Another very dry month across southern New Mexico pushed at least Extreme(D3) drought conditions through the region.
Every event with a place to put it; 19 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EPZ wrote it up.
Another very dry month across southern New Mexico pushed at least Extreme(D3) drought conditions through the region.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 31, 10:25 PM MST, 1 hour 35 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1125 PM MDT Mon Mar 31 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1122 PM MDT Mon Mar 31 2025
- Strong southwest winds Tuesday and Wednesday, leading to
widespread blowing dust and critical wildfire danger.
Strongest gusts will occur Tuesday afternoon.
- Much cooler late this week with precipitation chances back in
the forecast. Confidence is increasing for a late-season snow
event over the Sacramento Mountains.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Mon Mar 31 2025
I hope everyone is enjoying today's weather because changes are on
their way. A potent jet is moving ashore into CA and will continue
east with its exit region reaching the Central Plains by tomorrow
morning. This will force strong lee cyclogenesis over Eastern CO
before the surface low shifts east toward the KS-NE border while
continuing to deepen. This will sharpen the pressure gradient
across NM and West TX while creating frontogenesis. Additionally
flow will increase throughout the entire column through the day,
peaking in the early evening. This is a recipe for a significant
wind event. GFS is showing H700 flow in excess of 50 knots for
most areas while H850 flow peaks between 30 and 40 knots. Bufkit
forecast soundings show much of this stronger flow will mix to the
surface via daytime heating, and the eventual FROPA and terrain
will also help mix stronger winds to the surface. Thus a high wind
warning is in effect for much of the area with wind advisories
filling out the remainder of the CWA. For the lowlands, peak
gusts will range 55 to 60 MPH and for mountains and east slope
areas, gusts will range 60-70 MPH. WSW trajectories mean the dust
sources across Northern Mexico will transport into Southern NM and
Far West Texas, which will combine with local dust sources to
create poor visibility. A dust advisory covers much of the CWA and
Dust Storm Warnings will almost certainly be needed as well.
Winds look to start early, around 9AM, peaking between 5 and 8PM
with FROPA.
I would like to say we get a break for Wednesday, but we will
remain on the back side of this large jet streak. Tuesday's main
thrust will be well to our northeast, but a broad surface cyclone
over the High Plains of NM along with additional CAA and
frontogenesis will keep winds up for Wednesday. Peak gusts do not
look as strong, topping out 45 to 55 MPH with highest winds in
mountains and east slopes. Wind advisories will likely be needed.
Blowing dust may also cause visibility reductions given WSW
trajectory, but reduced speeds and cooler conditions might limit
the problem. It does not take much wind and instability to loft
dust however.
Jet energy decreases / shifts away from the CWA for Thursday while
a closed low begins to take shape to our west. This will lead to a
down day in terms of weather impacts for Thursday. As we head into
Friday and then Saturday, this low begins pushing east. The GFS
continues to be farther south with this system than the Euro and
is thus wetter. Both models place us toward the southern end of
the low's diffluence/ warm conveyor belt, but the Euro with its
more northern track dry slots sooner. We remain within the low's
cold pool so scattered instability showers would continue Friday
night into Saturday, but the GFS's southern solution keeps us more
within the zone for widespread showers. Either way, the low is
slow to depart, so low precip chances continue into Saturday and
Sunday. This low will also allow cooler air to spill in from the
north and east. The Euro brings us below normal, but the GFS
brings us well below normal with highs struggling to get out of
the 50s Saturday and Sunday. The GFS's track would also bring
decent snows to the Sacramento Mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Mon Mar 31 2025
Generally light winds from 230-270 overnight in the 3-8kt range.
Variable sky cover from FEW-SCT250 to BKN250 through the night.
VFR conditions overnight through the early morning hours.
Tomorrow, we begin to see increasing winds by 15z, and continuing
to increase through the entire afternoon. Winds from 240-260 will
increase aft 15z to 15G25kts, then aft 18z to 25G35kts, then aft
20z to 30G45kts. Expect widespread areas of blowing dust, with
plenty of areas seeing dense dust with vsby less than 1SM. Thus we
are expecting some afternoon IFR conditions due to very low vsby.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Mon Mar 31 2025
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
A potent storm system will push through the area tomorrow bringing
strong winds to the entire forecast domain, with 20-foot winds
peaking out between 20 and 30 mph with gusts as high as 60 mph in
the mountains. Min RH values will be in the lower to mid teens
below 7500 feet but will range 15 to 25 percent in the mountains.
Both the Gila NF and Sacramento Mountains were included within
the Red Flag Warning given the RFTI component is 4+ with min RH
values just above 15 percent. Fuels are also very dry within the
90th percentile. Any fires will spread rapidly, considering the
dry fuels.
We remain on the back side of the system for Wednesday and winds
will remain high though about 5 mph lower, topping out 20 to 25
mph. Min RH values will also be a few points higher, especially in
the mountains. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Wednesday,
but the mountain zones were excluded since much of the area will
be above 15 percent, even as high as 30 percent in the higher
elevations.
Thursday brings an end to significant fire weather concerns.
