Funnel Cloud in Missouri, July 15, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1242 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
  each afternoon for the next week. The strongest storms may
  pose an isolated threat of damaging winds. Heavy rainfall will
  accompany all storms with at least an isolated threat for
  flash flooding.

- Heat indices will climb into the triple digits and possibly
  exceed advisory threshold throughout the region Wednesday
  through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

The synoptic situation looks very little changed from 24 hours
ago (or for that matter 3-4 days ago). Broad/weak troughing
over the western plains feeds into a 40-50 kt west southwesterly
jet "max" over MO/IL/IN/OH this morning. To the south of that
feature (including the quad-state region) sits a humid Gulf
driven soup with column PWAT values of 2.1 to 2.2 inches and
surface dewpoints in the mid 70s. Observed and model soundings
support another day of scattered to locally numerous showers and
thunderstorms later this afternoon and diminishing this
evening. Severe potential remains limited but local downbursts
remain possible and exceptionally efficient rainfall rates with
warm cloud layer depths over 13,000 ft in 2.2 inch PWAT will
make flooding possible anywhere storms persist more than about
30 minutes given our ground conditions.

Wednesday a shortwave trough begins to eject off the Rockies
over the high plains but probably too far away to influence our
weather much. Expect another day of scattered showers and storms
with downburst/efficient rain potential.

Thursday that trough gets a little closer as it begins to be
absorbed in the broader polar jet over the Great Lakes region -
so we could see a little bit better coverage. A surface front
also looks to work close to, but probably staying north of, the
area Thursday evening. Deterministic and ensemble guidance has
dewpoints 74-78 during this period which pushes heat index
values close to advisory criteria and it remains possible,
particularly Thursday or Friday, we will hit that threshold if
we end up with a little less cloud cover/rainfall coverage.
Deterministic ECMWF keeps the jet max far enough north Friday to
perhaps give us a little less thunder coverage, but the GFS
keeps it close enough to keep thunder going through the weekend.

Monday is the first glimpse of enough ridging building in aloft
to suppress convection a little but we still have precip
chances. I guess at least the good fortune is there aren't any
organized synoptic scale systems interacting with this juicy air
that give us a clear cut flash flood/severe risk, or not strong
enough subsidence to give us a clean heat danger situation, but
it won't take a lot of nudging either way to get into that
territory for a day or two.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Pop up showers and storms remain possible throughout the
afternoon and into the evening. Some may affect the terminals.
Scattered low level diurnal cumulus is present across the
entire area. Winds are out of the southwest at around 5-10 kts
and will become light and variable overnight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...HICKFORD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
719 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-161230-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-White-
Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-Hardin-
Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-Warrick-
Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-Livingston-
Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-Union KY-Webster-
Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-
Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-
Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
719 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 /819 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Illinois, southwest
Indiana, western Kentucky and southeast Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected into early this
evening. A storm or two may briefly become strong to severe with
gusty to damaging winds the main threat. Torrential rainfall will
accompany any storms and flash flooding may develop where any
storms persist.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected each afternoon
through Monday. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible and
all storms will be capable of brief torrential rainfall.

Afternoon heat indices will climb into the 100 to 105 degree range
throughout the Quad State Wednesday through Saturday

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

JGG