Storms moving from northeast South Dakota generated strong winds in west-central Minnesota. Heavy rainfall from these and previous storms also resulted in localized flooding.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABR wrote it up.
Storms moving from northeast South Dakota generated strong winds in west-central Minnesota. Heavy rainfall from these and previous storms also resulted in localized flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Aberdeen, SD wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 28, 6:15 PM CST, 0 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 715 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 50 to 75 percent chance of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. An Enhanced risk, or level 3 out of 5, is in place across central SD with a Moderate risk, or level 4 out of 5, across most of eastern SD. Winds in excess of 80 mph, tornadoes, and hail 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Locally heavy rain may produce flash flooding in areas that have received heavy rainfall in the last few days. - Hot and humid conditions to continue over south central SD into this evening, with heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees expected. Heat Advisories are in effect from 1 PM through 8 PM CDT this evening. - Lofted smoke that has drifted over this area, from wildfires over the western states, should persist through at least Tuesday. - Cooler air is expected Tuesday through at least Saturday, with highs mainly in the mid 70s to low 80s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 709 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Heat Advisory has been cancelled as temperatures and heat indices have fallen below criteria. Otherwise, scattered showers and thunderstorms continue mainly east of the James River with another cluster of thunderstorms over south central SD. Most of these are below severe criteria, however, there is still the possibility of wind gusts of 60-70 mph with some of this ongoing convection over eastern SD into west central MN over the next few hours. UPDATE Issued at 624 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Updated forecast for the 00Z TAFs below. UPDATE Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Updated discussion for the 18Z TAFs below. UPDATE Issued at 1010 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Overall it is calm before the storm as satellite indicates a blend of clouds and sun over the area with temperatures ranging in the lower to upper 70s and dewpoints, quite high, in the upper 60s. A Heat Advisory is in place over south central SD this afternoon through 8pm as the heat and humidity will combine to create heat indices ranging between 100 to as high as 105 degrees. We are still expecting storms to form this afternoon, however models really do not agree on exact timing and location at this point. As of now, the best guess is that storms will form/move in over north central SD between noon and 3pm with the storms forming into a line rather quickly as it will track quickly east and southeast over the eastern half of SD this afternoon and evening. All modes of severe weather is expected with wind gusts in excess of 80 mph possible, hail 2 inches in diameter, tornadoes, and heavy rains. A Moderate Risk (level 4/5) is in effect along and east/southeast of a line from Bowdle to Gettysburg where widespread severe storms is likely. The rest of the forecast area remains in an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5). Minor updates made to the forecast otherwise the overall forecast remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 209 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 As of 2 AM CDT storms have moved out of the southeast portion of the forecast area. Reported rain amounts have been around the 3 to 5 inch mark. Flood warnings remain in effect for this area. Be careful if driving and do not enter flooded roadways. Temperatures around the region are in the upper 60s to low 70s with winds out generally out of the northeast at around 10 mph. SPC has indicated the possibility of a derecho this afternoon and evening across most, if not all, of the forecast area as a boundary moves generally northwest to southeast across the area. Exact track and timing are uncertain at this time but all CAMs point towards this conclusion. This has increased the SPC outlook to an Enhanced risk, which is level 3 out of 5, for central SD and a Moderate risk, level 4 out of 5, for most of eastern SD. Wind gusts in excess of 80 mph, large hail 2 inches in diameter, and tornadoes will be possible. Locally heavy rain may produce flash flooding in areas that have had heavy rainfall recently. There will be a good bit of shear for storms to work with (bulk shear values of 45 to 55kts) along with a good amount of instability (1500-3500 J/km MLCAPE) although exact values vary between models. Keep an eye on the forecast as we become more certain on timing and location of storms. Tuesday has a Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for isolated severe storms, again during the evening. This will be concentrated mainly around and south of I-90. MLCAPE values are forecast to be around 1000-1500 J/kg with 35-45 kts of bulk shear and lapse rates around 8 C/km. The main threats with these storms look to be large hail of an inch in diameter and wind gusts of 60 mph. A Heat Advisory will be in effect from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT for portions of south central SD with heat index values as high as 104 F. Take precautions if you plan to spend time outside this afternoon. The long term will feature below average temperatures and practically daily shower/storm chances as we continue our active pattern. Today and Tuesday will also have elevated smoke from western fires. Near surface smoke will be possible with the incoming cooler air. The HRRR Smoke model is starting to show that move south and closer to the area, however, it does not go out long enough to show it actually reaching the area. