A stalled front lingering over the area combined with daytime heating, high moisture and a passing short-wave trough aloft produced localized heavy rainfall.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
A stalled front lingering over the area combined with daytime heating, high moisture and a passing short-wave trough aloft produced localized heavy rainfall.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 28, 7:03 PM EST, 5 hours 27 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 803 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 753 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Main forecast update for tonight was to include rain chances across SE GA with approaching mid/upper level short wave trough energy. Expect some showers and isolated thunderstorms, but less thunderstorm risk compared to northeast FL given southeast GA is on the northern side of the meandering low level front. Diurnally enhanced convection will continue to fade across inland northeast Florida through 10-11 pm, with a resurgence of showers and storms near the coast and over the Atlantic waters toward daybreak as aforementioned short wave trough energy passes overhead, enhancing lift and coastal convergence near the lingering front. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible in coastal convection. With some partial clearing of skies inland, added patchy ground fog toward daybreak across the Suwannee River Valley and toward the Highway 301 corridor. Mild lows will range in the 70s for most locations with some upper 60s near the Altamaha River basin. && .NEAR TERM...through Tonight... Leftover showers this morning over parts of southeast GA and northeast FL waters are holding on early this afternoon, also sending some outflow south and southwestward. This outflow combined with the developing sea breeze and lingering frontal boundary over the southern part of the CWA will be the primary focus area for convection later this afternoon and evening. Some drier air still lingers in the upper levels and is also bleeding into southeast GA a bit from the north and west, which will likely keep convection to a minimum in these areas. However, PWATs are in the 1.7 to 1.9 inch range from about I-10 southward in northeast FL closer to the rather diffuse front, and therefore this is where we expect widely scattered to scattered showers and t'storms to develop this afternoon and evening. In addition to heavy downpours and some frequent lightning, some of the lingering/mixing dry air aloft could help boost downburst potential with any stronger storms later today, and therefore very isolated gusts to 40-55 mph will be possible. Otherwise, the further north and west you go today, generally the lower your rain chances will be with a mix of sun and clouds and high temps in the low 90s. With the more onshore flow, areas further east/northeast will average in the upper 80s to near 90, with some mid 80s right at the coast. Some showers will likely linger after sunset tonight thanks to the proximity of the front and any lingering mesoscale boundaries, especially near the coast where chances for showers and isolated thunder linger most of the night. Low temps will range from near 70 over interior southeast GA to low to mid 70s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM....SHORT TERM...Friday through Sunday night... A wet, unsettled pattern expected unfold this weekend. Broadly, aloft a steady cyclonic flow will leave the proverbial door open to energetic shortwaves which will tend to round the base off the broader flow mid-level flow field. Meanwhile at the surface, a stalled frontal zone will essentially be parked across northern FL throughout the weekend, acting as a focus for convective initiation each afternoon. Increasing moisture will fuel afternoon thunderstorms areawide Friday as the first shortwave rotates around the upper trough. PWAT values will surge up to two inches or more. Tying that in with weak storm motion, there will be potential for slow-moving downpours enhancing the risk of flooding. Additionally, a pool of cold air aloft will amplify instability as mid-level temps drop to -8C. Increasing buoyancy and localized low-level shear along the sea breeze may lead to mildly organized convection during the afternoon hours, especially for coastal counties in NE FL along the I-95 corridor. Cannot rule out the potential for isolated waterspouts or even quick spin up tornadoes along the coastal interface. By Saturday drier air will begin to work farther south into SE GA, reducing chances for rain there; however, chances will remain above normal across NE FL where the stationary boundary will linger and trigger another afternoon of numerous showers and storms. A second burst of shortwave energy will rotate down and push overhead Saturday night through Sunday. The timing of this wave aloft will be a strong indicator if the associated surface front will push through the entire area before instability can develop ahead of it Sunday afternoon. Based on current guidance, it appears there will be a window in the afternoon where sufficient instability and shear will develop, mainly across north-central FL, and encourage another afternoon of thunderstorms, some potentially becoming strong. Lowering heights, cloudy skies, and rain will put the lid on temps with highs staying under 90 and topping out in the low to mid 80s through the weekend (running about 5-10 degrees below normal). With the diffuse boundary and light low-level flow over the next couple mornings, patchy fog development will be possible and may become potentially dense where heavy downpours occurred the afternoon prior. && .LONG TERM...Labor Day through next Thursday... Cooler and wetter than normal conditions are set to continue through the middle of next week with a large trough situated across the eastern US and a negative anomaly in mid-level heights. Tough to say which day, but there could be another day or two where there will be an increased threat of strong to severe storms as shortwave energy once again rotates through. Below normal temps continue through Wednesday with increasing trends Thursday and into next weekend as the upper trough deamplifies. