A morning frontal boundary on the northern edge of the Quad State lifted a little northward during the day on the 15th. A 40-50kt jet out of the WSW continued into the Quad State, bringing enough Gulf moisture to keep PWATs over 2 inches.
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The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A morning frontal boundary on the northern edge of the Quad State lifted a little northward during the day on the 15th. A 40-50kt jet out of the WSW continued into the Quad State, bringing enough Gulf moisture to keep PWATs over 2 inches. MLCAPE values reached 2000-2500J/kg, while effective bulk shear remained limited. In Western Kentucky, scattered showers and thunderstorms occurred through the day. A large tree in Murray had large sections blown over due to straight-line winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 15, 5:57 PM CST, 34 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 657 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Daily chances for scattered showers and storms continue through the weekend into next week. Strongest storms pose an isolated threat for damaging winds. Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding is possible. - Heat indices will climb over 100 degrees tomorrow through the weekend. Some days may exceed Heat Advisory criteria. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 303 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 There is very little change to the ongoing forecast this cycle with a generally weak pattern aloft that features a weak shortwave trof over the Plains and a weak 40 ish knot jet over our region. This coupled with juicy Gulf moisture, giving us PWATs around 2.1 to 2.2 makes for some scattered afternoon showers and storms that sport locally heavy rainfall that could cause localized flash flooding. Wednesday will be very similar to today as the shortwave trof moves northeast and gets reabsorbed into the flow over the Great Lakes. Behind it is another shortwave trof over the Northern Plains that's pulling a front through that should stay just north of our area by Thursday. With mid to upper 70s dew points starting tomorrow, heat indices will surpass 100 and could near Heat Advisory criteria, particularly on Thursday, but possible through the weekend. Daily chances for scattered showers and storms remain possible in the afternoons through the weekend and into early next week as the pattern aloft stays rather stagnant. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 SHRA/TSRA will continue over the next couple of hours with visby and ceiling restrictions possible in/near TS. Otherwise mid to high level clouds are expected overnight. Patchy fog is possible but no mention at the terminals this forecast cycle. Brief potential for MVFR cigs at MVN tonight but should see recovery back to VFR by 12Z. There may be isolated convection on Wednesday but at this time coverage is low enough to keep mention out of the TAFs for now. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && DISCUSSION...HICKFORD AVIATION...AD
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 322 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-161200- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 322 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 /422 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected into early this evening. A storm or two may briefly become strong to severe with gusty to damaging winds the main threat. Torrential rainfall will accompany any storms and flash flooding may develop where any storms persist. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected each afternoon through Monday. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible and all storms will be capable of brief torrential rainfall. Afternoon heat indices will climb into the 100 to 105 degree range throughout the Quad State Wednesday through Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service PADUCAH KY 256 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>087-KYZ001>007-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-160000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- Including the cities of Mount Vernon, Fairfield, Albion, Mount Carmel, Pinckneyville, West Frankfort, McLeansboro, Carmi, Carbondale, Murphysboro, Herrin, Harrisburg, Shawneetown, Jonesboro, Vienna, Golconda, Elizabethtown, Cairo, Mound City, Metropolis, Fort Branch, Petersburg, Poseyville, Evansville, Boonville, Hickman, Clinton, Bardwell, Wickliffe, Paducah, Mayfield, Smithland, Perryville, Marble Hill, Cape Girardeau, Jackson, Piedmont, Van Buren, Doniphan, Poplar Bluff, Bloomfield, Sikeston, Charleston, and New Madrid 256 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 /356 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Funnel clouds will be possible this afternoon... There have been reports of several funnel clouds across the area this afternoon. These funnels are developing underneath a few showers and storms. Underneath these showers and storms...spinning columns of air that look like tornadoes may continue to develop. The funnels are usually very brief and weak due to the lack of wind shear. It is also very rare that the funnels touch the ground. If these funnels do touch down...they most likely will not cause damage to life or property.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
444 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025
KYZ002-003-MOZ112-114-152245-
Carlisle KY-Hickman KY-New Madrid MO-Mississippi MO-
444 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CARLISLE...NORTHERN HICKMAN...
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL NEW MADRID COUNTIES THROUGH 545
PM CDT...
At 444 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Big Oak Tree State Park, moving northeast at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
East Prairie, Clinton, Bardwell, Towosahgy State Historic Site, Big
Oak Tree State Park, Arlington, and Columbus.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3671 8949 3695 8910 3692 8908 3692 8906
3693 8907 3694 8906 3693 8905 3692 8899
3695 8887 3695 8881 3669 8882 3665 8914
3665 8917 3664 8919 3662 8932 3663 8935
3661 8938
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 236DEG 36KT 3670 8931
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
RSTThe Paducah radar (KPAH), 66 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:33 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Large portions of a large tree were downed by straight-line thunderstorm winds, with one section falling onto power lines on 6th St in Murray.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1292166.