Showers and thunderstorms initiated along and ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary during the afternoon of July 7th. The environment was characterized by high moisture and instability and weak shear, leading to gusty winds being the primary threat for the day.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LSX wrote it up.
Showers and thunderstorms initiated along and ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary during the afternoon of July 7th. The environment was characterized by high moisture and instability and weak shear, leading to gusty winds being the primary threat for the day. Thunderstorms overperformed, producing isolated wind damage and flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 7, 1:57 PM CST, 23 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 257 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from the eastern Ozarks through southwestern Illinois. Isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms are possible over central Missouri. - Another round of thunderstorms is possible Tuesday. A few thunderstorms may become strong with isolated severe potential. The primary threat will be damaging wind gusts to 60 mph and a localized threat for heavy rain. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tuesday Night) Issued at 231 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Regional analysis shows a diffuse or remnant cold front slowly sinking southward across sections of southern Missouri and Illinois. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have largely been focused along this boundary early this afternoon. Curving back to the northwest through central Missouri is isolated activity that is largely supported by mid/upper level vorticity riding over top the washed out surface boundary and theta-e gradient that extends through mid- Missouri from NW to SE. The boundary, which is essentially washed out/quasi stationary, will remain the primary driver for additional showers and thunderstorms through this evening. Trends over the last few hours have showed a slight reinforcement toward the south as a result of cooler air produced by ongoing thunderstorms in this region. If the cooler air produced by thunderstorms continues to push the boundary south, which come CAMs suggest, much of it will shift that direction over the next few hours. That leaves us with isolated to perhaps scattered convection over central Missouri, where mid/upper vorticity is currently tracking east-southeast along a theta-e gradient that separates the moist atmosphere from the copious moisture further southwest. Fortunately, thunderstorms are developing in a weak shear environment and other than the semi-linear orientation along the diffuse boundary, there isn't much organization expected. Therefore, should a thunderstorm become strong, the primary threat would be gusty winds. Even that potential is low considering the inverted-V signature isn't as pronounced as I'd like to otherwise see (marked by 10 dewpoint depressions). Thunderstorm chances never really zero out, but will wane late this evening as diurnal instability is lost after sunset. Tuesday sets up another complicated scenario which poses slightly better chances for stronger thunderstorms. CAMs show some semblance of an MCS taking shape over sections of eastern Nebraska, then sliding southeast near the IA/MO border overnight. By Tuesday morning, the complex weakens, if not entirely dissipates as it outruns its H8 theta-e source and become outflow dominant. Slight chance/chance PoPs cover this potential over central MO into west-central IL. The biggest question was how far east to spread slight chance PoPs considering the uncertainty with how long the complex survives. This will certainly be an area of opportunity for fine tuning in subsequent updates. The best potential for thunderstorms comes Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening with the caveat that prior convection will be long gone, allowing instability to build through the afternoon. The complex addressed in the prior paragraph will send and outflow boundary southward, encountering dewpoints in the low to mid-70s and SBCAPE values of 2500-3500 J/kg per HRRR/RAP/NAM guidance, as well as interaction with the remnant surface boundary to its south. How it plays out is dependent on timing and placement, which has not been so consistent across individual guidance. Should a slow solution play out, thunderstorms would initialize further northwest and take advantage of an unstable atmosphere that is largely undisturbed or merely riddles with isolated to scattered activity. Should the quicker solution play out, the interaction with the surface boundary could result in development sooner, which would have broader geographical coverage that Monday. This would then lead to competing updrafts in a low shear (20 knots or less) environment with moisture loaded thunderstorms falling into a surface layer that is marginally supportive of wet downburst. Therefore, the SPC's marginal outlook seems reasonable with the potential for isolated damaging wind gust to around 60 mph. Additionally, PWAT values around 2 inches suggest heavy rainfall will be possible within thunderstorms. However, these look somewhat progressive and while localized ponding or nuisance flooding is possible, it does not look like a widespread issue at this time. Maples && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Next Monday) Issued at 231 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 The main features that draw attention in the long term period are the strengthening upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest and the stacked ridge centered over the western Atlantic that extends westward through the Gulf States. By Wednesday, the surface front that aids in thunderstorm development Tuesday into Tuesday evening will be reinforces southward as the mid/upper trough passes over the mid-Mississippi Valley. As is typical for mid-summer patterns, guidance varies on the exact position and resulting precipitation potential. Nonetheless, the general consensus is that