A negatively-tilted upper-level trough extended from the northern Great Plains down into the lower Ohio Valley on May 20th, bringing a strong cold front through the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Showers and storms moved across the region along a warm front during the morning hours, limiting heating somewhat; however, a break in the precipitation during the early-to-mid afternoon hours…
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LMK wrote it up.
A negatively-tilted upper-level trough extended from the northern Great Plains down into the lower Ohio Valley on May 20th, bringing a strong cold front through the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Showers and storms moved across the region along a warm front during the morning hours, limiting heating somewhat; however, a break in the precipitation during the early-to-mid afternoon hours allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 70s and low 80s with dewpoint temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s. This lead to the development of around 2500 J/kg surface-based CAPE, which was combined with 50-55 knots of effective bulk shear to create an environment which was supportive of strong, organized convection.
The main wave of strong to severe storms with this event developed over the mid-Mississippi Valley during the mid-afternoon hours before moving into western and central Kentucky during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Storms evolved into a messy mixture of leading discrete cells and a trailing line which ultimately absorbed the lead cells as it moved quickly to the east-northeast. Downdraft CAPE values of 1100-1300 J/kg supported strong winds from collapsing thunderstorm cores making it to the surface, and a combination of downburst winds and strong winds from bowing segments within the line of storms resulted in scattered wind damage, mainly across south central Kentucky. Although storm motion was relatively fast, multiple areas of heavy rainfall moving over the same areas did result in isolated instances of flash flooding..
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 20, 1:22 PM EST, 12 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
Issued by National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
222 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025
.Key Messages...
* Strong to severe storms are possible today into the evening hours.
* Damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and large hail are possible.
Isolated instances of heavy rainfall and flash flooding may also
develop.
* Well below normal temperatures are expected late week into the
first part of Memorial Day weekend.
* Continuing to monitor a low pressure system early next week that
could bring another round of strong storms.
&&
.Short Term...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025
A deep, negatively tilted troughing from SW Canada is building
over the southern Ohio Valley today. This will send a modest mid-
level jet, placing central and eastern Kentucky in the left exit
region. In the lower levels, a 35-45kt LLJ will move over central
Kentucky today, helping to increase LLJ shear. At the surface, a
low pressure center is moving over Iowa and northern Illinois,
with a warm front located over the I-64 corridor. Looking at the
KY Mesonet, there is a clear distinction of the warm front in the
temperature and dew point values. Areas below south of the warm
front are currently in the mid-upper 70s, with some spots brushing
80, and dew points in the low 70s. Areas north of the warm front
are seeing upper 60s temperatures and dew points in the low 60s.
Temperatures will continue to rise as we continue into the
afternoon and the LLJ will continue to pump in ample moisture.
With ample moisture over the region, PWATs are in the 1.75-1.9
range, with some spots near 2.0 inches.
The first round of severe weather is beginning to intensify over
central Kentucky. There is currently 1200-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE over
the region allowing for storms to intensify as they continue to
move east. 40-50kts of deep layer shear will allow for some storms
to become organized and severe. Could see a mix of storm modes,
some discrete supercell, multicells, and then some cells growing
upscale into more of a line. As storms move along the warm front,
this will be the area of greatest concern for the first wave for
mostly damaging winds and spin-up tornadoes.
After the first wave, we will see a 3-4 hour break before the
next wave begins to move through. This will be enough of a break
for the environment to recover, bringing in near 2000 J/kg of
SBCAPE over southern and central Kentucky and a similar shear
structure as the first wave. Will likely see another mix of storm
modes with the later wave. Main hazards are damaging winds,
tornadoes, and hail.
Additionally, with multiple rounds of storms and ample moisture,
flash flooding may become a concern. QPF is currently forecasted
between 1-2 inches, with locally higher amounts possible with
training storms.
Storms will be through the area just within a few hours of
sunset, leaving just some isolated showers over southern Indiana
and northern Kentucky for a few hours into the overnight. The cold
front of the low pressure system will push west to east through
the region, helping to bring cooler than normal temperatures for
Wednesday. The upper troughing is slower to depart, which will
keep some isolated showers over the northern half of the region.
&&
.Long Term...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025
A closed upper low will likely form over the Great Lakes, keeping
the lower Ohio Valley under troughing through Friday morning.
This will keep temperatures unseasonably cool on Thursday as well.
The upper low will move off to the northeast Friday, bringing a
drier stretch through the weekend. Temperatures will warm
slightly, but remain slightly cooler than normal.
Continuing to monitor early next week, as an upper low and
surface low may develop over the central Plains. It would likely
track northeast through the Ohio Valley, placing the lower Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys in the warm sector of this system. This
could bring strong storms to the lower Ohio Valley early next
week. A similar set up to the severe weather threat ongoing today.
&&
.Aviation...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025
Impacts:
- MVFR ceilings at times, IFR possible.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some severe, expected
today.
- MVFR, or lower, possible during rain and storms
- Winds become westerly on Wednesday and increase with gusts
between 25 and 30 kt at times
Discussion:
Surface low pressure currently sits over western Illinois and is
leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Ohio River
Valley and Kentucky. Additionally, a warm front is lifting north
with MVFR to IFR ceilings ahead of it. A wind shift from ESE to
SSW is anticipated with frontal passage.
A round of heavy rain and storms is passing through LEX and RGA
as of 2pm. Further west, shower activity has largely diminished.
Quiet conditions will not last long, with additional showers and
storms expected to develop this afternoon and evening. Some of
these may be strong to severe with MVFR or lower conditions
possible.
Guidance suggests that most of the shower/storm activity will be
done by 04z, but perhaps as late as 08z. Regardless, all terminals
are expected to be dry by 12z.
