NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 8, 4:33 PM MST, 27 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area forecast discussion, May 8, 4:33 PM MST, 27 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
533 PM MDT Thu May 8 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 529 PM MDT Thu May 8 2025
- Higher flows will continue in rivers, creeks, arroyos, and water
low water crossings through the weekend, especially along the
east slopes of the Sangre De Cristo Mountains. Recent heavy snow
will continue to melt with any additional rainfall intensifying
the melt and runoff through Friday.
- Daily rounds of mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms will continue through Saturday favoring the high
terrain.
- Breezy to windy and dry conditions will develop Monday through
Wednesday. The strongest wind speeds are forecast on Tuesday when
there will be a 50 percent chance of wind gusts reaching 50 mph.
Areas in western New Mexico and the lower Rio Grande valley
will also observe low humidity and an increased risk for rapid
fire spread early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 252 PM MDT Thu May 8 2025
Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across the forecast
area this afternoon. A shortwave trough apparent on water vapor
imagery is the catalyst for the development, as modest moisture
(0.6" PWAT on the morning ABQ sounding) and surface heating also
lend a hand. Showers and storms are forecast to continue into the
afternoon and evening hours, where isolated pockets of heavy rain
may occur. The highest threat continues to reside on the HPCC burn
scar. While forecast rain amounts are not overly impressive, rising
temperatures and rain-on-snow events may lead to rapid snowmelt of
the recent hefty snow totals and contribute to localized flooding
impacts. Elsewhere, isolated shower development over the Ruidoso
complex have led to a few tenths of an inch over the burn scars,
though no impacts have been reported. HREF mean precipitation
continues light amounts over the area through 8pm tonight, so
continued monitoring will be needed for the potential of burn scar
flash flooding. However, the threat remains low through the area.
Overnight, areas of patchy fog may develop across the central
highlands and eastern plains, as well as in mountain valleys such as
Angel Fire.
The shortwave makes its way east moving into tomorrow, though
another disturbance traveling down the southerly flow works to
induce another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. PWATs
remain around the same, if not a few hundredths of an inch less
than today, though with a weaker disturbance in the area, shower
and storm coverage decreases from today. Northern areas remain
favored for precipitation, specifically around the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains. QPF remains light to limit concern for burn scar
flash flooding across HPCC, though snowmelt continues to remain a
larger threat for flooding concerns.&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 PM MDT Thu May 8 2025
Earlier this week, it was looking as though Saturday might be more
active, but the last several model runs continue to reduce the
chances for showers and storms, limiting things to the very far
northern mountains and along the AZ-NM border. Cells would look to
be very sparse and isolated with surface dewpoints continuing to
lower a few degrees, despite surface winds staying east
southeasterly. These anemic dewpoints and low PWATs will limit
rainfall footprints and the rainfall efficiency of showers and
storms. Despite this, any additional rainfall on recent late
season snowfall would hasten snow melt and runoff with increased
flows in creeks, streams, and rivers. High temperatures Saturday
would be fairly seasonable, running just slightly below in east
central to southeastern NM.
Into Sunday, a light wind field aloft will set up over NM as we
rest between the Pacific Northwest (offshore of British Columbia)
low and the Gulf coast low. Winds will veer southerly or
southwesterly with dewpoints quickly dropping in the southwestern
half of the state. This will shut down shower and storm prospects
for most aside from a stray cell or two near the NM-CO border in
the mountains.
The flow aloft then increases from the southwest into Monday, and
more-so into Tuesday as the low moves inland over the Great Basin.
The lee-side surface trough will begin to deepen Monday, closing
into a much deeper (986-988 mb) low on Tuesday. This will ramp up
the winds on Tuesday while dewpoints and humidity continue to
plummet. The Pacific front would then sweep across NM Wednesday
night into early Thursday as the parent low lifts into the
northern Rockies and eventually over the northern plains and
across the Canadian border. This will keep NM breezy to windy, and
after peaking on Monday, temperatures would gradually decrease
Tuesday, and more-so into Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 PM MDT Thu May 8 2025
Earlier this week, it was looking as though Saturday might be more
active, but the last several model runs continue to reduce the
chances for showers and storms, limiting things to the very far
northern mountains and along the AZ-NM border. Cells would look to
be very sparse and isolated with surface dewpoints continuing to
lower a few degrees, despite surface winds staying east
southeasterly. These anemic dewpoints and low PWATs will limit
rainfall footprints and the rainfall efficiency of showers and
storms. Despite this, any additional rainfall on recent late
season snowfall would hasten snow melt and runoff with increased
flows in creeks, streams, and rivers. High temperatures Saturday
would be fairly seasonable, running just slightly below in east
central to southeastern NM.
Into Sunday, a light wind field aloft will set up over NM as we
rest between the Pacific Northwest (offshore of British Columbia)
low and the Gulf coast low. Winds will veer southerly or
southwesterly with dewpoints quickly dropping in the southwestern
half of the state. This will shut down shower and storm prospects
for most aside from a stray cell or two near the NM-CO border in
the mountains.
The flow aloft then increases from the southwest into Monday, and
more-so into Tuesday as the low moves inland over the Great Basin.