thunderstorms will be concentrated along and south of I-70 as high pressure builds in front the northwest and northwesterly flow draws in slightly cooler and drier air. The remainder of the forecast is somewhat of a squeeze play, as the strong upper level ridge over the southwestern CONUS begins to flatten shift slightly west. What initially steers the active track over the northern Rockies into the Plains, will eventually give way to zonal flow aloft. Meanwhile, the ridge over the southeastern U.S. could be a player in convective trends further out. In summer patterns like this, convection will often get hinged up at the northwest side of the surface/mid-level ridge, but can also be invigorated by shortwave/troughs that are introduced from the west. Considering that upper level flow turns zonal in time, additional chances for thunderstorms will press through the region, along with the enhancement of southerly flow at the back side of the southeastern ridge and ahead of approaching systems. While no single day looks completely dry, the most of the dry time might end up being Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as surface high pressure crosses the region. By late week into next weekend, a better organized trough tracks west to east across the central Rockies, resulting in surface cyclogenesis over the Plains. A cold front trails the system and could be best chance at showers and thunderstorms beyond Wednesday. Maples && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Despite the dry forecast at all but KUIN (PROB30), there are several caveats to what is an uncertain forecast with respect to point-specific impacts. What is essentially a washed out cold front over southeastern MO and southwestern IL will be the primary focus for afternoon/evening thunderstorm potential. Then, another area in question is central MO, where isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two is being supported by ascent from mid/upper level vorticity. The best potential for thunderstorms will ride along the surface boundary south of the terminals this afternoon. The one exception will be central MO, where trends will have to be monitored, but as of now, showers have remained north of KCOU/KJEF with Little indication that it will move much further south. KUIN's PROB30 addresses the potential that isolated/widely scattered thunderstorms impact areas of northeastern MO and west-central IL between late morning/early afternoon Tuesday as a weakening complex progresses southeast out of the Plains. Considering the summer pattern, each round will dependent on the prior round, which results in a higher degrees of uncertainty at any given point. That said, better probabilities for thunderstorms will be near the end or just beyond the 24 hour TAF period Tuesday, when additional convection redevelops and present potential for broader coverage in scattered thunderstorms. Until then, VFR is favored. Maples && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && WFO LSX
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service St Louis MO 307 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-082015- Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL- Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL- Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO- Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO- Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO- Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO- Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO- Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO- Madison MO-Reynolds MO- 307 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening, primarily across central and southeastern Missouri. Additional thunderstorms are possible late tonight over parts of central and northeast Missouri. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. There is a chance for thunderstorms across the area Tuesday through Sunday. The highest chance will be on Tuesday afternoon and early evening. A few thunderstorms may produce strong winds and locally heavy rain for brief periods. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. Maples
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1042 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0415 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg Caseyville 38.64N 90.03W
07/06/2025 St. Clair IL 911 Call Center
Multiple reports of trees and wires down
around Caseyville.
&&
PfahlerPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1043 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0419 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 S Collinsville 38.66N 90.00W
07/06/2025 St. Clair IL 911 Call Center
Reports of wires down around Collinsville.
&&
PfahlerPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1055 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0600 PM Flash Flood Ramsey 39.14N 89.11W
07/06/2025 Fayette IL Emergency Mngr
A home in Ramsey saw significant basement
flooding, including walls being knocked down
by flood waters. LSR time is approximate.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1122 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0505 PM Tornado 2 SSW Bayle City 39.08N 89.18W
07/06/2025 Fayette IL NWS Storm Survey
A brief EF-0 tornado occurred near Bingham,
IL causing damage to a few farm outbuildings
and crops. Video evidence confirmed the
tornado.
&&The St Louis radar (KLSX), 110 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:20 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
An amateur radio operator reported a measured wind gust of 68 mph in Auxvasse.
Thunderstorm winds downed multiple tree limbs in the area. Billboards were blown away and an RV was tipped over at the I-70 RV Center. Multiple RVs were damaged.
Fredrock Glampground received 4 inches of rain in 1.5 hours. This resulted in Twelvemile Creek overtopping a private bridge and making portions of the campground inaccessible. Near Saco, a portion of a resident's property were inaccessible due to road washouts.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1272891, 1272893, 1272895.