Wildfire in New Mexico, August 1 to 10, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
543 AM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 535 AM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

- The monsoon moisture plume will remain over the area through
  Friday with locally heavy rainfall resulting in a flash flood
  risk, especially around burn scars, urban areas, locales with
  saturated ground, and poorly drained areas.

- Severe thunderstorms will favor the northeast quadrant of New
  Mexico on Friday and Saturday, mainly during the afternoon and
  early evening hours. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be
  the main hazards.

- Daytime temperatures will increase for the early to middle
  portion of next week. There is high confidence in widespread
  moderate to locally major heat risk impacts, particularly for
  individuals without adequate cooling and hydration.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 1138 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Nocturnal convection persists in the northeast and east central
plains as a weak shortwave rotates around the upper level ridge.
Latest CAMs suggest this activity will slowly migrate southeast
through around 16Z. Heavy rainfall continues to be a concern but
the intensity should wane prior to sunrise.

The 598dam 500hPa high will be positioned over southeast AZ and
southwest NM, with PWATs ranging from 0.75 to 1.25 inch from the
Four Corners area to the southeast plains, which is pretty close
to climatological norms. Convection will re-erupt per usual over
the high terrain by early afternoon. A burn scar flash flood risk
appears to start around 19Z near the Ruidoso area. Meanwhile, a
shortwave tracking through the northern and central Rockies will
enhance storm potential across the northern mountains of NM and
eventually for the northeast and east central plains. 0-6km bulk
shear coupled with MUCAPE values of 750-1250 J/kg should support
more robust and longer-lived updrafts. Moderate to steep lapse
rates will support large hail and damaging wind gusts (>60 mph).
Activity is likely to congeal into a broken or solid line during
the early evening, then diminish over the east-central/southeast
zones between 06-09Z/Sat. Meanwhile, convection over the mountain
areas should wane shortly after sunset. Heavy rainfall potential
will pose a repeat risk for flash flooding near all burn scars.
Additionally, wet antecedent conditions due to multiple recent
events will elevate the flash flood risk in the Sangre de Cristo
Mts east into the northeast/east central plains. As a result, a
new Flood Watch will be hoisted for these locales as well as the
southwest mountains and San Augustine Plains.

The upr high remains positioned to our southwest on Saturday as
much drier air starts to advect into NM from the northwest. PWATs
will take a 0.25 inch shave over the entire CWA. Overall, storm
coverage will be reduced, but there will remain an elevated risk
across the northeast plains as yet another shortwave on the nrn
periphery of the ridge skirts the region. Instability and shear
parameters appear similar if not a tad higher which will support
another threat for strong to severe storms, albeit a tad further
east compared to Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1138 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Substantial PWAT suffocation is projected for Sunday as a large
slug of dry air invades New Mexico. PWATs drop below 0.20 inch
across the Four Corners region with 0.50-0.75 inch holding tough
over the far eastern plains. The GFS suggests only 0.34 inch for
ABQ which would place it between a record low value and the 10th
percentile. As a result of a drier airmass and less cloud cover
and storms, readings should climb 2-7F compared to Sat. The NBM
indicates a 78% chance of 100F at the Sunport, 87% at Socorro and
97% at Roswell. In fact, a Heat Advisory may be needed for Chaves
County with a 54% chance this zone reaches 105F.

The monsoon high will park itself directly over central or south
central NM and strengthen to near 600dam at 500hPa. This could be
a near record for 00Z/Tues. This significant lid on the atmosphere
coupled with a lack of moisture will continue to support very hot
temperatures and neglible tstorm chances. Expect greater coverage
of moderate heat risk for western and southern NM as a result.

For the remainder of the mid-week, the upr high will continue to
wobble while maintaining its strength. Strong moisture advection
from northwest Mexico is projected along the western periphery of
the high. This will bring notably higher PWATs into AZ, and this
could eventually seep into portions of western NM and towards the
northern parts of the state. Low chances for storms return to the
forecast as a result, but it comes with marginal confidence given
the strength of the monsoon high. Widespread moderate heat risk
is forecast for Tuesday-Thursday with the major category favoring
the RGV as well as parts of east central and southeast NM. This
happened to be a very hot week in 2023, thus most areas may fall
just shy of record territory.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 AM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

A line of convection continues to drift southeast and will impact
the east central plains of NM through 14Z, mainly along/east of a
line from KCVN to eastern Chaves Co. Another round of showers and
storms will develop by early afternoon over the high terrain, then
gradually migrate towards the east-southeast. Expect mountain top
obscurations in heavier pcpn along with a threat for gusty/erratic
outflows. Meanwhile, a more organized threat for strong to severe
storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts will be favored in
northeast/east central NM this afternoon and early evening. Expect
storms to persist across the ern plains through 06-09Z/Sat. There
is a low chance for an organized outflow boundary to push its way
through the central mountain chain, potentially supporting canyon
breezes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1138 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected throughout the
forecast period; however, a significant fuel drying pattern should
materialize for the upcoming week.

