Damaging Wind in Nebraska, June 17, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
Issued by National Weather Service Dodge City KS
502 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are forecast to impact the area this afternoon
  and evening.  These severe storms have the potential to produce
  damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph, large hail over 2 inches
  in diameter, and maybe a tornado or two. The threat of intense
  winds of 70 to 100 mph has decreased.

- Localized dust storms could accompany the severe storms, but the
  threat of a wall of dust has decreased.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

The severe thunderstorm threat has diminished across most of the
forecast area due to a lingering cold pool and more stable airmass
from the rainfall this morning.  This is very evident over the past
few hours on radar as severe storms over the high plains of eastern
Colorado move into Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties and immediately
begin to weaken.  There will be some further warming of the airmass
through the afternoon hours, but a mid to high level cloud deck of
dense cirrus from the thunderstorms forming east of the Front Range
will limit overall warming.  The end result will be far less
instability than previously expected for the thunderstorms to tap
into.  The top end threat will be some scattered severe storms
capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts that form
in the late afternoon and early evening hours, generally between
4 pm and 8 pm mountain for the western third of the forecast area.
Further to the east, the cold pool should effectively kill off the
severe threat for today.  All of the latest CAMS indicate that the
threat will quickly diminish after 8 pm as the greatest dynamic
forcing shifts to the east and ignites a stronger line storms
across southern and central Kansas.

Increasing negative vorticity advection and deep layer subsidence
will take hold of the area late tonight and tomorrow as a strong
longwave ridge axis moves in from the west.  Some weak cold air
advection will also occur, and this will keep temperatures fairly
mild with highs only warming into the mid 80s beneath clear skies.
This cool and dry airmass will allow overnight lows to dip into
the 50s and lower 60s tomorrow night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

A very strong deep layer ridge axis will dominate the forecast area
through the weekend.  Hot and dry conditions will be the rule as this
ridge slides through the region.  The heat should peak over the
weekend when the ridge and overall subsidence will be greatest.
Model temperature spread is fairly low, and there is a high degree
of confidence that temperatures will warm into the low to mid 100s
this weekend.

The ridge will begin to pull to the east on Monday, and a transition
back to a more humid regime will take place as the low level wind
field shifts back to the east and southeast.  In the upper levels,
lower heights associated with an approaching longwave trough parked
over the Pacific Northwest and a more favorable jet structure aloft
will combine with the increasingly favorable thermodynamics to
induce additional convective activity on Monday and Tuesday.  The
convection will once again form along a dry line boundary, but the
exact location of the boundary is tough to determine this far out.
Given this uncertainty in the dry line location, the forecast
calls for isolated convective activity across the entire forecast
area each day as reflected by PoP values of 20 to 30 percent.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 502 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

At GLD, the primary concern will be the potential for redeveloping
thunderstorm activity capable of producing periods of IFR visibilities
and lower ceilings to around 2000 feet.  Gusty winds over 30 knots
could also be a concern as the storms move through.  The primary
threat for thunderstorm activity at GLD will be between 00z and 02z.
By 03z, the convective threat should be over and a much drier and
more stable airmass will begin to move into the area.  This will
result in prevailing VFR conditions from 03z through the end of the
TAF period.

At MCK, the convective threat is substantially lower this evening
due to the very stable rain-cooled airmass in place.  At most,
some passing light rain showers could push visibility down to MVFR
range for a few hours between 01z and 06z. Light boundary layer
flow around daybreak tomorrow will combine with higher soil moisture
content to support some patchy fog development between 10z and 14z.
The boundary layer will fully mix out after 14z resulting in
prevailing VFR conditions.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...GLD
LONG TERM...GLD
AVIATION...GLD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
Issued by National Weather Service Dodge City KS
253 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-182100-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
253 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025 /353 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms will be
exists this evening over the eastern Colorado counties. The primary
risk will be large hail. Tornado risk is low. Farther east into the
Kansas counties, the atmosphere is not as unstable and the risk is in
the Marginal category (level 1 of 5).

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

During the last half of the work week the fire weather risk will
be on the increase. Elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions will be possible on Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
446 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 SSW Joes              39.61N 102.71W
06/17/2025  M56 MPH          Yuma               CO   Mesonet

            High_Plains_Coat_(AWN64b2ee499b79fd1a67484a44).

&&

JTL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
448 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0427 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     17 N Flagler            39.53N 103.02W
06/17/2025  M55 MPH          Kit Carson         CO   Mesonet

            E7003.

&&

JTL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
450 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 SSW Joes              39.61N 102.71W
06/17/2025  E58 MPH          Yuma               CO   Mesonet

            High_Plains_Coat_(AWN64b2ee499b79fd1a67484a44).

&&

JTL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
501 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Wray                    40.08N 102.23W
06/17/2025  M55 MPH          Yuma               CO   AWOS

&&

JTL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
Issued by National Weather Service Dodge City KS
604 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

KSZ002-NEZ080-172330-
Rawlins KS-Hitchcock NE-
604 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL RAWLINS AND
HITCHCOCK COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM CDT...

At 603 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Trenton, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central
Rawlins and Hitchcock Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4032 10121 4017 10077 3994 10092 4005 10133
      4015 10133
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 287DEG 13KT 4010 10110

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SPRINGER

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
512 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0501 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 NNW Beecher Island    39.92N 102.15W
06/17/2025  M62 MPH          Yuma               CO   Mesonet

            Recored by the
            Lazy_TD_Farm_(AWN677ff91dc822dd5e36a5f5e8)
            mesonet station.

&&

CLL