Within a very moist airmass, weak disturbances aloft from a trough to the northwest and tied to a southward moving cold front, showers and storms developed in the evening hours. Several reports of flash flooding were reported across Wake County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
Within a very moist airmass, weak disturbances aloft from a trough to the northwest and tied to a southward moving cold front, showers and storms developed in the evening hours. Several reports of flash flooding were reported across Wake County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 14, 7:20 PM EST, 2 hours 53 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 820 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A series of disturbances in anomalously moist, west southwesterly flow aloft will move across the Carolinas through tonight, during which time a weak area of low pressure will track across southeastern NC. A surface trough and weak backdoor cold front will move across NC Friday and Friday night, with following dry and seasonably warm high pressure for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 335 PM Thursday... Principal features of interest through tonight will be a series of MCVs stretching through the Coastal Plain of NC to the Pee Dee of SC, with the srn-most accompanied by a weak area of low pressure that will track across sern NC, and offshore early Friday. Forcing for ascent, and the focus for showers and storms, will result along and just east of the track these feature through ern NC and the adjacent, RAH Coastal Plain. A belt of unseasonably strong, 30-35 kts of mid-level (700-500 mb) wswly flow will provide adequate shear for at least transient rotating/super-cells, particularly where surface winds back to nely along and just north of the track of the surface low, and where shear vectors and hodographs will consequently be elongated. Several such cells, with 25-30 kt rotational velocities as low as ~3-5 thousand ft ARL, have already resulted in that parameter space over the SC Pee Dee, where VWP-derived hodographs earlier at CAE and more recently at LTX and MHX have sampled 100-150 m2/s2 of 0-3 km SRH - adequate for a low-end tornado risk. SPC objective/meso-analysis data appear to be under-representing this environment. This threat should be confined in cntl NC over Sampson Co., and perhaps ern Cumberland and Wayne Co. The greatest risk of excessive rain/flash flooding (Slight/ Level 2 of 4) in these areas appears to be materializing in a relatively more-concentrated area of convection over Down East and Tidewater NC, where 12Z HREF neighborhood probabilities for rainfall amounts were maximized. Other, generally scattered showers and storms have developed in the past few hours from the Blue Ridge to a lee trough from near RIC to GSO to CLT. Convection in these areas, and immediately downstream in a destabilizing environment over the NC Piedmont, will occur in an area of weaker shear and steering flow to the west of the MCVs. Associated slower cell motions in this environment, and a tendency for backbuilding, will result in a risk of locally heavy rain and isolated instances of flash flooding, especially in urban areas, until around midnight. Additionally, higher DCAPE of up to 750 J/kg in these areas may support strong to locally damaging downburst winds from associated pulse cells until instability and low-level lapse rates weaken this evening. Otherwise, at least partial overnight clearing, and light nely flow around the slow-passing surface low, will likely result in the development of areas of low overcast and fog, with continued very muggy conditions in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 PM Thursday... Nely flow will envelop cntl NC behind an area of low pressure that will drift offshore and away from the NC coast Fri. Despite the nely flow, it will remain moist and moderately-unstable with diurnal heating well into the 80s. As such, one more day of scattered showers/storms will result, with a Marginal (Level 1 of 4) risk of excessive rain/flash flooding supported by continued 125-150% of normal PWs. Reinforcing nely flow behind a weak, backdoor cold front should support widespread low overcast Fri night-Sat morning, with low temperatures in the lwr-mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 220 PM Thursday... * Relatively dry Sunday and Monday, with a return of diurnally driven convection by mid/late week. * Erin may make its closest pass of the NC coast Wed/Thu, while most guidance continues to keep it offshore. Aloft, the center of the anti-cyclone will generally stay over the srn/cntl Plains over the weekend, drifting slowly westward to over the Four Corners by Tue/Wed where it will remain through at least Thu. In the wake of a s/w passage Sat, the mid-level ridge will build ewd into the area Sun/Sun night. Another s/w riding the ridge may move across the area Sun night/Mon, but for now it appears to just glance the area, weakening as it moves across the mid-Atlantic. As the high shifts wwd, additional disturbances may track across the region as they ride along its periphery. At the surface, a transient ridge should slide slowly sewd across the area Sat/Sat night, while a low sits off the Carolina coast. The ridge will shift offshore on Sun, as a trough moves quickly sewd across the mid-Atlantic Sun night and Mon. In the wake of the trough, high pressure may build across the region once again Mon/Mon night. There is still some uncertainty for Tue-Thu, both wrt the strength and location of the ridge over the area and the interaction of that ridge with Erin as it makes its approach. For now, most guidance shows the ridge holding over the East Coast and Erin remaining offshore. However, it is still a bit far out in the forecast for any certainties at this time. Precipitation: Some showers/storm will be possible on Sat, with a relatively dry period expected Sun and Mon. As the ridge aloft shifts westward and more disturbances track across the area, chances for diurnal convection will increase, but for now remain near climatology for Tue-Thu, noting the uncertainty mentioned above. Temperatures: Highs in the mid 80s to low 90s through Tue, perhaps decreasing a bit mid/late week. Lows in the mid 60s to low 70s through the period. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 820 PM Saturday... VFR conditions are generally expected over the next several hours. An exception to this will be if any rain showers pass over a terminal, with the best chance at RWI. However, rain chances should diminish over the next few hours with the loss of daytime heating. Late tonight, low stratus and areas of fog should develop, bringing sub-VFR restrictions to eastern portions of the CWA. IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibilities are likely at FAY/RWI/RDU, with a lesser chance at INT/GSO. Any restrictions should lift by mid morning with daytime heating. Friday afternoon, isolated to scattered showers and embedded storms are possible along a backdoor cold front. The best chance currently looks to be at RWI, so included a PROB30 for -SHRA in the afternoon and evening hours. Outlook: A backdoor cold front will settle south and across cntl NC Fri-Fri night, with following, moist nely flow that will favor widespread IFR-MVFR ceilings Fri night-early Sat. While widely scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible along and ahead of that front Fri, mainly dry conditions will follow for the weekend. Another backdoor cold front may reinforce nely flow and the risk of IFR-MVFR ceilings Sun night-early Mon. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...MWS SHORT TERM...MWS LONG TERM...KCP AVIATION...Helock/MWS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 437 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 NCZ011-027-028-042-043-078-089-150845- Halifax-Nash-Edgecombe-Johnston-Wilson-Wayne-Sampson- 437 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Locally heavy rainfall and scattered instances of flash flooding will be possible in showers and thunderstorms through this evening. Additionally, an isolated strong to severe storm is possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Isolated areas of excessive rain will remain possible through Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>077-083>086-088-150845- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange- Durham-Franklin-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Stanly-Montgomery- Moore-Lee-Harnett-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland- 437 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated pockets of flash flooding will be possible in showers and thunderstorms through this evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Isolated areas of excessive rain will remain possible through Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
644 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025
NCZ011-027-028-142345-
Edgecombe NC-Nash NC-Halifax NC-
644 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL PORTIONS OF HALIFAX COUNTY THROUGH 745
PM EDT...
At 644 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Halifax, moving southeast at 5 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Rocky Mount, Tarboro, Halifax, Scotland Neck, Enfield, Weldon,
Whitakers, Hobgood, Speed, and Leggett.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3609 7731 3600 7741 3598 7739 3583 7776
3584 7778 3629 7785 3642 7755 3637 7755
3634 7759 3632 7757 3630 7754 3632 7744
3626 7741 3624 7738 3621 7738 3616 7727
3612 7724 3612 7725 3610 7723
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 331DEG 6KT 3628 7760
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
PWBSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
711 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025
NCZ007>010-024>026-041-150015-
Franklin NC-Vance NC-Durham NC-Warren NC-Person NC-Wake NC-Orange NC-
Granville NC-
711 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025
...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT EASTERN
PERSON...VANCE... WARREN...GRANVILLE...NORTHERN DURHAM AND
NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM EDT...
At 709 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Roxboro, moving southeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Durham, Chapel Hill, Henderson, Oxford, Roxboro, Creedmoor,
Louisburg, Warrenton, and Wake Forest.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3651 7790 3644 7792 3638 7791 3630 7794
3598 7816 3588 7901 3643 7905 3654 7861
3654 7791
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 324DEG 21KT 3642 7891
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
PWBSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
942 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025
NCZ010-011-026>028-041>043-150245-
Edgecombe NC-Nash NC-Johnston NC-Franklin NC-Warren NC-Wake NC-
Halifax NC-Wilson NC-
942 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025
...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN WARREN...NASH...
EDGECOMBE...HALIFAX...NORTHEASTERN WAKE...WILSON...NORTHEASTERN
JOHNSTON AND CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 PM EDT...
At 941 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of thunderstorms
with heavy rain and frequent lightning extending from near
Wake Forest and Louisburg to Halifax, moving southeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Rocky Mount, Roanoke Rapids, Tarboro, Smithfield, Nashville,
Louisburg, Halifax, Wilson, Wake Forest, and Zebulon.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3609 7731 3600 7741 3592 7736 3550 7833
3595 7854 3624 7804 3649 7778 3648 7764
3644 7762 3641 7755 3637 7755 3634 7759
3632 7757 3630 7754 3632 7744 3626 7741
3624 7738 3621 7738 3616 7727 3611 7723
TIME...MOT...LOC 0141Z 321DEG 13KT 3611 7812
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
PWBThe Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 19 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:14 UTC.
5 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Water was over the road under the bridge at Raleigh Union Station.
Water was over Atlantic Avenue at Hodges Street.
Water was over Wake Forest Road near McNeil Street.
Water was reported over Avent Ferry Road, resulting in flooding.
A water rescue was reported on Trinity Road and Corporate Center Drive.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, August 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1280630, 1280633, 1280635, 1280636, 1280638.