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 753 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Low level MVFR clouds will be possible but transient at terminals this evening with VCSH. Best potential for restrictions will be at GNV, VQQ and SGJ near the meandering surface front. Easterly winds will become near calm inland overnight. Coastal shower potential increases after 06z with inland fog. Add TEMPO for MVFR restrictions at GNV and VQQ between 07-12z, with low stratus potential. After daybreak Friday, coastal showers increase with isolated t'storm potential. Confidence in rain at SSI still < 30% for Friday, but did include PROB30s for northeast FL terminals with VCTS beginning around 15-17z for coastal terminals to 16-18z for inland terminals. The only prevailing VCSH after 18z was for GNV. ENE winds increase through Friday morning with speeds near 10 kts at the coast to 6-8 kts inland into the afternoon. Slow storm motion and stronger dynamics tomorrow will bring both an increased risk of strong to severe storms in the afternoon and early evening as well as localized heavy rainfall. && .MARINE... Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 A frontal boundary will continue to meander near or over northeast FL waters through the weekend as a ridge of high pressure holds steady just north of the boundary. Northeast to easterly flow will continue north of the front, as well as convergent showers and isolated thunderstorms with chances and coverage expected to increase Friday and through the weekend. Another cold front will move down the coast early next week bringing elevated northeasterly winds and seas. Rip Currents: Rip current risk is moderate through Friday as onshore flow continues daily. High risk is expected Sunday and Monday as onshore flow strengthens. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 200 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Scattered to numerous showers and some storms expected to develop through the day with heaviest rainfall potential expected east of Highway 301, but especially along the coast this morning. Rainfall chances remains elevated into Friday and over the weekend. However, the threat of numerous to widespread rainfall flooding remains toward the low chance range, for the moment, so a flash flood watch is not anticipated at this time. Nonetheless, poor drainage areas and locations near the coast and the St Johns River Basin are more susceptible to localized rainfall flooding. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 90 69 87 69 / 20 20 30 30 SSI 86 76 85 74 / 30 20 40 30 JAX 90 73 87 72 / 50 30 60 30 SGJ 89 75 86 74 / 70 40 60 40 GNV 93 73 88 72 / 70 40 70 20 OCF 92 73 89 73 / 50 30 70 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1040 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025
FLZ038-138-290315-
Coastal Flagler FL-Inland Flagler FL-
1040 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN FLAGLER COUNTY THROUGH
1115 PM EDT...
At 1040 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Pierson, moving east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts around 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Palm Coast, Bunnell, and Espanola.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 2941 8115 2926 8115 2926 8141 2927 8142
2940 8142 2939 8146 2950 8146 2952 8117
2942 8113
TIME...MOT...LOC 0240Z 259DEG 12KT 2935 8139
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CORLESSSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1133 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025
FLZ038-138-290400-
Coastal Flagler FL-Inland Flagler FL-
1133 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN FLAGLER COUNTY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT EDT...
At 1133 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bunnell, moving east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts around 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Palm Coast, Flagler Beach, Bunnell, Beverly Beach, and Espanola.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 2946 8110 2946 8112 2943 8110 2942 8114
2941 8115 2930 8115 2935 8135 2953 8137
2954 8111 2951 8110
TIME...MOT...LOC 0333Z 275DEG 12KT 2943 8122
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CORLESSPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1145 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1100 PM Rain 5 ESE Andalusia 29.46N 81.39W
08/28/2025 M2.00 Inch Flagler FL Public
Flagler County Assist related a public
report of 2 inches of rainfall in the
Daytona North area, which is about 10 miles
west of Bunnell.
&&
NelsonPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1209 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1157 PM Rain 5 SE Crescent City 29.39N 81.47W
08/28/2025 M2.21 Inch Putnam FL Mesonet
Private weather station in Crescent City
recorded 2.21 inches of rainfall from around
8:30 PM through around 10:30 PM.
&&
NelsonPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1210 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 AM Rain 3 N Bunnell 29.51N 81.25W
08/29/2025 M2.35 Inch Flagler FL Mesonet
Private weather station in Palm Coast
recorded 2.35 inches of rainfall from around
10 PM through around 11:45 PM.
&&
NelsonPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1212 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1156 PM Rain 4 S Palm Coast 29.52N 81.22W
08/28/2025 M3.26 Inch Flagler FL Mesonet
Private weather station near Palm Coast
recorded 3.26 inches of rainfall from around
10 PM through around 11:45 PM.
&&
NelsonThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
A private weather station located northwest of St. Augustine measured 2.4 inches of rainfall from around 1:30 am to 2:45 am.
A personal weather station in Hilliard measured over 2.5 inches of rain in an hour.
A public weather station along Faulkner Drive measured 2.15 inches int the past hour.
A private weather station in Palm Coast measured 2.35 inches between 10 pm and 11:45 pm.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, August 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1287851, 1287852, 1287853, 1287854.