A typical wet monsoon pattern will continue for today but notably
drier air will invade the state starting Saturday and particularly
on Sunday. Minimum RH values are forecast to drop into the single
digits for a period of 8 to 13 hours on Sunday over northwest NM,
and 10 to 16 hours on Monday. RFTI indicates elevated fire weather
conditions in the northwest for Sunday, with a large aspect of wrn
and central NM included for Monday, with the RH component serving
as the primary driver. Meanwhile, expect very poor-fair overnight
RH recoveries for locations west of the central mountain chain.

Moisture advection is expected along the western periphery of the
very strong upper high for the middle portion of the week. Much of
this will impact AZ with some advection possible in western NM and
potentially into the northern mountains. Unfortunately, this will
likely setup a pattern of wet and dry thunderstorms with limited
wetting footprints coupled with gusty/erratic outflow winds. Fresh
lightning-induced fires could be a concern until a more substantial
wet monsoon pattern develops.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  92  65  95  59 /   5   5   0   0
Dulce...........................  87  48  89  46 /  40  10  10   0
Cuba............................  86  57  89  55 /  40  20  10   5
Gallup..........................  89  53  91  51 /  20  20   0   0
El Morro........................  84  55  86  55 /  50  20  10   0
Grants..........................  87  56  90  55 /  50  20  10   5
Quemado.........................  85  58  87  57 /  60  30  20   5
Magdalena.......................  83  62  86  63 /  50  20  20  10
Datil...........................  81  56  84  58 /  60  30  30  10
Reserve.........................  90  55  92  54 /  70  30  20   5
Glenwood........................  94  61  97  60 /  70  30  20   5
Chama...........................  80  49  81  48 /  60  20  20   5
Los Alamos......................  81  59  84  60 /  50  30  20   5
Pecos...........................  81  55  84  56 /  60  40  20  10
Cerro/Questa....................  80  53  82  53 /  70  30  30  10
Red River.......................  71  45  73  45 /  70  30  40  10
Angel Fire......................  74  40  76  40 /  70  30  40   5
Taos............................  82  52  85  51 /  60  30  20   5
Mora............................  78  50  81  51 /  70  40  30  10
Espanola........................  88  58  90  58 /  40  30  10   5
Santa Fe........................  83  60  86  60 /  50  30  10  10
Santa Fe Airport................  86  57  89  58 /  40  30   5   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  89  68  92  68 /  40  30  10  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  91  65  94  66 /  30  30   5  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  93  65  97  65 /  30  20   5   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  91  66  94  66 /  30  30   5   5
Belen...........................  92  63  96  63 /  30  20   0   5
Bernalillo......................  91  64  94  64 /  30  30   5  10
Bosque Farms....................  92  63  95  62 /  30  20   0   5
Corrales........................  92  65  96  66 /  30  30   5  10
Los Lunas.......................  92  64  95  63 /  30  20   0   5
Placitas........................  88  63  91  64 /  40  30   5  10
Rio Rancho......................  91  65  94  66 /  30  30   5   5
Socorro.........................  93  66  97  67 /  30  20   5  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  83  58  86  59 /  40  30  10  10
Tijeras.........................  84  60  87  61 /  40  30  10  10
Edgewood........................  83  55  88  56 /  40  30   5   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  85  53  89  55 /  40  30   5   5
Clines Corners..................  78  55  84  57 /  50  30   5   5
Mountainair.....................  83  57  87  59 /  40  20  10  10
Gran Quivira....................  82  57  86  60 /  40  20  10  10
Carrizozo.......................  86  63  89  66 /  40  20  10   5
Ruidoso.........................  77  57  81  60 /  60  10  20   5
Capulin.........................  77  51  82  52 /  60  50  30  30
Raton...........................  81  50  86  50 /  70  40  30  10
Springer........................  83  52  88  52 /  60  40  20  10
Las Vegas.......................  79  52  84  54 /  60  40  20  10
Clayton.........................  81  58  87  58 /  30  40  10  30
Roy.............................  79  55  85  56 /  40  50  10  20
Conchas.........................  87  61  94  63 /  30  50   5  20
Santa Rosa......................  85  59  92  61 /  30  40   5  10
Tucumcari.......................  83  60  92  62 /  20  30   5  20
Clovis..........................  88  64  94  67 /  20  30   5  20
Portales........................  89  64  96  68 /  20  30   5  20
Fort Sumner.....................  88  63  94  66 /  20  30   0  10
Roswell.........................  93  69  98  71 /  20  10   0   0
Picacho.........................  85  61  91  64 /  40  10   5   0
Elk.............................  83  58  87  62 /  50  10  10   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ214-
215-227>234.

Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ208-
226-241.

&&

SHORT TERM...46
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...46

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1006 AM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1258 PM     Flash Flood      1 WNW Ruidoso           33.33N 105.70W
07/31/2025                   Lincoln            NM   Emergency Mngr

            Water over the Road at Main Bridge 2.

1258 PM     Flash Flood      1 NW Ruidoso            33.34N 105.69W
07/31/2025                   Lincoln            NM   Public

            Water flowing fast over the road at Perk and
            Ebarb.

