A small area of worsening drought conditions developed early in the month and persisted through the remainder of March 2025. Despite slightly above normal precipitation, much fell while the ground was still frozen.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FSD wrote it up.
A small area of worsening drought conditions developed early in the month and persisted through the remainder of March 2025. Despite slightly above normal precipitation, much fell while the ground was still frozen.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Sioux Falls, SD wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 10, 9:24 PM CST, 2 hours 36 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1024 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A strong Spring storm system remains on track for the Friday through Saturday timeframe. Multiple hazards are possible in the forms of thunderstorms, high winds, and snow. Continue to check the latest forecast for the most up to date information. - As of this time, there is a 50-90% chance for rain to transition to snow Friday night into Saturday morning. This is the same time period where strong winds are likely (30-60% chance for gusts to exceed 50 mph) to overspread much of the area and persist through the day on Saturday. - Above average temperatures remain on track to continue through much of the upcoming week. High temperatures into the 60s and 70s are likely for the second half of this week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Fire danger continues this afternoon given how humidity values have fallen to 19-25% while winds have strengthened with gusts up to 20- 30 mph. Red Flag conditions will continue through 9 pm for locations north of I-90 and west of the James River before a cold front passes through the forecast area. No precipitation is expected along or behind the front given the dry conditions in place. At the same time, a shot of cold air advection (CAA) will be delivered behind the front. This will quickly cool low level thermal profiles and restrengthen mixing. Gusts up to 20-35 mph are expected through the overnight hours but will weaken by tomorrow morning. Low temperatures are expected to fall to the 20s to low 30s overnight. Tuesday will be a cooler day, relatively speaking, thanks to the previously mentioned CAA. Winds will be much lighter as surface ridging slides through the Northern Plains. 850 mb temperatures will warm to either side of 0C. Mixing this to the surface will result in highs up to the 40s to low 50s along highway-20. Light southeasterly winds will persist through the overnight hours, keeping lows a little warming, only falling to the upper 20s and low 30s. Upper level ridging builds back into the Northern Plains for Wednesday and Thursday. This will push high temperatures back into the 60s on Wednesday and upper 60s and 70s on Thursday. Dew points look to remain in the 30s to low 40s on Thursday though. With the warm temperatures in place, this could lead to lower humidity values across the area. A tightening surface pressure gradient (SPG) will lead to breezy winds across the area and may potentially result in elevated fire danger. More details can be found in the fire weather discussion. A strong storm system remains on track to begin to push into the forecast area on Friday. The GFS, Euro, and Canadian remain in generally decent agreement in the progression and evolution of this wave. The antecedent environment ahead of this wave remains quite unstable where a strong surface low pressure system looks to develop. The models support this as they show a sub 980 mb low quickly developing on Friday and pushing northeastwards. Although there remains some differences amongst the models, the general consensus is that the previously mentioned surface low will ride along and incoming cold front from the northwest. The warm sector of this system remains quite large but questions remain as to how far west or east it will set up. The GFS, Euro, and Canadian ensembles vary in how far west better moisture gets. The latest LREF probabilities have the highest probabilities placed along and east of I-35. This is also supported by the Euro Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) as it shows 50-70% of its members pointing to above average chances for thunderstorms in this area via its CAPE-shear product. Despite potential better moisture remaining east of the area, some instability remains possible given the steep lapse rates that will be in place aloft. There is still some overlap of stronger shear and instability at this time, mainly over parts of northwest Iowa. Thus, thunderstorms remain possible in this system but could see chances for thunder extend back northwestward given the elevated instability that looks to be in place. Could see some strong to severe storms given the overlap or shear and instability but this potential remains conditional at this time. Any thunderstorm chances will come to an end Friday night as conditions quickly transition to wintry conditions. This system looks to quickly occlude as it pushes northeastwards. This will set up a trough of warm air aloft (TROWAL) and potentially bring snow with it thanks to temperatures quickly cooling behind the previously mentioned cold front Friday night. The LREF probabilities support this as they show increasing probabilities (50-90% chance) for 850 mb temperatures and surface temperatures to fall below freezing. This will also be the same period of time that winds will strengthen across the area. The National Blend of Models (NBM) supports this as it shows a 30-60% chance for wind gusts to exceed 50 mph Friday night through Saturday. The highest probabilities lie along and west of I-29. Any falling snow along with the strong winds will have the potential to create Blizzard conditions across the area. The potential Blizzard conditions look to occur only when snow is falling at this time. Depending on how much snow falls in this system, patchy blowing snow could persist into Sunday. While what was just described paints a look as to what is currently possible, please continue to check the latest forecast as things can and will change heading into the end of this week. Things calm down on Sunday as winds wane throughout the day. High temperatures look to cool to near to below average with highs only warming to the 30s and 40s. Depending on how much snow falls, there could be remaining patchy blowing snow across the area. Otherwise calmer conditions are expected to continue into Monday next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1022 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Other than some gusty winds overnight into early Tuesday morning, VFR conditions are expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 The next chance for elevated fire danger will come on Thursday as temperatures warm into the upper 60s and 70s across the area while RH values fall to 25-40% along and west of I-29. Breezy winds will return to the area as gusts look to strengthen up to 25-30 mph. Questions remain about how low humidity values will get at this time. Despite the humidity concerns, dry fuels with the breezy winds will result in high to very high fire danger for the day. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && DISCUSSION...Meyers AVIATION...08 FIRE WEATHER...Meyers
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 929 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097- 098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-120230- Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee- Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson- Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory- Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson- McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme- Yankton-Union- 929 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Iowa, west central Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota, and southeast South Dakota. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday A large storm system will enter the Plains and Upper Midwest Friday and continue into the upcoming weekend. This system has the potential of bringing multiple risks to the area, including thunderstorms, high winds, and even accumulating snow. Details remain highly uncertain with this storm system, so continue to monitor your local forecast. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Moderate (D1) drought worsened to severe (D2) conditions early in March.
Moderate (D1) drought worsened to severe (D2) conditions early in March.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, March 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1253872, 1253873.