An atmospheric river event along with dynamic support from the upper level jet promoted strong gusty winds over portions of northern Nevada.
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The episode as NWS LKN wrote it up.
An atmospheric river event along with dynamic support from the upper level jet promoted strong gusty winds over portions of northern Nevada.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Elko, NV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 12:36 PM PST, 10 hours 5 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1236 PM PST Fri Jan 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS...An atmospheric river pattern will set up over the western U.S. this weekend and into early next week bringing a period of valley rainfall and heavy mountain snow, especially across northern Nevada. Greatest confidence in impacts will be over mountain passes with snow levels at or above 6500 feet. A trough across the West will maintain the unsettled pattern into the first part of next week. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night. Key Messages... - A prolonged atmospheric river pattern is set to develop this weekend with moderate to heavy valley rainfall and mountain snow above 6500 feet. - The Winter Storm Watch across the Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM Friday through 4 AM Monday PST. - Difficult travel is expected over mountain passes in Humboldt and Elko Counties this weekend with heavy and blowing/drifting snow. Light returns are are already showing up on radar early this afternoon, though dry air is preventing any precipitation from reaching the ground as per latest observations. Latest hi- resolution guidance begins bringing precipitation to ground-level by the 3-4 PM timeframe this afternoon, starting with snow in the mountains first above 7000 feet lowering to rainfall at lower elevations into the evening. As is common in atmospheric river patterns, snow levels remain elevated with southwesterly flow over the Great Basin, remaining mostly above 6500 feet through the weekend. A sharp cutoff will exit across northern Elko and Humboldt Counties as a cold front drops south and stalls across the I-80 corridor into Saturday afternoon. In result, the highest snowfall totals will be confined to areas above 6500 feet north of I-80 and across the Ruby Mountains. With increased confidence, upgraded the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning for the Rubies and East Humboldt Range through 4 AM Monday morning. Deterministic NBM totals haven't changed much with up to 40 inches, though amounts of up to 60 inches are not out of the question across the higher peaks (30% chance) - good news for winter weather outdoor enthusiasts with the below normal snowfall so far this winter season. While snowfall is not expected for locations below 6000 feet, this will be one of the wetter systems we have seen in quite awhile with up to an inch and a half of liquid precipitation through Sunday night across the I-80 corridor (55% chance). Amounts drop off abruptly heading south to the US 50 corridor with only a few hundredths at most south of US 50 through this weekend. This is also good news for the abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions across northern and central Nevada. While rises on areas creeks and streams is forecast, no forecast points are forecast to rise above Action Stage at this time. As mentioned, strong southwesterly flow will strengthen across the area through Saturday and into Sunday as the trough moves closer to the West Coast. In addition to the increased moisture and anomalously high PWAT values, high and low temperatures increase above normal with highs reaching into the low to mid 40s along and north of I-80 Saturday and close to 60 south of US 50. Low temperatures also remain mostly above freezing across most valleys locations this weekend. Breezy to locally windy conditions will overspread the region, especially into Saturday and Saturday night with 50-60% chance for wind gusts of at least 30 mph so you may want to secure any loose outdoor objects or lingering holiday decorations. .LONG TERM...Sunday through next Thursday Later this weekend zonal flow aloft sets up over the area sandwiched between high pressure to the south over Mexico and an Alaskan low positioned off the western coast of Canada that will slowly sag south and east over the long term forecast period. A southwest shift in upper level flow will take place Monday as the AK low progresses southward. An atmospheric river responsible for bringing wet weather to mainly northern portions of the state this weekend continues to provide plenty of moisture availability for a stationary boundary draped over the northern half of the region on Sunday. According to the Storm Prediction Center average PW values of 0.22 inches and even a 90th percentile value of 0.37 inches for this time of year will be well surpassed as PW values on Sunday over the northern corridor of the CWA will range between 0.50-0.65 inches. By Sunday morning snow levels for all but the northern portions of Elko and Humboldt county will climb to around 8,000 feet by Sunday afternoon in response to the station boundary meandering north allowing warmer air to filter northward over the course of the day. Precipitation that falls in response to ample available moisture will be in the form of rain for all but the highest peaks in northern NV. Accumulations of 0.25-0.5 inches are possible by Sunday evening along and north of I-80. In addition to northern NV precipitation the region as a whole will experience a windy day on Sunday with the potential for Wind advisories as wind speeds will be in the 20-30 mph range with gusts into the 40s Sunday afternoon. This is in response to a tightening surface pressure gradient over central and southern NV. The boundary continues to lift north away from the state Monday allowing for a brief respite from active weather as warmer than normal temperatures in the 40s (north NV) and 50s (central and east central NV) for afternoon highs continue. On Tuesday in response to the parent cyclone progressing south the aforementioned boundary will return to the Silver State in the form of a cold front Tuesday night. As the boundary treks from northwest to southeast Tuesday night and Wednesday snow levels will tumble to valley floors by Wednesday AM as temperatures drop along and behind the boundary. While PW values will not be as robust in a range of 0.3-0.4 inches they will be well above normal for this time of year providing enough moisture for the frontal boundary to produce rain and snow showers as the front pushes through the region. With temperatures struggling into the upper 30s Wednesday a mix of more snow than rain is expected. While its too soon for forecasted accumulations, chances for greater than 1.5 inches of 48-hr snowfall by Thursday morning are as follows: Owyhee – 65% Spring Creek – 30% Eureka – 25% Austin – 20% Elko – 15% Ely-15% Winnemucca – 15% Battle Mountain/Carlin – 10% Behind the front temperatures will fall back to highs in the 30s and lows in the teens and 20s on Wednesday and Thursday. Thursday evening into Friday morning another wave will trek into the state bringing another round of precipitation to the area to close out the workweek. && .AVIATION...CIGS will continue to lower this evening as precipitation initiates for northern terminals as a station boundary and ample moisture will create MVFR and IFR conditions for all terminals except KTPH tonight and Saturday. CIGS will fall to 1k-2k feet and precipitation is expected to be mainly rain with the system. Wind gusts in the range of 18-25KT Friday evening for northern terminals will gradually subside by early Saturday morning though sustained winds of 08-11KT are expected to continue through Saturday. Inclement weather for the northern terminals and KELY will continue through Saturday afternoon as a stationary boundary persists precipitation over the region this weekend. .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Monday Humboldt...Northern Elko. Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Monday Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range in Elko. && 84/99/99
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Station (POCN2) Pole Creek, Elevation 8502 ft.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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