NWS Reno, NV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 25, 2:32 AM PST, 6 hours 28 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 25, 2:32 AM PST, 6 hours 28 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
232 AM PST Sat Jan 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
* Colder temperatures, brisk northeast winds, and snow chances
will persist through the weekend. Prepare for slick road
conditions.
* Gusty northeast ridge winds will bring low wind chills to the
Sierra backcountry.
* Gradual warming and drier conditions return to the region by
midweek.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Weekend Storm System Update:
This morning's GOES-West infrared and water vapor imagery clearly
shows cyclogenesis ongoing in the base of the "Inside Slider-
like" trough dropping southward across the western US. This
observation gives decent confirmation to Hi-Res ensemble guidance
for timing and movement of the closed low now spinning up along
the coastal fringe of northwest CA. A wide-band area of mid and
high-level moisture that extends west-east inland across
central/southern CA into the Great Basin region also signals the
development of a baroclinic zone over the region.
SNOW SHOWER BANDS:
* The resulting increase in instability and moisture along the
developing deformation zone will produce bands of light to
moderate snow showers forming this morning around day-break
south of Highway 50. These bands of snow showers will
progressively extend north to southern Lassen and Washoe
counties, as well as east into northern areas of the Basin and
Range through the afternoon and evening. A sharp gradient of
moisture and snow showers will then shift south that extends
from Mono County east across southern Lyon County, and Mineral
County, continuing to shift further south overnight through
Sunday as the low pressure system begins to move eastward.
* Hi-Res ensemble guidance still projects the formation of bands
of light to moderate snow showers starting this morning that
continue overnight into Sunday. Higher more favorable terrain
areas like around the eastern Lake Tahoe Basin, the Virginia
Range that includes Virginia City, and the eastern Sierra into
Mono-Southern Lyon-Mineral counties have at least a 30-50%
chance for 6 to 8 inches of storm total snowfall. Measurable
snowfall chances for western NV valleys are now 50-70% for
something up up to 2 inches with surrounding foothills seeing
to 3 to 6 inches of accumulating snow.
* Due to snowfall band placement remaining highly variable, with
potential for a boom/bust scenario, it is advised to check the
forecast for your area prior to traveling.
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS:
* In addition to the increased snow shower chances, northeast
breezes will also increase across the region will gusts across
higher terrain of the Sierra crest peaking at 50-60 mph. Most
lower valleys will see wind gusts peaking at 25-35 mph this
afternoon into tonight, especially areas of north of I-80 into
northeast CA, northern Washoe County and Pershing County that
shifts south to areas north of Highway 50 through the afternoon.
Therefore, a lake wind advisory has been issued for Pyramid
Lake due to wind gusts as high as 35 mph with choppy surface
conditions.
IMPACTS:
* Most of this storm system's local impacts will be confined east
of the Sierra Crest into western NV with bands of snow showers
bringing icy, slick conditions on area roadways from I-80
southward, with greater impacts south of Highway 50. Mountain
passes like Echo Pass (40-60% chance), Carson Pass (60-70%
chance), and even Donner Pass (30-40% chance) on the far western
extend of snowfall could see a 2-4 inches of newly fallen snow
that will make for difficult driving conditions. Even lower
mountain passes like New Pass along Highway 50 in eastern
Churchill County could see impacts due to icy, slick conditions
from 1-2 inches of accumulated snow. Please stay updated on
changing conditions and travel safely!
Monday onward through mid-week:
By Monday morning, the closed upper low will swing east across
southern CA/NV into the Four-Corners region, dragging east and south
any residual low-mid level moisture and showers into those regions.
Ensemble cluster guidance still provides a high confidence
projection of upper ridging building back into the West Coast
through mid-week. This will result in a return to dry weather
conditions, lighter winds, and strengthening of valley inversions.
Temperatures will also gradually warm as well, with daytime highs
warming back into the more seasonal 40s and lower 50s from
midweek onward.
-Amanda
&&
.AVIATION...
Saturday Morning Onward:
* A deepening trough will bring active weather to western Nevada
and the Sierra. Northeast winds strengthen by this afternoon,
gusting 15-20 kts at KRNO, KCXP, and KMEV.
Snow Timing and Impacts:
* Light snow begins after 14-16Z Saturday near KMMH/KBAN,
spreading north through this afternoon to KMEV-KCXP-KRNO. MVFR
with periods of IFR ceilings/visibility expected at Sierra and
western Nevada terminals by this evening, persisting into Sunday
AM.
Hazards:
* Mountain obscurations near and south of I-80.
* Turbulence possible over and west of the Sierra to include Sierra
terminals.
* Significant reductions in visibility/ceilings due to
alternating periods of airfield conditions. Monitor updates for
changing conditions.
Snowfall Totals:
* KRNO, KCXP, KMEV: 1 to 3 inches.
* KTVL, KTRK: 1 to 4 inches.
* KMMH, KBAN: 6 to 12 inches.
* Snowfall band placement remains highly variable, with potential
for a boom/bust scenario.
-Amanda/Johnston
&&
.AVALANCHE...
Key Impacts:
* Expect blowing snow, reduced visibility in backcountry areas.
* Strong northeast winds particularly on exposed ridgelines
with bitter cold wind chills ranging -5F to -15F.
* Hazardous backcountry conditions will persist through Sunday.
* Winter Weather Advisory in effect until to 4 PM PST Sunday for
the Central-Eastern Sierra and the White Mountains.
Sierra Avalanche Center Area:
* Snow Levels and Winds: Snow levels will remain below 5500 feet
throughout the event. Northeast winds will increase Saturday,
with mid-slope gusts of 20-30 mph and ridgetop gusts 40-50 mph.
* SWE and Snowfall: Snow will develop during the mid-late morning,
intensifying in the afternoon and continuing into Sunday. Liquid
equivalent totals of 0.5-0.75 inches, with snow accumulations of
4-12 inches expected. Higher totals are likely along the Carson
Range and east-southeast side of Lake Tahoe.
Bridgeport Avalanche Center Area:
* Snow Levels and Winds: Snow levels will stay below 6000 feet
through the weekend. Northeast winds will strengthen, with mid-
slope gusts of 15-25 mph and ridgetop gusts 40-50 mph.
* SWE and Snowfall: Snow begins by late morning, intensifying into
the afternoon and evening and continuing into Sunday. Liquid
equivalent totals of 0.3- 0.4 inches are expected, with snowfall
accumulations of 4-12 inches.
Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center Area:
* Snow Levels and Winds: Snow levels will hover near 7000 feet
Saturday morning, dropping to 5000 feet by Sunday. Northeast
winds will increase, with mid-slope gusts of 20-30 mph and
ridgetop gusts 50 mph, locally to 60 mph.
* SWE and Snowfall: Snow develops this morning, becoming heavier
in the afternoon and continuing overnight into Sunday. Liquid
equivalent totals of 0.4-0.6 inches are expected, with snowfall
accumulations of 5-12 inches above 7000 feet.
White Mountains
* Snow Levels and Winds: Snow levels will remain below 7000 feet
through the weekend. Southwest ridge winds will shift to
northeast by this evening, with gusts of 30-40 mph.
* SWE and Snowfall: Snow begins this morning, peaking this
evening into Sunday. Liquid equivalent totals of 0.3-0.5 inches
are expected, with snowfall accumulations of 3-7 inches, with
locally higher amounts above 9000 feet through Saturday night.
-Amanda/Johnston
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM PST
Sunday NVZ001>003.
Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening NVZ004.
CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM PST
Sunday CAZ072-073.
&&