A thunderstorm moving through southern Lake Huron produced a wind gust in excess of 35 knots.
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The episode as NWS DTX wrote it up.
A thunderstorm moving through southern Lake Huron produced a wind gust in excess of 35 knots.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 4, 1:25 PM EST, 35 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI Issued by National Weather Service Gaylord MI 225 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025 .AVIATION... Front stretches from central IL to just north of KAZO to just north of FNT. SHRA moving NW to SE along and behind this boundary, cloud bases generally MVFR along the front, dropping to IFR behind (bases 800-1500ft). Expect TSRA to pop up this afternoon in the vc of Metro Detroit from YIP to PTK to DET, including DTW...and possibly FNT. Not expecting much beside rain at MBS. Afternoon showers/ts will be followed by additional rain this evening; conditions to largely drop to IFR overnight under this...non-zero ts threat but not as favored as this afternoon. Slow improvements toward afternoon from NW to SE. Winds through tonight diminishing to around 5kts, generally N to NE behind the front; lingering 15-25kt gusts near DTW/DET/YIP till this evening. NE winds expected Thursday around 10kts. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued by National Weather Service Gaylord MI KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy and increasingly humid today. Cooler north and warmer south. - Shower chances across the Tri Cities area yield thunderstorm development largely along and south of I-69 this afternoon. Potential for severe weather and localized torrential rainfall. - Slowly drying out from north to south tonight into Thursday, with lingering shower potential south into Friday. DISCUSSION... Cold frontal intrusion well underway upstream, with embedded mesolow processes ongoing across northern Lake Michigan, driving rounds of stratiform rain across Grand Traverse Bay, with tailing precipitation stretching south and west along the cold frontal boundary through the western Corn Belt into the southern Plains. Expecting this frontal boundary to continue passing through the region throughout the day today, as a noticeably more humid airmass makes its presence know across the board... with surface dewpoints ballooning well into the 60s. Lack of instability initially brings about more of a stratiform rain regime, first intruding into the Tri Cities this morning, eventually sagging southward into the I-69 corridor around midday. Some lingering low level jet driven influences may drive some heavier showers early this morning across the Tri Cities, with some localized totals of 0.50"+ certainly on the table, though much of this rain likely remains lighter. Certainly quite the temperature contrast across southeast Michigan into the Bay area this afternoon... thicker clouds and the progressing front will lead to temps in the 70s north, and most spots along / south of I-69 should warm anywhere from 80 to 86 degrees amid that continued southwesterly flow (some 25+ mph gusts again possible today). The warmer temperatures across the southern part of the CWA will set the stage for afternoon thunderstorm development as moisture intrusion allows for instability to materialize, which could bring about a marginal, yet, rather complex severe storm and heavy rain risk. Ahead of the progressing area of showers, instability balloons to 750 to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Couple this with bulk shear pushing 45kts courtesy of ample speed shear throughout the profile, and the recipe is there for strong to even severe storms after 17z, mainly south and east of a Fowlerville to Port Sanilac line. Considering shear vectors are parallel to the boundary, this screams more of a damaging wind threat at first (hail is less likely but still possible), and with this amount of shear, certainly gives potential for any storms that initiate to quickly grow upscale and become outflow dominant (perhaps leading to a bow echo or two materializing as storms exit to the ENE into Canada, which could lead to a more potent wind threat)... and any stronger updrafts that materialize in the wake of these initial storms will need to be watched as saturation lowers cloud bases, which could bring a closet tornado threat if outflow boundaries start laying all over the place... though confidence in this particular scenario remains very low at this time. Additional concerns arise with the potential for the aforementioned training storms to materialize. PWATs exceeding 1.50, could certainly produce some impressive rain totals in places, which could prove problematic in the event that this occurs in the immediate Metro Detroit area (urban areas drain poorly). So after all that... it should be noted that there is some uncertainty with this setup... though wind fields are favorable for severe storms and heavy rain, it all depends on the instability materializing, and being able to break through the cap this afternoon. Most CAMs are on board with this scenario, but for now, the Day 1 Severe Storm and Excessive Rainfall outlooks carry a Marginal Risk across southeast Michigan. Thunderstorm concentration will begin to be suppressed southward toward Ohio with time through the evening, with some lingering stratiform rain anticipated through the night, especially along and south of I-69. The front looks to stall out across northern Ohio late tonight into Thursday, which will prolong the potential for rain showers, largely south of I-96 / I-696, as another wave rides along the frontal boundary. Most of this activity should taper later into the day, yielding a drier evening. Temps on Thursday will be a little backwards from the usual status quo... sunnier skies near Saginaw Bay should promote highs well into the 70s, while clouds and showers may stunt areas south of I-69 into the mid-to-upper 60s. The lack of progression made by the front into Friday will yield another shower chance, particularly along and south of I-94. When all is said and done, some areas may see quite impressive rain totals, with some guidance trying to paint totals well in excess of 2.50" across Lenawee and Monroe counties by Friday. Surface high pressure builds for Saturday, returning drier conditions to the region. The next rain chances after this look to be later Sunday into Monday, as another cold front passes through the area... coupled with potential for an upper level low to dig into the Great Lakes region next week, which may set off another run of unsettled weather. MARINE... Cold frontal passage set to commence through the day today, with shower coverage increasing from north to south on Lake Huron, reaching the Saginaw Bay through this morning. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at times across southern Lake Huron this afternoon, spreading southward toward Lake St. Clair and into Lake Erie this evening. SW winds ahead of this cold frontal boundary will remain elevated, sustained 10 to 15kts, with some 25+ kt gusts. As such, Small Craft Advisories have been extended for the Saginaw Bay and Lake Huron nearshores, with an expansion into Lake St. Clair and the Lake Erie nearshore waters of Michigan. In the wake of the front, winds will flip northerly and turn lighter with time as we progress into Thursday, with continued shower potential across Lake St. Clair and points southward. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ441>443. Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LCZ460. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ444. && AVIATION.....FEF DISCUSSION...HAD MARINE.......HAD You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI Issued by National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1101 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025 MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-051100- Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer- St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe- 1101 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025 This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop by early afternoon and continue into this evening. Some of the stronger storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts. The greatest threat for severe storms is expected between 100 PM and 900 PM. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible along and south of the I-69 corridor. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be necessary through early evening. LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-051100- Lake St Clair- Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI- Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore- Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore- Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore- Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI- Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI- Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI- Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore- Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore- Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore- 1101 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake Huron and Lake St Clair. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening south of Port Austin may produce gusty winds. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight. You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit. JPB
The Detroit radar (KDTX), 92 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:58 UTC.
1 marine thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Lake Huron in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather history
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1268117.