Heat in Texas, August 14 to 20, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
548 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

 - Oppressive heat is expected to return to much of the region
   today, with heat indices nearing/exceeding 105 degrees. Thus, a
   Heat Advisory remains in effect areawide through early this
   evening.

 - Scattered convection will again develop today over Lower East
   Texas, North Louisiana, and Southern Arkansas, which may
   provide some relief to the heat.

 - The oppressive heat will continue this weekend through at least
   mid week next week, with heat headlines likely each day.
   Isolated to scattered convection will remain possible each day
   though which may brief some relief to the heat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

The early morning water vapor imagery indicates weak troughing/a
shear axis aloft drifting E across the Ozarks SW into Ern OK/Nrn
and Cntrl TX this morning, with a considerable wedge of drier air
noted along and behind the trough axis which has begun to mix E
into SW AR/NE TX. Meanwhile, the H500 reflection of this shear
axis is tilted farther E from the Mid-South region SW through
Cntrl and extreme SW AR into extreme NE into ECntrl TX. While the
evening convection has long since diminished across the region
Wednesday evening, satellite imagery does reveal that some
elevated cu has begun to redevelop just SE of this shear axis
across portions of E TX/N LA within an environment indicate of
PW's near and in excess of 2 inches, with the potential for
isolated convection redeveloping again over these areas through
and after daybreak this morning. However, the entrainment of drier
air aloft should help to limit the extent of convection, which
may translate through the afternoon over much of the region once
heating is maximized. Again, the NBM remains quite bullish with
pops this afternoon, which has done poorly in recent days, and
have again undercut these numbers by as much as 20%, more in line
with the mid chance pops that have been consistent with earlier
runs of MOS. Did maintain slight chance pops through the early
evening for Lower E TX into N LA/extreme Srn AR although the
convection should diminish earlier than what has occurred the last
few evenings.

Given the very moist air mass still in place across the region,
dewpoints will again struggle to mix out, with strong heating
resulting in max temps climbing into the mid and upper 90s over
much of the area. Thus, attendant heat indices should range from
105-110 degrees areawide today, although some relief in the
oppressively hot conditions is possible in and near the convection
that develops. Have maintained the Heat Advisory areawide,
although conditions may be more marginal across extreme SE
OK/adjacent sections of SW AR.

Dirty upper ridging noted early this morning over the Four Corners
Region remains progged to continue shifting E while amplifying
over much of the Cntrl and Srn Plains late tonight/Friday,
shunting the shear axis along an E to W position in VC of the
I-20 corridor. This feature should again focus the potential for
mainly diurnally driven isolated to scattered convection over
much of the region Friday. In addition, ridging aloft remains
progged to retrograde W across the Gulf Friday, allowing this
weakness aloft to persist over the area through at least the first
half of the upcoming weekend. The amplifying ridge will also
contribute to a gradual warming of afternoon temps nearing the
upper 90s/century mark this weekend into at least midweek next
week, with the likelihood of heat headlines continuing each day
through the period. However, the potential for isolated to widely
scattered afternoon/early evening convection each day may bring
some relief to the oppressive heat.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

A few isolated showers were noted across S AR and also across EC
LA and across far Deep East Texas attm with a general
northeastward movement this morning. Best chance to see any
morning convection should be in the vicinity of the ELD and/or
MLU terminal so did prevail VCTS at those terminals only to begin
the 12z TAF package. Otherwise, our airspace will have to wait for
daytime heating to interact with the downstream effects of an
upper level trough across the Middle Red River Valley to combine
with the plentiful atmospheric moisture in place. Thus, have
introduced VCTS at all but the TXK terminal beginning at 18z and
will continue that through 02z this evening. Look for mostly
variable winds today with speeds generally under 10kts outside of
convectively induced outflow winds.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Spotter activation should not be needed through tonight. However,
locally gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall will be possible in
the stronger storms. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  77  98  77 /  40  20  30  10
MLU  96  75  96  75 /  40  20  40  10
DEQ  96  72  96  72 /  10  10  20  10
TXK  98  76  98  76 /  20  10  30  10
ELD  96  73  95  73 /  40  20  40  10
TYR  96  76  97  75 /  20  10  20  10
GGG  95  75  97  74 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  95  74  96  74 /  40  20  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...13