0119 PM     Flash Flood      1 W Hollywood           33.32N 105.65W
07/31/2025                   Lincoln            NM   Emergency Mngr

            Bridge flooded.

0121 PM     Flash Flood      1 N Ruidoso             33.35N 105.68W
07/31/2025                   Lincoln            NM   Emergency Mngr

            Closing Cedar Creek drive up to Musketball
            due to flooding.

0152 PM     Flash Flood      1 NNE Ruidoso           33.35N 105.67W
07/31/2025                   Lincoln            NM   Emergency Mngr

            Cree Meadows drive overtopped by 2 feet at
            bridge.

0200 PM     Flash Flood      Ruidoso Downs           33.33N 105.61W
07/31/2025                   Lincoln            NM   Emergency Mngr

            Access road to Racetrack overtopped.

0215 PM     Flash Flood      1 WNW Hollywood         33.33N 105.66W
07/31/2025                   Lincoln            NM   Emergency Mngr

            Fast moving water over Paradise road.

0321 PM     Flash Flood      4 E Bonito Lake         33.45N 105.63W
07/31/2025                   Lincoln            NM   Public

            Fast moving water on Sandesta drive. Reports
            of water entering homes.

0330 PM     Flash Flood      2 NE Ruidoso            33.35N 105.66W
07/31/2025                   Lincoln            NM   Emergency Mngr

            Fast moving deep water over the road near
            the schools.

0350 PM     Flash Flood      2 SSE Alto              33.37N 105.66W
07/31/2025                   Lincoln            NM   Emergency Mngr

            Road impassable due to flooding.

0741 PM     Debris Flow      3 WNW Red River Ski Are 36.70N 105.46W
07/31/2025                   Taos               NM   Law Enforcement

            Mudslide observed across State Highway 38 at
            mile marker 9, a few miles west of Red
            River. Both lanes are closed with no ETA as
            to when the highway will reopen.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1008 AM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     Flash Flood      4 E Elk                 32.94N 105.27W
07/30/2025                   Chaves             NM   Trained Spotter

            Rio Penasco overflowed its banks and flooded
            pastures nearby.

0505 PM     Flash Flood      1 WNW Ruidoso           33.33N 105.70W
07/30/2025                   Lincoln            NM   Emergency Mngr

            Water overtopping bridge.

0508 PM     Flash Flood      2 SSW Alto              33.37N 105.69W
07/30/2025                   Lincoln            NM   Emergency Mngr

            Road Closed due to flooding.

0512 PM     Flash Flood      1 N Ruidoso             33.34N 105.68W
07/30/2025                   Lincoln            NM   Emergency Mngr

            Fast moving water over Brady and Porr.

0518 PM     Flash Flood      1 NNE Ruidoso           33.35N 105.67W
07/30/2025                   Lincoln            NM   Emergency Mngr

            Country Club Road closed due to flooding.

0521 PM     Flash Flood      Ruidoso                 33.33N 105.67W
07/30/2025                   Lincoln            NM   Emergency Mngr

            Water out of the banks and flowing over the
            road.

0522 PM     Flash Flood      1 E Ruidoso             33.33N 105.66W
07/30/2025                   Lincoln            NM   Emergency Mngr

            Water overtopping Robin Road and River
            Trail.

0524 PM     Flash Flood      1 ENE Ruidoso           33.33N 105.67W
07/30/2025                   Lincoln            NM   Emergency Mngr

            Water overtopped bridge on Eagle.

0538 PM     Flash Flood      Hollywood               33.33N 105.63W
07/30/2025                   Lincoln            NM   Emergency Mngr

            Water overtopped bridge at Gavilan Canyon
            Road.

0548 PM     Flash Flood      1 ENE Hollywood         33.33N 105.63W
07/30/2025                   Lincoln            NM   Emergency Mngr

            SW Rescues performed. Number of people
            unknown at this time.

0553 PM     Flash Flood      2 SW Alto               33.37N 105.70W
07/30/2025                   Lincoln            NM   Emergency Mngr

            Spring Canyon road washed out and
            impassable.

0558 PM     Flash Flood      1 WSW Ruidoso Downs     33.33N 105.61W
07/30/2025                   Lincoln            NM   Emergency Mngr

            Water Overtopping the bridge on the access
            road to the racetrack.

0600 PM     Flash Flood      1 SSW Carrizozo         33.63N 105.89W
07/30/2025                   Lincoln            NM   Emergency Mngr

            EM reported 6 inches of moving water over
            US-54 south of Carrizozo. Time estimated
            based on radar.

0609 PM     Flash Flood      Ruidoso Downs           33.33N 105.61W
07/30/2025                   Lincoln            NM   Emergency Mngr

            Water flooding horse tunnel and headed into
            Spaghetti flats to the north and east.

0619 PM     Flash Flood      1 S Hollywood           33.31N 105.63W
07/30/2025                   Lincoln            NM   Emergency Mngr

            Adult woman rescued in SW operation.

&&