As the surface low passes to the northeast, winds turn westerly
and increase to between 10-20 knots gusting to 25-30 knots
Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ026>028-039>042-045>049-
053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...None.
&&
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM....SW
AVIATION...ME/INDHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Louisville KY Issued by National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 330 AM EDT Tue May 20 2025 INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067- 070>078-081-082-210730- Orange-Washington IN-Scott IN-Jefferson IN-Dubois-Crawford-Perry- Harrison IN-Floyd-Clark IN-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio- Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby- Franklin-Scott KY-Harrison KY-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette- Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Washington KY-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark KY- Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green- Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe- Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton- 330 AM EDT Tue May 20 2025 /230 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Indiana, south central Indiana, east central Kentucky, north central Kentucky, northwest Kentucky, and south central Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Rounds of Thunderstorms are expected today and this evening. Strong and Severe storms will be possible. The main threats today are: Damaging Straight line winds Large Hail Heavy Rainfall Isolated tornadoes Lightning is a threat with any thunderstorm. Stay weather aware today for severe weather watches and warnings. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Isolated Thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday and Thursday, and again this weekend. Severe storms are not expected at this time. Lightning is a threat with any thunderstorm. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be required Today. GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY: Storms later today will move from west to east at 15 to 20 mph. Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm activity can be erratic and constantly evolving. Please use this with caution and be prepared for changing conditions. JP
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
Issued by National Weather Service Paducah KY
204 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025
KYZ055-056-067-201830-
Boyle KY-Lincoln KY-Garrard KY-
204 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LINCOLN...SOUTHEASTERN GARRARD
AND SOUTHEASTERN BOYLE COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...
At 204 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Stanford, or 17 miles west of Mount Vernon, moving east at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Stanford, Lancaster, Junction City, Crab Orchard, Boneyville,
Ottenheim, Gilbert, Broughtentown, Geneva, Rowland, Hackley, Maywood,
Stuart Powell Field Airport, Point Leavell, Mckinney, Hubble,
Highland, South Fork, Kings Mountain, and Jumbo.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for central
Kentucky.
&&
LAT...LON 3748 8445 3738 8449 3736 8473 3737 8475
3759 8480 3768 8446 3748 8440
TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 268DEG 38KT 3746 8464
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
SPSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
Issued by National Weather Service Paducah KY
222 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025
KYZ048-049-056-057-201900-
Jessamine KY-Clark KY-Madison KY-Garrard KY-
222 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN GARRARD...SOUTHEASTERN
CLARK...SOUTHEASTERN JESSAMINE AND MADISON COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM
EDT...
At 222 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles southeast of Nicholasville to 6 miles
east of Lancaster to 7 miles north of Gum Sulphur. Movement was
northeast at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Richmond, Harris Ferry, Berea, Peytontown, Jackson Ferry, Panola,
Buggytown, Hunt, Buckeye, Pollard, Teatersville, Cotton Branch,
Trapp, Log Lick, Combs, Doylesville, Terrill, Dreyfus, Reeds
Crossing, and Rabbit Town.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for central
Kentucky.
&&
LAT...LON 3787 8403 3783 8400 3785 8406 3782 8407
3785 8408 3782 8412 3781 8408 3778 8411
3777 8408 3767 8409 3765 8413 3757 8409
3752 8426 3754 8435 3749 8436 3748 8441
3749 8445 3780 8456 3796 8404 3789 8399
TIME...MOT...LOC 1822Z 241DEG 36KT 3778 8449 3764 8446 3754 8446
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
SPThe Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 88 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:32 UTC.
25 thunderstorm wind, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was blown down into a light pole on Plaza Drive near Prince Royal Drive in Berea.
Trees were blown down north of Adairville.
A roof was blown off of a barn, and a few trees and power poles were brought down in the Oakville community.
A tree was blown down near the intersection of Matlock Road and Rich Pond Road.
Trees and power lines were downed on Provo Road by thunderstorm winds.
A tree was blown down across McKendree Chapel Road north of Morgantown.
A tree was blown down in Caneyville.
A tree was blown down at the intersection of Decker Road and Peonia Road.
A tree was blown down across Caneyville Road north of Morgantown.
A tree was blown down across the roadway on Caney Fork Road in extreme southern Butler County.
A tree was blown down onto the southbound lanes of Interstate 165 near mile marker 23.
A tree was blown down across the road near the 1600 block of Threlkel Road.
A couple trees were blown down in Barren County northeast of Glasgow.
A tree was blown down across Anneta Road.
A tree was blown down across Austin Tracy Road between Tracy and the Monroe County line.
Meader-Port Oliver Road was impassable due to flowing water over the roadway.
A tree was down blocking the roadway near the intersection of Roseville Road and Cooktown Road.
A tree was blown down in Upton on the LaRue County side.
A tree was blown down, blocking one lane of Preachersville Road.
Multiple trees were blown down along Kentucky Route 39 in eastern Lincoln county and southwestern Garrard County.
Trees were blown down across Crab Orchard Road near Gilberts Creek Baptist Church.
A tree was blown down at the intersection of Kentucky Route 643 and Kentucky Route 1781.
A tree was blown down on Old Fall Lick Road.
A tree was blown down along Harmons Lick Road near the 3200 block.
A tree was blown down on Richmond Road near the Madison and Garrard County line.
A tree was blown down near the entrance to Battlefield Golf Course.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1267511, 1267513, 1267516, 1267518, 1267520, 1267522, 1267523, 1267526, 1267528, 1267529, 1267530, 1267531, 1267533, 1267534, 1267535, 1267538, 1267539, 1267541, 1267542, 1267544, 1267546, 1267547, 1267551, 1267548, 1267553, 1267555.