A weak trough to the west, moving into the Tennessee and Ohio Valley regions, brought several upper-level disturbances across western portions of central North Carolina. Within a broad area of very anomalous moisture, several instances of flash flooding were reported across Stanly County during the afternoon hours.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
A weak trough to the west, moving into the Tennessee and Ohio Valley regions, brought several upper-level disturbances across western portions of central North Carolina. Within a broad area of very anomalous moisture, several instances of flash flooding were reported across Stanly County during the afternoon hours.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 5, 6:08 AM EST, 6 hours 27 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 708 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure will extend across the Middle Atlantic this week, although a series of disturbances in moist, southwesterly flow aloft will pass overhead. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 400 AM Tuesday... * Cloudy and unseasonably cool, with stratiform rain that will focus over the Piedmont A mid/upr-level trough will weaken while edging slowly ewd across the OH and TN Valleys, while a ridge will strengthen over the wrn Atlantic. Between the two, moist swly flow will direct a series of convectively-enhanced disturbances from the cntl Gulf Coast newd and across the wrn Carolinas and VA. In fact, observed PWs at or above 2" were in approximately the 90th percentile upstream at LIX, FFC, and JAX last evening; and this plume of moisture will continue newd and into cntl and ern NC through tonight. At the surface, Canadian high pressure will remain over the Middle Atlantic, with unseasonably cool and stable, nely flow directed across cntl NC. While a synoptic front will waver over s-cntl GA and coastal SC, differential diabatic heating along the ern edge of waves of rain and lower ceilings over the Piedmont will favor continued wedge frontogenesis over the srn and wrn Piedmont - a process already underway and evident as a surface convergence axis from near CAE to RCZ to BUY in surface observations during the past 2-3 hours. Lift/rain, lower ceilings, and diabatically-enhanced CAD will remain focused and maximized across the wrn/srn Piedmont, where temperatures will likely not rise more than a few degrees from 08Z readings in the mid 60s to around 70. Meanwhile, influence from the wrn Atlantic ridge will maintain mainly dry but variably cloudy, and warmer conditions in the 80s, through the Coastal Plain. A few elevated convective elements like those already observed in the developing wedge regime over nrn GA and the Upstate of SC this morning, fueled by weak elevated instability, warrant a slight chance of thunder in the vicinity of the wedge front (ie. over the srn and wrn Piedmont) by tonight-Wed morning, where a Marginal to Slight risk of excessive rain will also exist. Low temperatures will be a couple of degrees milder but still in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 242 AM Tuesday... * Below normal temperatures continue * Off and on rain/showers with embedded thunder. Chances for excessive rain anywhere but highest over the western Piedmont/Triad region. A Flood Watch may be needed for portions of the area The wedge of cooler air will remain in place on Wed as a 1030 mb high continues to extend down into the Carolinas and southern Appalachians from ME and SE Canada. A coastal front will linger south of the region. Aloft, troughing will be across the TN valley to just west of the southern Appalachians. Isentropic ascent atop the wedge from the low/mid levels will favor unsettled weather with off and on rain/showers. The wettest period looks to be in the morning to early afternoon time frame, when central NC is in the right-entrance region of a 50-65 kt upper-jet located over the Mid- Atlantic. Frontogenetical forcing will maximize at this time across the western Piedmont and Triad, when precipitable water values approach the climatological maximum of 2+ inches. WPC has placed all of the region in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall, though the best chance appears across the Triad and western Piedmont. The 00z HREF paints the highest QPF in our western areas. The band of precipitation should weaken in the afternoon as models show forcing waning with the upper-jet. However, afternoon to early evening showers, with some embedded thunder, will be possible in our eastern zones along the wedge and sea-breeze boundary. Cannot rule out isolated to scattered rain/showers Wed night nearly anywhere with lingering isentropic ascent, but confidence on amounts are low at this time frame. Highs Wed should be well below normal, with quite a range in values from the low 70s NW to mid 80s in Sampson Co. Lows should be in the mid 60s NW to upper 60s SE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 242 AM Tuesday... * Below normal temperatures into Sun, with returning heat and humidity early next week * An unsettled pattern, particularly in the Thu to Sat time frame, though uncertainty regarding potential tropical development off the SE coast is high for low confidence The cool wedge of high pressure of roughly 1028 mb extending down from ME on Thu will gradually weaken and shift to the east over the N. Atlantic by the upcoming weekend. Aloft, broad troughing over the SE US will be in place into early Sat. By Sun and into early next week, ridging aloft and at the surface will build from the southwest Atlantic to favor a return to heat and humidity next week. Much of our rain chances Thu to Sat may largely depend on what happens with a potential developing offshore low off the SE US coast sometime late Thu or early Fri. NHC currently forecasts a 30-percent chance of tropical development. Much of the guidance is still somewhat dispersive on its track and intensity. The ECENS shows a broad envelope of tracks into SC, NC, or staying offshore of the NC coast. For what it is worth, the 00z ECMWF/CMC hug the system along the Outer Banks late Fri thru Sat, with the 00z GFS more muted in its response. The 12z ECMWF took the system up into central NC. Thus, low confidence overall at this point. Nevertheless, increasing east to northeasterly moist flow at H850 is favored north of the system Thu thru Sat, favoring the daily chances for showers and some embedded storms. Highs should be below normal during this time in the upper 70s NW to low/mid 80s elsewhere. As we get into Sun and early next week, guidance tends to favor the ridging building west from the Atlantic, returning us to a more typical summertime pattern with diurnal chances for showers and storms. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s look to return by Mon. && .AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 705 AM Tuesday... Periods of rain will focus over the Piedmont, heaviest and steadiest and with lowest (IFR) restrictions at INT/GSO, through this afternoon. Improving conditions to MVFR will then be possible as the heavier rain at least temporarily tapers off after 18-19Z. Another wave of rain and flight restrictions may arrive/redevelop overnight- Wed morning. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail, but with multi- layered cloudiness and a chance of light, VFR rain. Outlook: Areas of stratiform rain and flight restrictions will continue over the Piedmont through Wed-Wed night, as a series of disturbances in moist, swly flow aloft pass overhead. Overnight- morning IFR-MVFR ceilings will also be favored over the Piedmont through most of the week. Both the probability of rain and flight restrictions will be less at ern sites. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...MWS SHORT TERM...Kren LONG TERM...Kren AVIATION...MWS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 619 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025 NCZ021-022-038-039-073-074-061030- Forsyth-Guilford-Davidson-Randolph-Stanly-Montgomery- 619 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. There is a Slight, level 2 of 4 risk of excessive rain through tonight, which means scattered instances of flash flooding will be possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. There is a Marginal, level 1 of 4 risk of excessive rain Wednesday, which means isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. NCZ007>011-023>028-040>043-075>078-083>086-088-089-061030- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Alamance-Orange-Durham- Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Moore-Lee- Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson- 619 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. There is a Marginal, level 1 of 4 risk of excessive rain Wednesday, which means isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.
The Columbia radar (KCAE), 150 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:33 UTC.
4 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
High water was over Love Mill Road. The road was impassable.
Flooding was reported across Bethel Church Road. The road was impassable.
Flooding was reported across Coley Store Road. The road was impassable.
High water was reported over Nelson Mountain Road. The road was impassable.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, August 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1280448, 1280449, 1280450, 1280451.