A boundary stretching across portions of Southeast Missouri resulted in thunderstorms with heavy rain during the early morning hours of the 23rd from Carter County southeastward to New Madrid. A broader area of rainfall arrived late morning which produced additional heavy rains.
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The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A boundary stretching across portions of Southeast Missouri resulted in thunderstorms with heavy rain during the early morning hours of the 23rd from Carter County southeastward to New Madrid. A broader area of rainfall arrived late morning which produced additional heavy rains. Flooding issues developed in Southeastern Carter County which received some of the higher totals from both rounds. Precipitable water values were around 1.8in. 850mb moisture transport was not particularly strong, but was pointed towards the NW to SE oriented early morning heavy rainfall line.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 23, 11:07 AM CST, 33 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1207 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Off and on rounds of showers and storms remain in the forecast today and tomorrow with activity peaking early this afternoon, and then again overnight into early Wednesday. - A few storms could be strong to severe with hail and gusty winds the main threat. Brief heavy rainfall may also lead to localized flooding. - Slightly below normal temperatures in the latter half of the week rebound back to normal by the weekend with dry weather conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 148 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 A large area of troughing from Utah to the western Great Lakes will continue to keep us in a fairly wet pattern, for the first time in weeks, over the next 2-3 days. Through daybreak, light winds and mostly clear skies coupled with wet ground from Monday's rains is leading to areas of fog. Conditions appear likely enough for dense fog that an advisory has been issued for a couple rows of our northern and northwestern most counties and will be watching for possible expansion. An area of locally diffluent upper flow is aiding in developing scattered thunderstorms over Tennessee and satellite shows some hints of that winding back into southeast Missouri and a stray storm or two may work into the area working with around 1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE for elevated parcels and at least a bit of surface-based instability. We get a push of WSW flow aloft in the late morning and afternoon producing both jet-level ascent (DCVA) and lower layer warm advection. Satellite/model observations show PWATs increasing to about 1.7-1.9 inches by late morning and afternoon. I think the peak of activity may time out slightly faster than current CAM guidance suggests based on the position of observed features and reflected that in the forecast. This results in peak coverage around 20z or so before starting to taper off a little ahead of the next wave. With modest instability and a little bit of shear (sfc-6km about 35-40 kt) can't completely rule out a severe storm or two, although with PWATs around 1.8 to 1.9 may have to watch more for localized flooding today. The main trough gets closer tonight into Wednesday with 250-300mb flow increasing to about 100-110 kts to our northwest. The ECMWF deterministic model is about 6-12 hours faster with frontal passage with this system, and is about 3-4 mb stronger with the parent low over central Illinois. The only obvious difference in the two is the ECMWF generates vigorous convection over central MO and appears to be deepening the low based on grid-scale convective feedback. The overall synoptic picture though supports shower and a few thunderstorms through the overnight and at least the possibility of a more focused line area of storms immediately ahead of the cold front during the day Wednesday. 0-6 km shear remains about 40 kts, with low level shear increasing to 15-20 kts which opens up the hodograph just enough to be worth watching. At the end of the day I think rain/clouds stability probably wins out however, limiting severe threat, but localized flooding will remain possible. Once the main trough clears conditions dry out once again with highs in the low 80s and overnight lows in the low 60s through the remainder of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Several impacts to the terminals over the next 24 hours as a disturbance moves across the region. Two rounds of showers and storms will be possible this afternoon into the evening and again tonight. Stronger storms with the first round will be capable of causing gusty winds while heavy rainfall is the main concern overnight. After pcpn tapers off early Wednesday morning, low ceilings and patchy fog will be probable with LIFR/IFR reductions. Gradual improvement to MVFR occurs towards the end of the period. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && DISCUSSION...JGG AVIATION...DW
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 204 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-240715- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 204 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 /304 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Areas of dense fog will be possible through early this morning, particularly along and north of a line from Cape Girardeau to Evansville. At least a couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms is expected today and again overnight tonight. A few storms could briefly become severe with large hail the main threat, isolated damaging winds are also possible. The thunderstorms will be capable of heavy rain and localized flash flooding will also be possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. The risk for at least a few thunderstorms continues through Wednesday afternoon. A few storms could become severe with hail and wind the main threat. Locally heavy rain and isolated flash flooding will remain possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Formal spotter activation is not anticipated, but spotters are encouraged to report significant weather according to standard operating procedure. JGG
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flooding issues developed in Southeastern Carter County between Ellsinore and Grandin as early and late morning rounds of heavy rainfall combined to result in a radar estimated 2.5-5 inches of rainfall over the area.
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NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1292068.