Minimum relative humidity will still be in the mid teens on
Thursday but winds will be significantly lower, topping out around
15 mph. By Friday, moisture will begin increasing while
temperatures cool. Thus, no critical fire weather conditions are
expected beyond Wednesday for the forecast period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 54 82 49 70 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 48 79 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 46 76 39 65 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 50 76 39 66 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 38 52 26 41 / 0 0 0 10
Truth or Consequences 49 73 39 63 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 42 64 34 54 / 0 0 0 10
Deming 46 77 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 42 72 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 54 80 49 69 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 47 81 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 48 85 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 49 74 43 63 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 50 83 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 48 78 43 68 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 55 78 47 67 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 48 75 39 65 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 51 78 40 67 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 50 80 44 68 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 49 77 42 65 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 47 65 34 55 / 0 0 0 10
Mescalero 42 63 29 52 / 0 0 0 10
Timberon 38 62 29 52 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 38 63 25 53 / 0 0 0 10
Hillsboro 45 71 36 60 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 45 74 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 38 63 30 53 / 0 0 0 10
Hurley 40 67 32 58 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 37 70 30 61 / 0 0 0 10
Mule Creek 41 64 31 55 / 0 0 0 10
Faywood 44 68 36 58 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 44 76 38 64 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 44 76 38 63 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 47 77 42 63 / 0 0 0 10
Cloverdale 45 71 40 58 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Texas Fire
Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire Weather Zone
056 Hudspeth County.
Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Rio Grande
Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio
Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-Western El Paso County.
Blowing Dust Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for
Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth
Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El
Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern
Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Western El Paso County.
High Wind Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for
Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth
Highlands/Hueco Mountains.
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County-
Texas Fire Weather Zone 056 Hudspeth County.
NM...High Wind Warning from 6 AM Tuesday to midnight MDT Tuesday
night for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Southern Gila Region
Highlands/Black Range-West Central Tularosa Basin/White
Sands-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.
Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Capitan and
Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands
and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts
and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila
NF/Apache NF/GLZ.
Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Southwest
Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Upper Gila River Valley.
Blowing Dust Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for East
Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Southeast Tularosa
Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest
Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres
Basin-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-West Slopes
Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.
High Wind Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Central
Grant County/Silver City Area-East Central Tularosa
Basin/Alamogordo-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of
the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sierra
County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana
County/Mesilla Valley-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres
Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the
Bootheel.
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande
Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces
BLM/GLZ.
&&
FORECASTER...14-BirdThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
19 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
The zone remained in Exceptional(D4) drought across the south and Extreme(D3) drought across the north in April. The Cliff Cooperative Observer reported just 0.01 inch which was 0.32 inches below normal.
The month started with Exceptional(D4) drought west and Extreme(D3) drought east. The entire zone was in Exceptional(D4) drought by the end of the month.
The month started with the eastern half of the zone in Exceptional(D4) drought and Extreme(D3) drought west. By the end of the month, the entire zone was in Exceptional(D4) drought. The Redrock Cooperative Observer reported just a trace of precipitation which was 0.21 inches below normal.
The month started with the entire zone in Extreme(D3) drought and by the end of the month the northern half of the zone was placed in Exceptional(D4) drought. The Cooperative Observer at Antelope Wells received no precipitation which was 0.15 inches below normal.
April started out with the entire zone in Extreme(D3) drought. By the end of the month, the northern half of the zone was placed in Exceptional(D4) drought.
The northwest portion of the zone remained in Exceptional(D4) drought with Extreme(D3) drought over the remainder of the zone. The Deming Airport received just a trace of precipitation in April which was 0.21 inches below normal.
Extreme(D3) drought continued across the entire zone through April. The Cooperative Observer in Hillsboro reported 0.02 inches of precipitation which was 0.33 inches below normal.
The month started with the western half of the zone in Extreme(D3) drought and Severe(D2) drought over the east. By the end of April, the entire zone was in Extreme(D3) drought. The Truth or Consequences Airport reported just a trace of precipitation which was 0.27 inches below normal.
April started out with the western half of the zone in Extreme(D3) drought and Severe(D2) drought over the east. By the end of the month, the entire zone was in Extreme(D3) drought.
Extreme(D3) drought covered all of the zone except for a small are in the far south where Exceptional(D4) drought was present. The Cooperative Observer at New Mexico State University did not receive any precipitation in April which was 0.22 inches below normal.
Extreme(D3) drought continued across the entire zone in April. The Mountain Park Cooperative Observer reported 0.50 inches of precipitation which was 0.09 inches below normal.
Extreme(D3) drought continued across the zone in April. The Cloudcroft Cooperative Observer reported 0.54 inches of precipitation which was 0.31 inches below normal.
Extreme(D3) drought remained across the entire zone in April. The Elk Cooperative Observer reported 0.23 inches of precipitation which was 0.29 inches below normal.
Extreme(D3) drought remained across the entire zone in April.
Exceptional(D4) drought remained in place across the zone throughout April. The White Signal Cooperative Observer reported just a trace of precipitation which was 0.30 inches below normal.
The western half of the zone remained in Exceptional(D4) drought and Extreme(D3) drought over the east in April.
The month started with Extreme(D3) drought south and Severe(D2) drought north. By the end of April, the entire zone was in Extreme(D3) drought. The White Sands National Park Cooperative Observer reported 0.18 inches of precipitation which was 0.12 inches below normal.
The northern half of the zone started in Severe(D2) drought with Extreme(D3) drought south. By the end of April, the entire zone was in Extreme(D3) drought.
The entire zone remained in Extreme(D3) drought through the month of April.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, April 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1248130, 1248131, 1248132, 1248134, 1248135, 1248136, 1248140, 1248143, 1248146, 1248149, 1248150, 1248152, 1248153, 1248155, 1248156, 1248172, 1248175, 1248176, 1248177.