Tornadoes and Flash Flooding in Mississippi, March 30, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1119 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Textbook wake low that developed last evening is now moving well
east of the area this morning. Some short term stability due to a
nice 1C inversion at 1700ft. But all guidance is still developing
some convection over the Miss gulf coastal counties around daylight
today. And as usual with these small scale systems, these models are
in disagreement on where to place it. We will leave the flood watch
for the eastern portion of the area but cancel it for the western.
We are in between systems now. The cold front that is moving into
the area will provide a lot of sfc support in the form of forcing to
storms. The environment has not changed outside the subsidence on
the back side of the wake low that has stabilized the area this
morning. This stability will hold until early Monday morning. Storms
forming along the front will be more than capable of producing
severe weather with all modes possible. The main variables would be
damaging winds and hail with some tornadoes possible. Heavy rain
will accompany these storms but they will be moving at a good pace.
But given antecedent conditions, we are already primed with
saturated grounds, and it wouldn't take much to push some of the
hardest hit areas into flooding. There is some indications of
another MCS structure developing along the dry line in south
central TX and move NE toward the new front(movinmg in from the
north) later today. This area is shown in all models but the
behavior is different some. They all have this feature moving NE
until it reaches the front, it then explodes with storms over NE
TX through northern Miss via help from the front. The front then
moves this area SE while allowing H7 dry air to entrain causing
the mass to accelerate SE outrunning the front and diving through
south central and or SE LA. This occurs between midnight and
daylight Monday morning. This is quite possible and if it does get
going, we should see it exhibiting these behaviors well before it
runs through here. This scenario would give some very strong
storms with all the baggage.

The front stalls along or near the coast Monday as the H7 ridge
moves over it. This causes dissapation of the rain that will be with
it as it moves in, and keeps anything else from developing while it
is stalled.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

The front will begin to move back to the north as a warm front
Tuesday. Guidance is beginning to slow the next front moving east by
mid next week. The placement of this boundary will be very important
for folks north of us as it will cause some very dangerous flooding
concerns. Down this way though, we may see some showers from time to
time but this is mainly due to convergent sfc flow with moisture
loading for most of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1117 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

MVFR conditions prevail at all area aiports. A frontal system will
be moving through the area overnight tonight into the daytime
hours tomorrow, which will lower ceilings and visibilties. The
flight category should remain MVFR with brief drops to IFR as a
result. Gusty winds will also be expected as the system moves
through the area. MSW

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Wind direction will remain SE to S at 10-15kt through much of this
week. A cold front will move to the coast and stall Monday and there
is the possibility that at least some of the coastal waters
temporarily develop a north wind at 10-15kt late Monday. But this
front will quickly become a warm front moving north bringing
southerly flow back to the northern gulf Tuesday which will remain
through the rest of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  83  57  82 /  70  80  10  20
BTR  70  83  62  83 /  50  70  10  10
ASD  69  85  62  83 /  20  80   0  10
MSY  71  83  66  82 /  20  70   0  10
GPT  67  80  61  77 /  20  80   0  10
PQL  66  82  60  80 /  20  80   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...TE