Showers and isolated thunderstorms moved into the North Carolina mountains during the evening ahead of a cold front. One of the storms produced penny to ping pong ball size hail along the Madison/Buncombe County line.
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The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms moved into the North Carolina mountains during the evening ahead of a cold front. One of the storms produced penny to ping pong ball size hail along the Madison/Buncombe County line.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 6, 9:47 PM EST, 1 hour 2 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 947 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Well above normal temperatures continue through the weekend. A cold front will push through the area late Sunday, ushering in much cooler temperatures Monday. Unsettled weather conditions will likely persist through most of next week, as a front stalls over the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 945 PM... Key Messages: 1) Supercell thunderstorms are moving thru East TN and will pose a severe threat at least to the immediate NC/TN border 11 PM to midnight. 2) Scattered showers or even an isolated t-storm may occur between midnight and 4 AM across our Piedmont zones. This activity likely will be elevated in nature and severe threat will be small but nonzero. 3) Well Above Normal Temperatures Continue Friday Flat upper trough will swing thru the Great Lakes tonight, ushering in just subtle height falls across the forecast area. An associated cold front will lay over the area from the north overnight, and may stall roughly half way thru the forecast area by daybreak Friday. The sfc cold front is in middle TN now, and within the warm sector ahead of it, about 500 J/kg are analyzed in the Knoxvlle area, along with ~200 m2/s2 of ESRH, and a couple of supercells are present there. This activity is timed to reach the NC/TN border around 1030-11 PM, but will encounter increasingly weak instability as it moves toward the mountains. Effective shear will persist but the storms would appear likely to become elevated. At the very least a severe hail and strong to severe wind threat may develop from Haywood to Yancey counties. Not confident any threat would extend further east, but given the strong organization particularly of the storm now over Knoxville, can't completely rule it out. Scattered remnant showers and perhaps an isolated elevated t-storm are expected in the lee of the mountains, southeast to about the I-85 corridor where most guidance allows the activity to fizzle. PoPs will fall below slight-chance by daybreak. Temps still look to be about 20-25 degrees above normal overnight under mostly cloudy skies. Most guidance depicts more of a lull in activity in the morning than we previously advertised, so PoPs were reduced below slight chance 6 AM to about 10 AM. The front is forecast to stall roughly along the SC/NC border Friday, as flow remains zonal aloft. Westerly downslope flow should help scour out any stratus that forms Friday morning, with some cumulus lingering across the southern half of the forecast area into the aftn hours. A few showers may develop in the southern zones, but overall, it is expected to be dry. Highs will be 15-20 deg above normal. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 213 PM EST Thursday... Key Messages: 1) Stalled Front on Saturday may lead to a wide range of temperatures 2) A return to Well Above Normal Temperatures on Saturday 3) Low rain chances outside the mountains for the weekend More uncertainty than usual for the weekend forecast because of the presence of a boundary strung out west-east across the region, stuck under a quasi-zonal flow aloft. Guidance is in decent agreement with a weak sfc wave moving along the front located across the southern part of the forecast area Friday evening. Forcing will be practically nil but moisture will be pooled across the frontal zone, and some weak low level warm advection/upglide will develop in the evening, which warrants holding onto a modest precip chance across most of the region. The model blend appears to be overdone in this regard, so the fcst undercuts it by 10-20 pct, thinking the NAM Nest has a good depiction of what to expect. Low temps should be around 10 degrees above normal. Saturday looks like a tricky temp fcst. At the sfc, a weak high will move across the Mid-Atlantic and should ridge down across the area, which ordinarily might suggest a weak hybrid cold air damming scenario, but the forcing for precip is nearly non-existant and the models suggest redeveloping the frontal boundary as a warm front much farther north across VA as a low pressure system moves up the OH River Valley. That being the case, warm advection would stream northward across the fcst area and we might be well above normal. However, remnant cool pools are notoriously stubborn across the foothills/NW Piedmont at this time of year and this situation, which would act to keep temps much cooler. This day could feature a tight gradient in temps from south to north, which is indicated in our forecast, but areas along/north of I-85 could see our forecast being off by 10-15 degrees for highs rather easily. After the low passes, the associated cold front is expected to run up against the west side of the mtns where it will get stuck at least temporarily. That yields a tight gradient in precip chances between likely/categorical on the TN border to nothing east of the mtns. Will the front get pushed over the mtns early enough on Sunday to affect the high temps? Guidance says not and shows high temps well into the 70s again outside the mtns. That seems to have worked out lately and was generally accepted, but this too could go right down the tubes if the front moves through early enough. Assuming it gets warm Sunday, don't get used to it. