A tight west-east surface pressure gradient resulted in some high wind gusts across the western portions of the Billings Forecast Area.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BYZ wrote it up.
A tight west-east surface pressure gradient resulted in some high wind gusts across the western portions of the Billings Forecast Area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Billings, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 9, 8:47 PM MST, 5 hours 28 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
947 PM MDT Sun Mar 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Stronger winds (gusts to 60 mph possible) along the western
foothills tonight and Monday; cold front brings gusty northwest
winds (gusts 40-50 mph) over eastern lower elevations Monday.
- Unsettled weather will return toward the end of the work week,
leading to colder temperatures, potential for accumulating snow
and gusty winds; details uncertain at this time.
&&
.UPDATE...
Updated and corrected overnight lows tonight with this update.
Updated forecast to adjust winds and temperatures for the latest
model trends. NMB probabilities for gusts over 50 mph have
increased across the area for the next 24 hours. Probabilities now
over 50 percent for the higher elevations around Billings
including the airport, the Bull Mountains, the Red Lodge
Foothills, Fallon county, Carter county, and the foothills above
Sheridan Wyoming. Blended gusts closer to the 75th percentile to
get values higher but still within collaboration with surrounding
offices, and within the reasonable guidance range. Updated social
media and weather story with latest peak wind graphic. Given the
windy pre-frontal night bumped overnight lows for higher exposed
locations 5 to 8 degrees above forecast guidance. Last night with
similar conditions saw low stay well above forecast guidance,
should see similar conditions tonight. Rest of the forecast is in
good shape. Western foothills have already gusted into the 50s,
expect a ramp up around midnight lasting through frontal passage
between 10am and 1pm. Current wind highlites are in good shape. No
changes to the Red Flag Warning for far eastern fire zones.
Chambers
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Through Monday night...
High cloudiness is keeping temps somewhat subdued so far today
despite decent downslope flow. We suspect we will still see temps
make the 60s by late afternoon as clouds break some. Earlier this
morning we pulled trigger on wind advisory for Livingston/Nye
foothills as observations were pushing our criteria and pressure
gradient was still rising. We have hit 59 mph at Livingston a few
times this morning. Winds have backed off a bit, but should re-
intensify tonight as weak inversion develops and 700 mb winds
increase.
We have also upgraded the high wind watch from Big Timber to
Judith Gap to a High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 6 pm
Monday. Soundings suggest winds could pick up at Big Timber later
tonight in sync with the increase in 700mb winds. By Monday
morning this will likely get a mix of gap flow and mixing
resulting in strong winds up to Harlowton as well ahead of the
cold front that is progged to slide south into our area just
after the noon hour. Soundings suggest deep post frontal mixing
for an hour or two with gusts reaching 40 to 50 mph for many
locations...especially across east central Montana into the
Dakotas. There is a slight chance of isolated gusts pushing well
into the 50s. However, 850 mb wind proggs remain below 50kts (a
rule of thumb necessity for high winds), and strongest pressure
falls track over NE Montana into the Dakotas. So we do not expect
widespread high winds to occur over the plains. That said...it
will likely be a rather brisk and windy afternoon with highs
initially in the upper 40s to and 50s, cooling behind the frontal
passage in the late afternoon.
Model cross sections show mid level moisture increasing with this
system...but low levels never really saturate. Therefore, despite
strong frontogenesis tracking across the area, the lower
elevations may only see scattered rain showers (15-25% Pops)
tomorrow afternoon into the evening. However, there is a period of
decent lift over the higher foothills and mountains that may
result in some quick snowfall accumulations of an inch or two for
the high country.
Winds will die off after early evening as pressure rises fade.
Overnight lows will range from 30s west to upper teens and 20s
along the Dakota border.
Probability for gusts to at least 50 mph Monday:
Livingston (100%), Billings (55%), Sheridan (35%), Miles City
(45%) and Baker (65%). Take precautions now and tie down any
loose items outdoors. Use caution or consider taking an alternate
route if traveling on I-90 or Hwy 191 through areas of
Livingston/Big Timber/Harlowton.
