Monsoon Moisture across central and eastern New Mexico along with a backdoor front entering northeast NM resulted in the development of scattered shower and thunderstorm activity across these portions of the state. A slow moving thunderstorm resulted in flash flooding on State Highway 76 near Chimayo.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
Monsoon Moisture across central and eastern New Mexico along with a backdoor front entering northeast NM resulted in the development of scattered shower and thunderstorm activity across these portions of the state. A slow moving thunderstorm resulted in flash flooding on State Highway 76 near Chimayo. Severe thunderstorms resulted in damaging wind gusts of up to 70 mph across Union and Harding County. Finally, mid to late evening thunderstorms resulted in some flash flooding at Bear Canyon near Ruidoso and in Portales.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 29, 12:26 PM MST, 1 hour 4 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 126 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 124 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025 - There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across northeast and portions of east central NM this afternoon and evening, with large hail and damaging winds being the primary threats. - Flash flood threat increases today through the weekend in central and eastern New Mexico as storm coverage and intensity trends higher. - An active Monsoon thunderstorm pattern will persist next week with a continued flash flood threat, especially on area burn scars. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Showers and thunderstorms have begun to initiate across the high terrain this afternoon, with already a couple of strong to severe storms forming. This activity has been well modeled, thinking back to CAM runs yesterday at this time. This bodes well for the confidence in development of numerous thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across much of the eastern plains. A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms continues across much of east central and northeast NM, where SBCAPE values exceed 3000 J/kg and bulk shear values bump up to 30-35kts. Primary hazards with any storm will be large hail and damaging wind gusts. Heavy rainfall is also a hazard with these storms, and the atmosphere is ripe for efficient rainfall rates. The ABQ 18z sounding produced a PWAT of 1.13" well into the 90th percentile. Model forecast soundings show PWATs increasing up to 1.5" across eastern NM, further showcasing the moist column of air that resides across the region. Storm motion is likely to be around 10-20mph to the east, which may be enough to move storms off of one area before it dumps enough rain to produce flash flooding. However, multiple rounds/training storms are very possible in this environment, as well as storms getting stuck on remnant boundaries. These factors would increase a flash flooding threat across much of eastern NM, where a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall is placed. HREF mean QPF shows areas of 1-2" across the TX bordering counties (Union, Quay, Curry, Roosevelt). This remains below the general flash flood guidance for the region, though instances of localized flash flooding is very possible. Though with the initial isolated nature expected this evening into tonight, have opted against a Flash Flood Watch for that area. Storms are expected to completely exit the area by midnight or so. Saturday is appearing to have a higher potential for flash flooding across the area, both on and off burn scars. For the Ruidoso area, while models kept the storms off of the scars for today (Friday), they have been painting initiation over the scars themselves for Saturday, increasing the risk of burn scar flash flooding. With that, a second Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the area, though has a good chance of ending earlier than Friday's given a low signal for any evening storms. For the HPCC burn scar, there is moderate confidence in late afternoon storms firing up in the area, but with not enough confidence and the higher rainfall amounts that the scar can absorb, have opted against a Watch this package and will let future shifts contemplate. Off of the scars, in eastern NM, model guidance has consistently painted an broken to organized band of thunderstorms moving through the area, mainly I-40 southward, in the late hours of Saturday night. PWAT values are forecast to remain near or above 1.5" allowing for efficient rainfall rates to continue. Forecast soundings also have shown the potential for a "long and skinny" CAPE profile, which continues to promote heavy and efficient rainfall. HREF mean rainfall for this system range around 0.5-2" given the potential broken nature of it. Antecedent wet soils from Friday's rainfall could exacerbate any flash flooding that may occur with this heavy rain. Also, given this is likely to occur overnight, folks should have multiple ways to receive warnings. While currently less of a concern, a forward propagating MCS could inherit strong to severe wind gusts, which is another hazard for folks to take note of. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025 The high pressure system that has sat over southern NM for the latter part of this week begins to shift westward, allowing for a slight pattern shift in our thunderstorms. With a more northwesterly flow, storm motions begin to take on a more southeasterly to southerly component. With the potential for easterly surface flow, this may work to increase shear across the area, allowing a few strong to potentially severe storms to form. Burn scar flash flooding also remains possible to likely, mainly across the Ruidoso area as storms continue to fire up along the Sacramento Mountains. A slight change from Saturday to Sunday is that, with the high pressure moving westward, the moisture settled in eastern NM gets siphoned into southern NM, greatly increasing the rain chances across the southern third of the state. Daily thunderstorms continue through much of next week as the high pressure rotates around the Great Basin, though will likely be closer to standard diurnal thunderstorms in a typical monsoon pattern. Models have been consistent in shoving a backdoor cold front through the state later next week, which would work to replenish moisture and increase storm chances. Overall, a daily and active thunderstorm pattern appears prone to continue through the next several days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the region today, mainly Continental Divide eastward. Most TAF sites are under PROB30s or TEMPOs based on expected surrounding shower and thunderstorm activity, with higher confidence in sites along and east of the central mountain chain. Storms are very likely to push eastward across eastern NM late afternoon and into this evening. Localized MVFR to short-lived IFR visibilities are possible in any storm. A few storms may be strong to severe, producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storm activity likely wanes and exits the state by 06z. Lower confidence tonight in a low stratus deck causing MFVR to IFR ceilings, but probabilities increase closer to the NM/TX border throughout the night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025 No critical fire weather conditions are expected for the next several days. Daily rounds of thunderstorms are likely across much of the state, mainly east of the Continental Divide. These will very likely leave large wetting footprints, with some locations experiencing localized flash flooding. Burn scar flash flooding also remains a concern, mainly in the Ruidoso area. Humidity recovery is expected to remain good to excellent for the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 58 84 57 87 / 5 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 43 82 44 84 / 10 10 5 10 Cuba............................ 51 81 52 80 / 20 10 0 20 Gallup.......................... 52 84 51 85 / 10 5 0 5 El Morro........................ 53 80 54 80 / 30 20 5 30 Grants.......................... 53 84 53 83 / 30 20 5 40 Quemado......................... 54 82 54 82 / 30 30 10 50 Magdalena....................... 58 82 59 79 / 50 40 30 70 Datil........................... 53 80 53 77 / 40 50 20 70 Reserve......................... 53 89 53 88 / 30 50 10 60 Glenwood........................ 58 92 59 90 / 20 50 20 70 Chama........................... 45 77 44 77 / 10 20 10 40 Los Alamos...................... 56 78 56 76 / 30 20 10 60 Pecos........................... 53 80 53 75 / 40 30 50 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 50 78 49 77 / 30 40 40 50 Red River....................... 43 68 41 66 / 30 50 50 60 Angel Fire...................... 38 72 37 69 / 30 50 50 60 Taos............................ 49 81 48 79 / 30 30 40 40 Mora............................ 48 76 48 70 / 40 40 60 70 Espanola........................ 56 86 56 84 / 30 10 20 40 Santa Fe........................ 57 81 57 77 / 40 20 30 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 55 84 56 81 / 30 10 20 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 66 87 65 85 / 50 20 20 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 63 89 64 87 / 50 10 20 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 62 91 65 89 / 50 10 10 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 64 89 64 87 / 50 10 10 20 Belen........................... 61 90 62 87 / 50 20 20 30 Bernalillo...................... 63 90 64 87 / 40 10 10 30 Bosque Farms.................... 60 90 61 87 / 50 10 20 30 Corrales........................ 63 90 64 88 / 50 10 10 30 Los Lunas....................... 62 90 64 87 / 50 10 20 30 Placitas........................ 61 85 61 83 / 40 10 20 30 Rio Rancho...................... 63 89 64 87 / 40 10 10 30 Socorro......................... 