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 259 PM EST Thursday...looks like Monday might come as a shock to the system. Revenge of the Wedge. A large continental sfc high dropping down over the nrn Plains should effectively drive a cold front across the region either late in the day on Sunday or at least Sunday night, with isentropic upglide developing to the north of the front as the high bridges over the mtns and sets up a classic cold air damming wedge by sunrise Monday. Oh what a difference a day makes. Monday looks cloudy and wet with temps that struggle to get out of the 40s across NC and in the 50s across the south...some 15-20 degrees colder than Sunday. A chunk of the parent high scoots past to the north Monday night and offshore Tuesday, while the old boundary reactivates and a wave moves along it. Precip chances go way up and temps stay on the below normal while this sorts itself out. The timing of this next wave passing to the north and dragging a cold front across the region is uncertain and would affect the main high prob time, either Tuesday or Wednesday. A brief break in the action is likely during mid-week once the first wave passes, but by this time the srn stream is active and spins up another wave on the old boundary either over the srn Plains or lower MS valley late in the week. Precip could redevelop right away Wednesday night and continue into Thursday, with another cold air damming wedge possible. All this keeps precip probs high, temps below normal, and uncertainty high through the period. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Warm upglide is beginning to generate stratus near VFR/MVFR threshold near KAND and this may soon expand east to KGSP/KGMU; some mountain wave stratocu will also be seen over KAVL this evening but likely VFR for some time. Cold front now moving thru eastern KY and middle TN will push east of the NC mountains after midnight. Clouds are expected to lower prior to the fropa which may induce an MVFR cig. Guidance generally shows small instability along the front, which will translate to a chance of SHRA at all terminals, and even a small chance of TSRA at KAVL/KHKY. Overall precip chance is perhaps a bit low for a TEMPO, but there is also a possibility of a brief drop to low MVFR or even IFR along the front, so wrapped both into TEMPOs. Winds will veer to NW around that time also. Low clouds will scatter at/after daybreak in the wake of the front so just FEW-SCT VFR clouds for most of the daytime hrs. Front will stall by Fri evening and upglide may redevelop over it, so cigs and possibly restrictions will return after 00z Sat. Confidence not high enough for a mention of restrictions this far out. Outlook: Periodic showers possible through early next week and could bring associated restrictions to visibility along with periods of low ceilings. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && SYNOPSIS...ARK NEAR TERM...ARK/Wimberley SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...Wimberley
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 400 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2025 GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ062>065-068>072-082-507>510-SCZ008>014- 019-101>109-072100- Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Macon-Southern Jackson- Transylvania-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus- Union-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains- Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester- Greenwood-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains- Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville- Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg- 400 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont North Carolina, western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-501>506-072100- Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood- Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Caldwell Mountains- Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains- Eastern McDowell- 400 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Piedmont North Carolina and western North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms develop this evening across portions of western North Carolina, with the severe threat possible around midnight. The main hazard is damaging wind gusts although hail near or up to an inch in diameter is possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.
The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 78 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:48 UTC.
2 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Public measured ping-pong ball sized hail near the intersection of Meadows Town Rd and Sandy Mush Rd.
Spotter reported 3/4 inch hail along Bear Creek Rd.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, February 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1238456, 1238457.