Damaging Winds in Nebraska, April 1, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
658 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storm chances move in this evening with a slight risk for
  severe thunderstorms mainly south of I80. The primary hazards
  will be strong winds and hail. Locally heavy rainfall will
  also be possible with a slight risk of excessive rain.

- Periodic rain chances continue Wednesday, with additional
  chances Thursday into Saturday.

- Dry and seasonable weather expected Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

It has been a cloudy day, and there still is a severe weather
threat this evening. Surface low pressure noted across western
KS will move into eastern NE overnight and then northeast of
the area on Wednesday. The clouds over much of the forecast area
have limited our instability today, and this will also help to
confine most of the severe weather threat to areas along and
south of Interstate 80 tonight. The CAMs have been pretty
consistent in holding off any severe threat until after 6pm,
with a cluster of strong and potentially severe storms
developing in south central NE, then moving into our area
through the evening. The best storm coverage should across
southeast NE into southwest IA, where SPC has maintained the
slight risk. However, it's important to note that the enhanced
risk does come up to the NE/KS border, and then could be some
pretty strong storm just to the south across northeast KS. It's
primarily a hail and wind threat, but there could be a tornado
with stronger storms along the KS/NE border. Locally heavy
rainfall is also possible in that same area, with a couple of
rounds of storms, combined with a southwest to northeast
orientation leading to training of storms. We do have 2-2.5" of
QPF in southeast NE into southwest IA. WPC has also placed that
area in a slight risk of excessive heavy rainfall tonight as
well. I think we can take the rain as 3-hourly Flash Flood
Guidance is also in the same range. But it's something we'll
certainly be watching for in addition to the severe weather
threat. The severe weather threat lingers through about 1 am in
our area, but obviously will last much longer into KS and MO.

With the surface low moving through the area Wednesday morning,
we transition to the backside of the low. CAMs are still pretty
aggressive with at least morning showers and thunderstorms
north of I80, and have a continued 40-60% chance of rain in the
morning, and then the rain chances are confined to the NE/SD
border region for the afternoon as the low moves to the
northeast.

Thereafter, most of Thursday should be dry, but rain chances
move into at least eastern NE Thursday night and continue into
early Saturday. Fortunately, the severe weather threat looks
low during that time, but we will have a 40-70% chance of rain
during that time.

And then Sunday through Tuesday look dry with seasonable,
warming temperatures. Although the GFS looks wet again by
Tuesday but the ECMWF is dry so confidence is low.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 523 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

Thunderstorms are expected to affect the terminal locations this
evening (~01-04z) with showers persisting into the overnight
hours. Ceilings will concurrently lower with IFR conditions
forecast at KOFK and KOMA, and MVFR at KLNK. MVFR ceilings could
linger through much of the day on Wednesday at KOFK with a
transition back to prevailing VFR conditions at KOMA and KLNK.
Gusty southeast winds will switch to southwest and then west on
Wednesday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ015-018-
     032>034-043>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>092.
IA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-055-069-
     079-090.

&&

DISCUSSION...DeWald
AVIATION...Mead

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
921 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-021630-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
921 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

Thunderstorms will continue through the early morning hours. Some
will be severe. At this time, the main threats are large hail and
damaging winds, but locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.
The strongest storms will push out of the area before 3 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will probably not be needed for tonight, but
hail and wind reports are appreciated.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
915 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     Hail             3 WNW Bellwood          41.35N 97.31W
04/01/2025  M0.70 Inch       Butler             NE   Trained Spotter

            Hail covering the ground. Started as dime
            size then became smaller as time went on.

&&

Pearson