Fire Weather Issues: Fire weather indices with regard to dryness
and fuels are marginal in our east. However, over the border in
Harding County, South Dakota things have been much drier. Winds
may also be stronger in this area based on the path of pressure
rises and usual climatology. Fosberg Indices smack SE MT and NW SD
pretty hard. Therefore, in coordination with surrounding offices,
we have issued a Red Flag Warning for Fire Weather Zone 133 from
10 AM to 7 PM Monday. BT
Tuesday through Sunday...
Upper level ridging will persist Tuesday through Wednesday
morning, before an upper trough begins to move inland along the
West Coast. Above normal temperatures are forecast Tuesday through
Thursday with highs in the 50s to mid 60sF. Expect dry conditions
Tuesday into Wednesday, before the chance for precipitation
begins to increase over the western mountains Wednesday afternoon.
The aforementioned upper low brings uncertainties with it such as
the path, speed, and depth. Overall, there is higher certainty in
cooler and wetter conditions late this week and into the weekend,
as shown by ensembles and cluster analysis. A surface low over
the Pacific Northwest is depicted moving across Montana, Wednesday
and Thursday. The low will deepen concurrently with the upper low
moving across the southwestern US. Models show the two stacking
over the Midwest, Friday into Saturday. Precipitation will be all
snow in the mountains while lower elevations will likely start
with rain, Thursday, before transitioning to snow early Friday.
There remains uncertainty with total snow amounts, though light
accumulations across the area are in the current forecast. Higher
snowfall is possible along the foothills and north facing terrain.
An important note with this system is the potential for much
higher snowfall amounts in the far east. If the system wraps up
further north and west, into the High Plains, then places like
Baker and Ekalaka could see significant snow totals.
A transition period with brief ridging is shown by models next
Saturday, ahead of another potential Pacific trough to start the
following week. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 30s
and 40s, Friday and Saturday, and upper 30s to 50F next Sunday.
If you have travel plans our are caring for young livestock,
please monitor the forecast over the coming days.
Matos
&&
.AVIATION...
Wind is the main aviation concern through Monday.
Overnight tonight, strong winds are expected around KLVM, K6S0,
and K3HT. Strong winds are also expect in and over the mountains.
Areas that remain calmer at the surface tonight, like KMLS, KBHK,
and KSHR, could see low level wind shear develop as stronger winds
aloft move in. While KBIL is expected to see surface gusts
increase early Monday morning, a brief period of low level wind
shear is possible around 12 to 16z.
During the day Monday, increased to strong winds are expected
across the area. During the afternoon and early evening, a frontal
passage will bring a wind shift out of the west/northwest. Look
for winds to decrease behind the front Monday evening. Along with
the wind shift, generally light precipitation is possible around
KBIL, KLVM, and KSHR Monday afternoon and evening (15 to 30
percent chance of precipitation). Arends
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/060 032/059 036/062 038/061 031/041 022/045 025/050
01/N 20/B 01/B 13/R 66/S 12/S 23/O
LVM 043/049 032/051 035/053 036/050 025/035 019/039 024/042
03/R 30/B 12/R 36/R 86/S 24/S 45/S
HDN 036/061 029/058 031/063 035/062 028/040 018/043 023/050
01/N 20/B 00/B 12/R 67/S 22/S 22/R
MLS 042/056 027/056 032/061 036/062 028/035 015/036 016/043
00/N 00/B 00/B 11/B 35/O 20/B 11/B
4BQ 034/061 030/058 032/062 036/063 030/037 018/037 019/047
00/N 00/B 00/B 01/B 36/O 31/B 11/B
BHK 044/056 019/052 027/059 031/061 025/035 012/032 010/038
01/N 00/B 00/B 00/B 26/O 41/B 11/B
SHR 034/059 024/055 028/059 030/060 025/036 015/039 018/048
01/N 20/B 00/B 12/R 58/O 22/S 12/O
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...High Wind Warning in effect until 6 PM MDT Monday FOR ZONES
63-141-172-228.
Wind Advisory in effect until 6 PM MDT Monday FOR ZONES
65-66.
Red Flag Warning in effect from 10 AM to 7 PM MDT Monday FOR
ZONE 133.
WY...None.
&&
weather.gov/billingsThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Winds gusted up to 61 mph across the area.
Winds gusted up to 59 mph across the area.
Winds gusted up to 58 mph across the area.
Winds gusted up to 60 mph across the area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Montana in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Montana, March 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1238413, 1238407, 1238410, 1238409.