Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, May 19 to 20, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
217 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorm potential this afternoon-evening.

- Quiet weather Tuesday-Thursday.

- More active weather possible Thursday night through early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING:

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening, as a dryline/cold front combo sharpens near the I-135
corridor, and a deep upper trough approaches from the west. Ample
effective deep layer shear of 50-60 kts and very strong buoyancy
upwards of 3000-4000 J/kg will support the potential for severe
storms, capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few
tornadoes. Thinking areas generally along/east of a line extending
from Salina to Hutchinson to Anthony have the greatest potential for
storms.

Deep layer shear vectors have a strong parallel component to the
dryline/cold front, in addition to more pronounced upper forcing and
stout mid-level cooling approaching from the west. Consequently,
storm mode may tend to be a bit messier, with the potential for
several storms close together and associated storm mergers, which
could tend to limit the number of storms capable of higher-end
severe weather. However, long and straight hodographs in conjunction
with the strong buoyancy will support splitting supercells capable
of large hail and damaging winds. Could also see a handful of
tornadoes as well given the ample low-level buoyancy, especially
with any supercells that can track to the right of the hodograph.
Even if storms are spaced close together, strong 0-1km storm-
relative flow from the east would support mostly undisturbed storm
inflow, especially for right-moving supercells. Furthermore, can't
rule out a landspout tornado threat before 8 PM, especially in
vicinity of the slow-moving dryline/cold front near and either side
of I-135, given the strong buoyancy amidst strengthening low-level
vorticity along the frontal zone. Thinking the highest severe threat
will exit southeast KS to the east by around midnight.

Later this evening and tonight in back of the departing severe
threat, a secondary area of showers/storms is expected to move in
from the west, immediately ahead of the negatively tilted deep upper
trough. Ample instability amidst the cold air aloft along with
adequate deep layer shear could support some large hail with this
final round of activity.

ACTIVE PATTERN POSSIBLY RETURNING BY LATE WEEK:

The pattern could turn favorable for periodic storm chances
returning by Thursday night, and persisting into early next week, as
west-northwest flow aloft develops over the region, and gradually
transitions to zonal to perhaps southwest flow aloft. Given the
potential for modest instability and decent deep layer shear, this
pattern could favor periodic bouts of strong to perhaps severe
storms, along with locally heavy rainfall. Stay tuned as we refine
forecast details in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to increase
across the region this afternoon and evening, generally along
and east of a line extending from Salina to Hutchinson to
Anthony, and gradually exiting southeast KS to the east by
around midnight. The strongest activity will be capable of large
hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes.

In back of this first area of storms, a secondary area of
showers and storms could progress east across central and
eastern Kansas later this evening and overnight, posing a threat
for marginally severe hail. Did not include this 2nd threat in
the TAFs just yet, and will re-evaluate for the 00z issuance.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
120 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-201830-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
120 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and
evening, primarily along and east of a line extending from Salina to
Hutchinson to Anthony. The stronger storms will be capable of
tennis ball size hail, damaging downburst winds and a couple
tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Periodic thunderstorm chances return by Thursday night, and remain
through early next week. There will be some chances for strong to
marginally severe storms through this period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely this afternoon and evening.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict