Winter Weather in Kentucky, February 16, 2025

Name: Winter Weather in Kentucky, February 16, 2025
Start: 2025-02-16T02:00
End: 2025-02-16T07:00
Location: Kentucky

February 16, 2025 · NWS PAH · 18 events in 18 counties and zones

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 18 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 18

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.

Following a major flash flood event on the 15th, bands of moderate to heavy snow developed behind a cold front associated with low pressure during the early morning hours of the 16th. A quick burst of snow led to 1 to 3 inches of snow across portions of western Kentucky with poor visibility below 1 mile. Temperatures plunged to around 30 degrees due to wind gusts between 25-35 mph, causing slick road conditions with snow accumulating on all surfaces. Key Impacts: transportation delays.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 15, 11:42 PM CST, 2 hours 18 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

A major, potentially historic, flash flood event is ongoing this afternoon across portions west Kentucky and southwest Indiana and adjacent parts of southern Illinois and southeast Missouri.
A few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and into the evening. Some of these may become strong to severe along the Kentucky-Tennessee border. Damaging wind gusts and possibly a brief tornado or two are the main threats.
A brief change over to snow is possible overnight as colder air filters in. Light snow accumulation's are possible.
Accumulating snowfall is becoming increasingly likely Tuesday into Wednesday with travel impacts possible.
Dangerous, bitter cold is forecast for most of next week. Low temperatures in the single digits and subzero wind chills are forecast the latter half of next week.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 15, 11:42 PM CST, 2 hours 18 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
Issued by National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1142 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A major, potentially historic, flash flood event is ongoing
  this afternoon across portions west Kentucky and southwest
  Indiana and adjacent parts of southern Illinois and southeast
  Missouri.

- A few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and into the
  evening. Some of these may become strong to severe along the
  Kentucky-Tennessee border. Damaging wind gusts and possibly a
  brief tornado or two are the main threats.

- A brief change over to snow is possible overnight as colder
  air filters in. Light snow accumulation's are possible.

- Accumulating snowfall is becoming increasingly likely Tuesday
  into Wednesday with travel impacts possible.

- Dangerous, bitter cold is forecast for most of next week. Low
  temperatures in the single digits and subzero wind chills are
  forecast the latter half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

A major flash flood event is ongoing this afternoon. Regional
radar shows widespread rain moving west to east through the
region. Cooler cloud tops and lightning have developed to the
south which will only exacerbate ongoing flooding issues with
heavier rain rates at times. Several flash flood warnings are
currently in effect across western Kentucky where radar and
gage estimates of 2-4 inches (locally higher) of rain has
already fallen. Given the increasing convective nature of these
rain showers, conditions are only expected to worsen over the
afternoon and evening. We continue to highlight this as a
dangerous and major/potentially historic flash flood event.

The threat remains for strong to severe storms this afternoon.
This all comes down to whether we see any updrafts becoming
surface based. Some hi-res sources suggest this may occur but
the window looks small and only confined to the far southeast
corner of our forecast area from roughly Calloway to Todd
counties in Kentucky. If we do see surface-based instability, a
few mesovorticies may develop with in the main squall line, with
a locally enhanced straight-line wind and spin-up tornado risk.

A cold front will move through the region tonight bringing a
blast of Arctic air for tonight and sets the stage for a week
long period of much colder weather. Upper level ascent still
looks pretty strong overnight as a band of snow showers moves
across the region. Some of this snow may be heavy at times as
there is a very short window of time where the moisture and
lift align well in the DGZ. We could see a dusting to 1 inch of
snow overnight along with the possibility of moisture on
roadways freezing.

Confidence continues to further increase that a period of
accumulating snow will impact the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday. The trend with the NBM and ensembles solutions has
been increasing as we get closer to this event. NBM probability of
greater than 2 inches of snow is now 70-90% and 50-70% chance
of 4 inches or more. Still plenty of time for changes but
confidence is only increasing that impactful heavy snow will
arrive Tuesday PM into Wednesday. Behind this system, very cold
temperatures settle into the region as Arctic high pressure
dives into the Midwest. Highs will only reach the teens to lower
20's Wednesday through Friday with lows in the single digits
possible. Wind chills below zero appear likely as well. While we
saw some of these temperatures back in January, its possible we
may see very similar conditions if not colder this week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1132 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

Widespread precipitation continues to shift eastward into
central Kentucky at 530 UTC. TAFs are currently a mix of MVFR to
IFR ceilings and visibilities from the west to east. Lingering
light rain or rain showers continues at TAF sites east of the
Mississippi River. To the west, expect light snow or snow
showers to develop by 8 UTC and spread eastward through 10 UTC.
LIFR conditions are possible in the strongest snow showers.
After 10 UTC conditions will lift to IFR and slowly improve to
MVFR during the afternoon hours. Skies will slowly clear after
21 UTC on Sunday with VFR conditions preevailing after 00 UTC.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...DC

Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 15, 9:27 PM CST, 4 hours 33 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
927 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-161100-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
927 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 /1027 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Considerable to potentially major flash flooding at times continues.
Refer to the Flood Watch product, and numerous flood and flash
flood warnings, for specific details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Accumulating snowfall with travel impacts is becoming increasingly
likely Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning.

Dangerous cold is forecast for much of next week. Morning wind
chill values will be near or below zero Wednesday through Friday.

