A deepening upper level low traversed across the upper Midwest and stretched a cold front over eastern Kansas and southern Missouri. Strong frontogenesis, aided by a strong upper level jet, sagged the aforementioned front southeast into the Mid-South.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
A deepening upper level low traversed across the upper Midwest and stretched a cold front over eastern Kansas and southern Missouri. Strong frontogenesis, aided by a strong upper level jet, sagged the aforementioned front southeast into the Mid-South. This quick moving system brought a mix of wintry precipitation from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. Arctic air was unable to reach the southernmost areas which resulted in lower snow accumulations, but in the north; strong frontal forcing and cold air present resulted in impactful snow accumulations. Less than typical snow-to-liquid ratios prevailed Tuesday evening, but increased during the overnight hours before the upper low traversed east by sunrise Wednesday morning.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 18, 3:24 PM CST, 1 hour 36 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
324 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
...New DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 325 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
- A winter storm was bringing sleet and heavy snow to the Ozarks
at mid-afternoon. This storm will move into the Midsouth this
evening and exit Wednesday morning. As much as 5 inches of snow
is forecast over northeast Arkansas and the Missouri bootheel
through Wednesday morning. 1 to 3 inches of snow is forecast
along the I-40 corridor, with lesser amounts to the south. Sleet
will likely mix with snow this evening over east central
Arkansas, the Memphis metro, and north Mississippi. Only light
glazing of ice is expected from freezing rain, mainly in north
Mississippi.
- The winter storm system will likely bring banded areas of snow,
with accumulations varying more than usual over short
distances. Sleet along and south of I-40 will also have the
potential to reduce snow accumulations, while making travel
hazardous.
- Bitterly cold temperatures will spread through the Midsouth
Wednesday and persist through the early weekend. Wind chills
will drop to the single digits areawide Wednesday morning.
Thursday morning's wind chills will drop below zero north of
I-40, to the around zero south of I-40. A Cold Weather Advisory
is in effect for the next two mornings.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
At midafternoon, KLZK radar showed wintry precipitation underway
over much of AR, downstream an open longwave trough over the
southern high plains. GOES IR and water vapor imagery showed
banded areas of lift extending well downstream of the upper trough.
Little has changed in the short range guidance, with respect to
snow potential. NBM deterministic snow amounts remain below LREF,
though both ensemble systems are likely smoothing the snow
banding potential. Official snow forecast is near the NBM 75th
percentile. Locally higher (and lower) accumulations are likely as
frontogentic bands set up this evening and early overnight.
Adding the forecast uncertainty is evening sleet potential along
and south of I-40. The official snow forecast exhibits a rather
sharp southern gradient along and just south of I-40. Winter
weather headlines remain unchanged from this morning.
There is greater certainty with respect to bitterly cold temperatures
from tonight through Saturday morning. As the snow tapers off and
exits east of the TN River Saturday morning, a 1054mb Arctic
surface pressure ridge center will start it's southward track
through the northern Great Plains, while the leading edge of the
Arctic air enters the FL panhandle. This airmass will take several
days to lift out of the Midsouth, despite upper level pattern
deamplification. Saturday afternoon appears to be our first time
above freezing, but perhaps only barely so over northeast AR, the
MO bootheel and northwest TN.
Eventually, snow will melt and temps will return to near normal
under quasi-zonal west-northwest flow aloft early next week.
Thereafter, upper level pattern trends appear more dicey, with
the GEFS and EPS ensemble means depicting another longwave trough
over the eastern U.S.. Such a pattern would return below normal
temperatures to the Midsouth, while well above normal conditions
prevail over the western half of the CONUS.
PWB
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1112 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
Precipitation will start to move into the region late this
afternoon. Precipitation may start out as a mix of rain, sleet and
snow before changing over to snow. KJBR will see visibilities drop
to as low as 1/2SM at times late this evening. Current VFR
ceilings will lower to MVFR levels when precipitation starts with
a period of IFR levels overnight. Winds will be mainly from the
northeast at 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts before shifting to
the north overnight.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Wednesday for ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048.
Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST
Wednesday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Wednesday to 10 AM CST Thursday
for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for ARZ049-058.
MO...Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Wednesday for MOZ113-115.
Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST
Wednesday for MOZ113-115.
Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Wednesday to 10 AM CST Thursday
for MOZ113-115.
MS...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST
Wednesday for MSZ001>017-020>024.
Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Wednesday to 10 AM CST Thursday
for MSZ001>017-020>024.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for MSZ001>017-
020>024.
TN...Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Wednesday for TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>052-088.
Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST
Wednesday for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Wednesday to 10 AM CST Thursday
for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for TNZ053>055-
089>092.
&&
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...ARSThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
Up to six inches of snowfall measured across the county.
Two to four inches of snowfall measured across the county.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, February 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1236517, 1236518.