Hail and Damaging Wind in Texas, June 4, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
645 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Widespread thunderstorms are expected across much of the area
   tonight. Some storms could become strong to severe, with large
   hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain/localized flooding being
   the main threats.

 - Severe thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon.

 - Severe thunderstorm chances remain forecast each afternoon from
   Friday through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Skies continue to clear this afternoon with daytime heating, however
convection is generally not expected during the remaining daytime
hours as morning cloud cover has kept the atmosphere relatively
stable behind a cold front. Low-level flow will increase out of the
SE this evening, allowing for very favorable moisture advection
north of a lifting warm front. PWATs are currently in the 1-1.5"
range. All models continue to indicate an overnight MCS arriving in
the far SW Panhandle around midnight and shifting southeastward
thereafter. Widespread thunderstorm chances exist for the entire
forecast area, with heavy rain/flash flooding being the main threat
in possible training storms. Other severe parameters will as well be
in play including large hail and damaging winds.

Thursday's forecast remains tricky. Steering flow slightly decreases
through the morning hours and most models show the MCS lingering
over at least the southern Rolling Plains all the way into the
afternoon. Like today, the associated low cloud cover will inhibit
additional convective development immediately in its wake. Highs
will only reach the upper 70s to low 80s. That said, an upper wave
combined with a relatively strong LLJ will occur over western and
southern portions of the area during the afternoon/evening hours.
Significant SBCAPE approaching 2500 J/kg and sharply veering low-
level winds are seen in some forecast soundings. The environment will
continue to be extremely moist, with dewpoints potentially
approaching 70. While there is still quite a bit of uncertainty, any
storms that do occur have the potential for large hail, damaging
winds, and tornadoes. Stay tuned for further updates.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Fairly active weather continues to be expected in the long term. If
any storms develop tomorrow afternoon, they should be out of the FA
by midnight. A weak front is still expected to push southward by
Friday afternoon and could be the focus for additional storm
development late Friday into early Saturday. Upper flow should
become more zonal during this time as the upper high over much of
southern Texas and Mexico amplifies eastward and westward while an
upper shortwave trough digs across the Central and Northern Plains.
A period of quiet weather is possible this weekend after the upper
shortwave across the Plains pushes eastward. Active weather is
possible once again early next week as the upper high retrogrades
and a blocking patter develops once again over the West Coast. This
will put the FA under northwesterly upper flow while an upper low
moving from central Canada into the Great Lakes pushes another cold
front southward with the front becoming the focus once again for
convective development. While storms will have the potential to
become severe each day that storms are forecast, the primary threat
at this time will be severe wind gusts and, to a lesser extent,
large hail.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Low confidence forecast this evening with potential for multiple
rounds of convection overnight through Thursday morning. Currently,
VFR is expected to continue at all sites through late this evening,
with MVFR CIGs overspreading the entire region during the pre-dawn
hours. A complex of TS over east-central New Mexico at 23z will
likely cross the state line and enter the TX Panhandle near
sunset, but uncertainty is high on whether TS will impact any TAF
sites overnight. At this time, likelihood in convective impacts is
highest at KPVW, so will carry a PROB30 there with probability
too low to include thunder mention at KLBB and KCDS tonight. There
is higher confidence that TSRA will re-develop before sunrise and
affect KLBB and KPVW through much of the morning hours, possibly
also reaching KCDS by midday. Given the expectation that TSRA will
likely be fairly widespread, will carry a prevailing thunder
mention at both KLBB and KPVW through most of the morning with
refinements in timing likely in later issuances. After morning
convection exits to the east, VFR is likely to return to all sites
on Thursday afternoon before additional TS are possible just
beyond the end of this TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1132 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

TXZ021>044-060445-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1132 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely late this evening especially across the far
southwestern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains. Additional
thunderstorms are then expected to develop across much of the rest
of the South Plains and Rolling Plains overnight through early
Thursday morning. Some severe storms are possible, with primary
hazards of large hail up to the size of golf balls and wind gusts up
to 60 mph. Heavy rainfall may also result in localized flash
flooding.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for the far southwestern
Texas Panhandle until 1 AM tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Caprock
and Rolling Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. Storms that do
form Thursday afternoon will be capable of producing extremely large
hail in excess of baseball size, damaging winds near 70 mph, and
tornadoes. Storms will also produce heavy rainfall, resulting in the
potential for flash flooding.

Severe thunderstorm chances return each afternoon and evening Friday
through early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.