Widespread river flooding will continue or is forecast to develop
along parts of the Ohio and Green Rivers.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports are appreciated.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Feb 15, 10:16 PM CST, 3 hours 44 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1016 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1006 PM     Rain             1 SE Evansville         37.97N 87.53W
02/15/2025  M2.85 Inch       Vanderburgh        IN   Trained Spotter

            Heavy rain continues, total is 2.85" thus
            far on the southeast side of Evansville, in
            Angel Mounds.

&&

Local storm report, Feb 15, 11:12 PM CST, 2 hours 48 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1112 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1029 PM     Flood            4 SSE Dexter            36.69N 88.28W
02/15/2025                   Calloway           KY   Trained Spotter

            Water getting into homes in Almo.

&&

ATL

Local storm report, Feb 15, 11:34 PM CST, 2 hours 26 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1134 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 PM     Rain             4 E Grahamville         37.09N 88.71W
02/15/2025  M4.64 Inch       McCracken          KY   Public

1116 PM     Rain             1 SW Cayce              36.54N 89.06W
02/15/2025  M6.13 Inch       Fulton             KY   Amateur Radio

            Personal weather station measurement.

1000 PM     Rain             Lone Oak                37.04N 88.67W
02/15/2025  M4.75 Inch       McCracken          KY   Broadcast Media

            Daily rainfall total.

&&

Local storm report, Feb 16, 12:05 AM CST, 1 hour 55 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Feb 16, 1:22 AM CST, 38 minutes before

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Local storm report, Feb 16, 1:28 AM CST, 32 minutes before

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The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

18 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.

Winter Weather, Ballard

When: February 16, 2:00 AM CST to 5:00 AM CST
Where: Ballard forecast zone
Reported by: CoCoRaHS
Coordinates: 37.058, -88.999 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Winter Weather, McCracken

When: February 16, 2:00 AM CST to 5:00 AM CST
Where: McCracken forecast zone
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 37.054, -88.713 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Winter Weather, Marshall

When: February 16, 2:00 AM CST to 5:00 AM CST
Where: Marshall forecast zone
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 36.884, -88.329 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Winter Weather, Carlisle

When: February 16, 2:00 AM CST to 5:00 AM CST
Where: Carlisle forecast zone
Reported by: CoCoRaHS
Coordinates: 36.853, -88.971 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Winter Weather, Graves

When: February 16, 2:00 AM CST to 5:00 AM CST
Where: Graves forecast zone
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 36.723, -88.651 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Winter Weather, Calloway

When: February 16, 2:00 AM CST to 5:00 AM CST
Where: Calloway forecast zone
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 36.621, -88.272 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Winter Weather, Hickman

When: February 16, 2:00 AM CST to 5:00 AM CST
Where: Hickman forecast zone
Reported by: CoCoRaHS
Coordinates: 36.678, -88.976 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Winter Weather, Livingston

When: February 16, 3:00 AM CST to 6:00 AM CST
Where: Livingston forecast zone
Reported by: COOP Observer
Coordinates: 37.210, -88.354 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Winter Weather, Crittenden

When: February 16, 3:00 AM CST to 6:00 AM CST
Where: Crittenden forecast zone
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 37.353, -88.097 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Winter Weather, Union

When: February 16, 3:00 AM CST to 6:00 AM CST
Where: Union forecast zone
Reported by: CoCoRaHS
Coordinates: 37.659, -87.945 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Winter Weather, Henderson

When: February 16, 3:00 AM CST to 6:00 AM CST
Where: Henderson forecast zone
Reported by: CoCoRaHS
Coordinates: 37.796, -87.573 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Winter Weather, Webster

When: February 16, 3:00 AM CST to 6:00 AM CST
Where: Webster forecast zone
Reported by: CoCoRaHS
Coordinates: 37.518, -87.683 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Winter Weather, Caldwell

When: February 16, 3:00 AM CST to 6:00 AM CST
Where: Caldwell forecast zone
Reported by: CoCoRaHS
Coordinates: 37.145, -87.868 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Winter Weather, Lyon

When: February 16, 3:00 AM CST to 6:00 AM CST
Where: Lyon forecast zone
Reported by: CoCoRaHS
Coordinates: 37.019, -88.083 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Winter Weather, Daviess

When: February 16, 4:00 AM CST to 7:00 AM CST
Where: Daviess forecast zone
Reported by: CoCoRaHS
Coordinates: 37.732, -87.087 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Winter Weather, McLean

When: February 16, 4:00 AM CST to 7:00 AM CST
Where: McLean forecast zone
Reported by: CoCoRaHS
Coordinates: 37.529, -87.264 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Winter Weather, Hopkins

When: February 16, 4:00 AM CST to 7:00 AM CST
Where: Hopkins forecast zone
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 37.309, -87.541 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Winter Weather, Muhlenberg

When: February 16, 4:00 AM CST to 7:00 AM CST
Where: Muhlenberg forecast zone
Reported by: NWS Employee
Coordinates: 37.216, -87.142 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Winter Weather: Snow, sleet or freezing rain below warning levels that still caused disruption, damage or casualties.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Kentucky in 2025 Every state in 2025 This day in weather history Warnings in Kentucky, February 2025

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1232486, 1232487, 1232488, 1232490, 1232491, 1232493, 1232494, 1232496, 1232497, 1232498, 1232499, 1232500, 1232501, 1232502, 1232504, 1232505, 1232506, 1232507.