A line of showers and thunderstorms formed for the late morning hours in Southeast Missouri. A cold air funnel was observed east of Bernie.
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The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A line of showers and thunderstorms formed for the late morning hours in Southeast Missouri. A cold air funnel was observed east of Bernie. MLCAPE values were over 1000J/kg while wind shear was weak.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 9, 5:08 AM CST, 5 hours 13 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 608 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms today will be more focused across west KY and southwest IN. Coverage becomes more isolated Thursday and Friday. Chances increase again this weekend, particularly Saturday. - Heat indices on Friday and Saturday near 100 degrees. After slightly cooler heat indices (mid-upper 90s) on Sunday and Monday, a return to near 100 degree values are possible Tuesday and Wednesday. - Uncertainty exists regarding rain chances early to mid next week, but potential is there for daily shower and storm chances to continue. && .UPDATE... Issued at 603 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 210 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 A 500mb trough axis oriented from Northern Indiana to Southern Illinois will pivot east across the Ohio Valley today. While the forcing from this feature will primarily be focused east of our cwa today, the 700-850mb trough axis hangs up further west which may be enough to initiate convection through the day. This is most likely across western KY and southwest IN, but can't rule out some isolated development further north and west. Pwats will be decreasing through the course of the day from the northwest, but still will be near 2" across the KY Pennyrile. So can't rule out some localized flooding issues again. Deep layer moisture is lower Thursday and Friday and forcing looks to be limited each day (as the primary shortwave energy remains north and west). So coverage of convection should be far more isolated. This should also result in more sunshine, helping to boost highs back around 90 or a few degrees above. Humidity levels will remain high, which allows heat index readings to near 100 by Friday. A northern stream shortwave traversing across the Midwest Friday into Saturday will allow a cold front to slip south towards our cwa on Saturday. This will provide an uptick in convection, and pwats creep back towards 2" allowing some efficient rainfall rates to occur. There are indications the boundary washes out/stalls out across/nearby our cwa keeping high pwats in place. Impulses within the 500mb flow may produce daily shower and storm chances each day Sunday through mid next week. This is despite the fact that the upper ridge across the southeast tries to build further north. Thus the unsettled pattern may remain in place, with the brunt of the heat positioned to our south. Looks more like typical summer-time heat and humidity with highs remaining in the upper 80s to low 90s, dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, and scattered thunderstorm activity each day. Depending on convective coverage, and resulting cloud cover, we may see a return of 100 degree heat index readings by Tuesday. Longer range signals seem to be indicating a more pronounced shortwave trough sweeping across the Ohio Valley late next week which may allow a true cold front to actually make full passage. This would result in a nice break from the high humidity and may allow dewpoints to fall into the 60s in the July 18-19 period. However, this is still 8-10 days out so nothing to get excited about by any means. It's hard to get a break from the 70+ dewpoints in July in our area of the country, and models might just be teasing us with false hope. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 603 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 IFR/low MVFR stratus will impact portions of the region this morning, before conditions gradually improve to VFR levels by 18z. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are possible through the afternoon, with west KY and southwest IN most favored. Probability for thunder is too low to include mention at any TAF site. Skies become mostly clear tonight, which combined with calm winds, may allow some patchy fog to develop. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && UPDATE...SP DISCUSSION...SP AVIATION...SP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 319 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-100830- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 319 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 /419 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Scattered thunderstorms are possible today, primarily across west Kentucky and southwest Indiana. The main hazards will be torrential rainfall, lightning, and gusty winds. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Daily chances for thunderstorms exists Thursday through early next week, although coverage should be quite isolated Thursday and Friday before increasing this weekend. The primary hazards will be torrential rainfall, lightning, and gusty winds. Heat index values may near 100 degrees across portions of the region on Friday and Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Paducah radar (KPAH), 106 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:20 UTC.
1 funnel cloud. Local standard time, as filed.
A cold air funnel was visible east of Bernie, roughly two-thirds of the way down to the surface. A public photo of it was relayed by emergency management.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1285301.