65 91 65 87 / 60 30 30 50 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 56 82 56 78 / 50 20 20 50 Tijeras......................... 58 83 59 80 / 50 20 20 50 Edgewood........................ 54 83 55 80 / 50 20 30 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 53 85 55 80 / 50 20 30 50 Clines Corners.................. 55 79 54 72 / 50 30 40 50 Mountainair..................... 56 83 56 77 / 60 30 30 60 Gran Quivira.................... 56 83 56 77 / 60 40 40 70 Carrizozo....................... 62 86 61 79 / 80 50 60 80 Ruidoso......................... 57 77 55 69 / 70 80 60 90 Capulin......................... 52 72 50 71 / 80 60 80 30 Raton........................... 52 76 51 75 / 50 70 70 40 Springer........................ 54 80 52 77 / 40 50 70 40 Las Vegas....................... 52 78 52 72 / 50 40 70 60 Clayton......................... 59 78 57 78 / 80 30 70 10 Roy............................. 55 78 54 75 / 70 40 80 30 Conchas......................... 62 85 61 81 / 80 30 90 30 Santa Rosa...................... 60 83 59 77 / 70 30 80 40 Tucumcari....................... 61 82 59 79 / 80 20 90 20 Clovis.......................... 64 87 62 82 / 80 40 90 40 Portales........................ 64 88 62 82 / 80 50 90 40 Fort Sumner..................... 63 88 62 81 / 70 30 90 30 Roswell......................... 68 92 66 83 / 70 50 80 50 Picacho......................... 61 85 60 77 / 70 70 70 80 Elk............................. 58 83 56 74 / 70 80 60 80 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ226. Flood Watch Saturday afternoon for NMZ226. && SHORT TERM...77 LONG TERM....77 AVIATION...77
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</html>Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
221 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025
NMZ233-292100-
Guadalupe County NM-
221 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN GUADALUPE COUNTY
UNTIL 3 PM MDT...
At 221 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southwest of Colonias, or 14 miles west of Santa Rosa, moving
northeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.
Locations impacted include...
Santa Rosa, Colonias and Santa Rosa Lake State Park.
This includes Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 252 and 280.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
Motorists can expect brief but sudden changes in visibility and
ponding of water on roadways as storms move through the area.
&&
LAT...LON 3482 10493 3498 10507 3522 10490 3522 10482
3521 10468 3496 10458
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 204DEG 13KT 3496 10493
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 TO 55 MPH
24Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
226 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025
NMZ233-237>239-292100-
Eastern Lincoln County NM-Guadalupe County NM-De Baca County NM-
Chaves County Plains NM-
226 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN...
SOUTHWESTERN DE BACA...SOUTH CENTRAL GUADALUPE AND NORTH CENTRAL
CHAVES COUNTIES UNTIL 3 PM MDT...
At 226 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 17
miles southwest of Ramon, or 27 miles east of Corona, moving east at
10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.
Locations impacted include...
Ramon and Mesa.
This includes the following highways...
Highway 285 between Mile Markers 152 and 194.
Highway 60 between Mile Markers 285 and 296.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
Motorists can expect brief but sudden changes in visibility and
ponding of water on roadways as storms move through the area.
&&
LAT...LON 3435 10529 3460 10487 3401 10436 3389 10522
3423 10547 3426 10544 3426 10531 3433 10531
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 259DEG 10KT 3411 10515
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
24The Albuquerque radar (KABX), 121 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:30 UTC.
3 flash flood, 3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rainfall from a slow moving thunderstorm resulted in rushing floodwaters across State Highway 76 near Mile Marker 8 in Chimayo.
The Mills Canyon RAWS measured a 70 mph wind gust from a severe thunderstorm.
The Union County emergency manager estimated 50 to 60 mph wind gusts at Clayton Lake State Park from a severe thunderstorm.
The ASOS at Clayton Municipal Airpark measured a 58 mph wind gust from a severe thunderstorm.
Runoff from heavy rainfall on the Salt burn scar resulted in about 1 foot of rushing water flooding grassland at the base of Bear Canyon, according to video from the Ruidoso emergency manager.
Heavy rainfall from thunderstorms resulted in flash flooding on numerous streets in Portales. This included 18th Street which was flooded with 6 to 8 inches of water over the road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, August 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-30. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1279813, 1279819, 1279820, 1279821, 1279822, 1279828.