The lee-side surface trough will begin to deepen Monday, closing
into a much deeper (986-988 mb) low on Tuesday. This will ramp up
the winds on Tuesday while dewpoints and humidity continue to
plummet. The Pacific front would then sweep across NM Wednesday
night into early Thursday as the parent low lifts into the
northern Rockies and eventually over the northern plains and
across the Canadian border. This will keep NM breezy to windy, and
after peaking on Monday, temperatures would gradually decrease
Tuesday, and more-so into Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 PM MDT Thu May 8 2025
Rain showers across much of northern and central NM with embedded
scattered thunderstorms over the central and south-central
highlands between KSXU to KSRR and KROW will steadily diminish in
coverage and intensity this evening. Clearing conditions will give
way to isolated areas of low ceilings and mist and fog over parts
of the highlands immediately east of the central mountain chain.
Amds may be necessary at KLVS if a spot of low clouds or fog
develop there tonight. Friday's afternoon showers and isolated
embedded thunderstorms will be limited to the northern mountains,
moving south late day and evening. Prevailing easterly surface
winds will reign supreme at most terminals through tomorrow, with
the exception of erratic gusts near showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 252 PM MDT Thu May 8 2025
Minimal critical fire weather risk throughout the next few days with
continued chances for precipitation, light winds, and higher
humidities. As heavy snow and rain fell over northern and eastern NM
over the past few days, ERCs remain well below the 50th percentile
in these areas. Critical fire weather conditions are favored to
return Monday and continue well into next week. Dry southwest winds
return as an upper level low moves into the area, which in turn
works to lower humidities to critical thresholds. Confidence is
highest in south central and southwest NM seeing critical fire
weather conditions through this period. Confidence is lower in
eastern NM as while winds and humidities are forecast to reach
critical fire weather thresholds, the recent precipitation may work
to counteract the drier conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 44 77 48 79 / 5 10 10 20
Dulce........................... 31 73 35 72 / 20 40 20 60
Cuba............................ 37 69 39 70 / 10 30 20 30
Gallup.......................... 33 75 37 75 / 0 10 5 30
El Morro........................ 38 70 42 70 / 0 10 5 20
Grants.......................... 35 73 38 73 / 5 10 5 10
Quemado......................... 37 73 42 73 / 5 10 5 20
Magdalena....................... 43 70 46 70 / 20 10 5 5
Datil........................... 39 69 42 70 / 20 5 5 10
Reserve......................... 37 80 39 79 / 0 10 5 20
Glenwood........................ 42 83 44 82 / 0 10 0 10
Chama........................... 31 66 34 66 / 20 40 30 60
Los Alamos...................... 42 67 45 68 / 10 40 10 30
Pecos........................... 38 64 39 69 / 10 40 10 20
Cerro/Questa.................... 35 66 37 68 / 10 20 10 40
Red River....................... 28 55 30 60 / 10 20 10 40
Angel Fire...................... 26 60 26 63 / 5 30 10 30
Taos............................ 33 69 34 70 / 10 20 10 30
Mora............................ 33 63 33 64 / 10 30 10 20
Espanola........................ 41 74 43 75 / 10 30 10 30
Santa Fe........................ 42 66 43 70 / 10 30 10 20
Santa Fe Airport................ 40 70 42 74 / 10 30 10 20
Albuquerque Foothills........... 49 74 51 76 / 10 20 10 10
Albuquerque Heights............. 46 76 49 76 / 10 20 10 5
Albuquerque Valley.............. 46 78 48 78 / 10 20 10 5
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 47 76 49 78 / 10 20 10 5
Belen........................... 43 78 45 79 / 10 10 5 0
Bernalillo...................... 46 77 48 78 / 10 20 10 10
Bosque Farms.................... 42 78 44 78 / 10 10 5 5
Corrales........................ 46 78 48 78 / 10 20 10 5
Los Lunas....................... 44 78 46 78 / 10 10 5 5
Placitas........................ 46 73 49 74 / 10 20 10 10
Rio Rancho...................... 46 76 49 76 / 10 20 10 5
Socorro......................... 48 80 50 80 / 20 10 5 0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 41 68 43 69 / 10 30 10 10
Tijeras......................... 42 70 44 72 / 10 30 10 5
Edgewood........................ 38 70 39 69 / 10 30 10 5
Moriarty/Estancia............... 36 70 34 72 / 20 20 5 5
Clines Corners.................. 38 64 38 66 / 20 20 5 0
Mountainair..................... 39 70 39 71 / 10 20 5 0
Gran Quivira.................... 38 69 39 70 / 20 10 5 0
Carrizozo....................... 46 73 44 75 / 30 10 0 0
Ruidoso......................... 40 65 40 67 / 40 20 0 0
Capulin......................... 34 63 37 68 / 5 5 0 5
Raton........................... 34 69 37 73 / 5 10 0 10
Springer........................ 35 69 37 72 / 5 10 0 5
Las Vegas....................... 36 66 37 68 / 20 30 10 10
Clayton......................... 42 69 42 73 / 5 0 0 0
Roy............................. 38 66 40 69 / 20 10 0 0
Conchas......................... 44 71 44 75 / 20 5 0 0
Santa Rosa...................... 43 69 43 72 / 20 5 0 0
Tucumcari....................... 45 70 44 74 / 20 0 0 0
Clovis.......................... 47 70 46 74 / 20 0 0 0
Portales........................ 46 71 44 74 / 20 5 0 0
Fort Sumner..................... 46 71 44 75 / 20 5 0 0
Roswell......................... 51 76 52 79 / 30 5 0 0
Picacho......................... 45 71 44 72 / 30 10 0 0
Elk............................. 42 71 42 69 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ214-215.
&&
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...24