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 624 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Overall thunderstorm threat looks to be over across central SD for TAF sites KMBG and KPIR. Showers and thunderstorms continue mainly along and east of the James River Valley through late this evening. Overall VFR cigs forecasted through the TAF period with lowered cigs with any stronger storm and heavier rains this evening. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && UPDATE...MMM DISCUSSION...13 AVIATION...MMM
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 223 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 MNZ046-SDZ006-008-011-017>023-291930- Big Stone-Brown-Roberts-Day-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-Hamlin- Deuel- 223 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota, north central South Dakota and northeast South Dakota. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. There is an enhanced risk, level 3 out of 5, with numerous severe storms possible late this afternoon into this evening. Winds in excess of 80 mph, tornadoes, and hail 2 inches in diameter will all be possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed. Weather spotters are encouraged to submit reports to the National Weather Service in Aberdeen. The public can submit reports on our web page, Facebook page, or our X feed. MNZ039-SDZ003>005-007-009-010-015-016-034-291930- Traverse-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Marshall-Walworth-Edmunds-Dewey- Potter-Sully- 223 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 /123 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota, central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast South Dakota. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. There is an enhanced risk, level 3 out of 5, with numerous severe storms possible late this afternoon and evening. Winds in excess of 70 mph, tornadoes, and hail 2 inches in diameter will all be possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed. Weather spotters are encouraged to submit reports to the National Weather Service in Aberdeen. The public can submit reports on our web page, Facebook page, or our X feed. SDZ033-035>037-045-048-051-291930- Stanley-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo- 223 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 /123 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central South Dakota. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Numerous severe storms possible late this afternoon and evening. Winds in excess of 70 mph, tornadoes, and hail 2 inches in diameter will all be possible. A Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM CDT for heat index values reaching to 105 degrees F. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. There is a marginal risk (level 1/5) for portions of south central SD Tuesday evening into Tuesday night with the main threats including quarter sized hail and wind gusts of 60 mph. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed. Weather spotters are encouraged to submit reports to the National Weather Service in Aberdeen. The public can submit reports on our web page, Facebook page, or our X feed.
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
647 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0609 PM Hail 1 S Northville 45.14N 98.58W
07/28/2025 E1.75 Inch Spink SD Public
&&
TMTPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
650 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0639 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 1 WNW Summit 45.31N 97.05W
07/28/2025 M68 MPH Roberts SD Mesonet
Mesonet station 55 Summit (SDDOT).
&&
SDPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
653 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0644 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 1 WNW Summit 45.31N 97.05W
07/28/2025 M77 MPH Roberts SD Mesonet
Mesonet station 55 Summit (SDDOT).
&&
SDPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
703 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0619 PM Hail Mellette 45.15N 98.50W
07/28/2025 E1.00 Inch Spink SD Public
Report from social media.
&&
SDPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
706 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0603 PM Hail 2 E Chelsea 45.17N 98.70W
07/28/2025 M1.75 Inch Spink SD Public
2 miles east of Chelsea on the south side of
the SD Hwy 20 received crop damage.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
709 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0650 PM Hail 3 WSW Lower Brule 44.05N 99.64W
07/28/2025 E1.75 Inch Lyman SD Trained Spotter
&&
TMTThe Aberdeen radar (KABR), 157 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:12 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Automated Weather Observation System near Ortonville measured peak wind gusts of 60 mph.
The Minnesota Department of Transportation Road Weather Information System near Odessa measured peak wind gusts of 60 mph.
Heavy rainfall resulted in the flooding of fields and ditches in and around the town of Johnson.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1282530, 1282531, 1282557.