A squall line pushed eastward overnight across the warm sector of a low pressure system in Iowa. A surging portion of the line produced wind damage in portions of Southern Illinois, including the formation of a brief tornado in eastern Union County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A squall line pushed eastward overnight across the warm sector of a low pressure system in Iowa. A surging portion of the line produced wind damage in portions of Southern Illinois, including the formation of a brief tornado in eastern Union County. MLCAPE was around 1000-1500J/kg, effective bulk shear was 40-50kts, and 0-3km SRH was 200-300m2/s2, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 19, 11:38 PM CST, 33 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1238 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms are possible tonight across portions of the area. Storms should weaken as they move east. All hazards are possible. - Strong to severe storms are possible again tomorrow afternoon and evening across portions of the area. All hazards are possible. - Cooler temperatures for mid to late week with drier conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Aloft there is a digging trof across the Rockies with a leading closed low over the northern Plains with a secondary embedded trof over Utah moving towards the Four Corners region. Across our area we have a warm front lifting north today and even though we have warm air advection in place, we should stay mainly dry this afternoon and evening. Later today out west storms will develop and grow into one or more linear segments, particularly over eastern KS, eastern OK, and western MO. Models have these storms moving east and will eventually move into SEMO around midnight. As this line moves east storms should weaken, particularly as they cross the Mississippi River. However in SEMO there will still be around 1,500-2,500 J/kg of SBCAPE, mid level lapse rates are initially 6.5-7 degC/km but they quickly fall off after 06Z, 50-60 kts of bulk shear, and upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints. Given these conditions, all severe hazards are possible: large hail, damaging winds, and possibly an isolated tornado (possibly embedded in the line). What transpires tomorrow in regards to storms and severe threat is very conditional upon what happens tonight into tomorrow morning, how we recover tomorrow, and what remaining outflow boundaries are around the area. Right now, most of the models currently support clearing behind the line that moves through tonight and early tomorrow, and so we may see a dry period tomorrow morning. This would allow us to destabilize and set the scene for round two tomorrow afternoon. Strengthening mid level and upper level flow with help initiate convection along with the trof aloft and at the sfc passing through. Around 18Z tomorrow we have 1,500-3,000 J/kg of SBCAPE, mid level lapse rates don't look quite as steep, but low level 0-3km lapse rates are much better, around 7.5 degC/km, and 50- 60 kts of bulk shear. Once again all severe hazards will be possible: large hail, damaging winds, and possibly stronger tornadoes (there is a 10% hatched area across the KY Purchase and Pennyrile regions). Due to multiple rounds of convection there could be some localized flash flooding concerns. All told, 1-3 inches of rain is possible with lower amounts down south and higher amounts up north in southern IL. The front will be through the area by Tuesday night with cooler temperatures for mid to late week. There could be a brief shower or two Wednesday night as we sit in cyclonic flow on the southwest edge of a trof aloft. Rain chances then return for the weekend thanks to some localized disturbances. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1232 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 A cluster of showers and thunderstorms are moving through the region this morning. SHRA and embedded TSRA will be possible for the terminals with reductions in cigs and visby. Expecting a lull in activity later this morning before additional scattered SHRA/TSRA develops by the afternoon with the threat of severe storms a possibility. This activity will be east of EVV/OWB by 00z with clearing expected afterwards. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY AVIATION...AD
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 302 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-201200- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 302 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 /402 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Higher coverage of thunderstorms are expected tonight with some storms becoming strong to severe. Large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado are the main hazards tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Thunderstorms are again expected on Tuesday with severe storms likely. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes remain possible with any severe storms. While the greater threat of severe weather is in western Kentucky, the entire area is under a risk for severe weather. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed tonight and again on Tuesday.
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service PADUCAH KY 1153 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 MOZ076-086-087-100-107>110-200600- Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-Ripley-Butler- Stoddard- Including the cities of Perryville, Marble Hill, Cape Girardeau, Jackson, Piedmont, Van Buren, Doniphan, Poplar Bluff, and Bloomfield 1153 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 ...Risk for a few severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes... A broken line of storms is moving steadily east across southeast Missouri. As of 1151 pm the strongest cells are north of Sam Baker State Park moving northeast. Thunderstorms across Carter, Ripley and Wayne are of moderate intensity and do not look to be bringing down the strongest wind potential. The highest risk for severe wind or an isolated tornado through 1 am looks to bve acdross parts of northern Bollinger, Cape Girardeau and Perry Counties in Missouri - although it can't be completely ruled out anywhere along this line. Continue to monitor for updates and possible warnings. JGG
The Paducah radar (KPAH), 89 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 06:08 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind, 1 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
Multiple power poles were broken on Grand Tower Rd.
A tree was blown down onto a car in Herrin.
An EF1 tornado touched down along Hwy 146 approximately 6.5 miles northeast of Dongola. It uprooted and snapped several trees along with causing some minor shingle and siding damage to a few homes. Peak winds were 100 mph and max width was 50 yards along its approximately 2 mile long path as it tracked to the east-northeast before lifting just before reaching Mount Pleasant.
Following the lifting of a tornado just west of Mount Pleasant, straight line wind damage uprooted a tree on Woods Rd and brought down tree branches further east.
Straight line wind damage occurred to several trees along Pleasant Grove Rd southwest of Buncombe, following the lifting of a tornado, including trees that snapped or were uprooted.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Illinois, 2025Warnings in Illinois, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1272590, 1272611, 1272625, 1272627, 1272617.