A mesoscale convective complex rolled through Missouri during the overnight hours of May 19th. Though central, east-central, and northeast Missouri also experienced severe weather, the bulk of the event occurred in southeast Missouri.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LSX wrote it up.
A mesoscale convective complex rolled through Missouri during the overnight hours of May 19th. Though central, east-central, and northeast Missouri also experienced severe weather, the bulk of the event occurred in southeast Missouri. There, 7 confirmed tornadoes touched down. Luckily no injuries or fatalities were reported. Further north, the St. Louis metropolitan area was hammered with up to 2 inch hail.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 19, 5:19 PM CST, 1 hour 43 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 619 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread thunderstorms are expected this evening, some of which could be strong to severe with damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. There is also a subsequent conditional risk of locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding overnight. - A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible again Tuesday afternoon/early evening, but the overall risk is lower than this evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tuesday Night) Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 A warm front currently stretches from just north of Kansas City through central MO and into far southwestern IL. This front will continue to lift slowly northward across more of the CWA, marking the northern limit of richer low-level moisture and instability. With bouts of surface heating, short-term model guidance advertise MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg extending to near the warm front by this evening. Thunderstorms, including supercells, are already ongoing across northeastern OK/southeastern KS early this afternoon, with thunderstorms only increasing in coverage across the western half of MO in association with a passing shortwave trough and minimal convective inhibition. As a result, thunderstorms will likely be growing upscale into one or more MCSs that track northeastward across the CWA, reaching central MO as early as 22z. Ahead of these thunderstorms, more isolated thunderstorms are possible within broad low-level isentropic ascent; however, the strength of these thunderstorms may be limited early by a weakness in mid-level winds and effective wind shear with an amplifying, immediately upstream ridge. Through this evening, deep-layer and effective wind shear will increase to 35 to 50 kt with some low-level hodograph curvature, sufficient for a mixed mode of multicell/QLCS and a few transient supercells. Considering convective mode, damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes all remain hazards with severe thunderstorms. The greatest threat is across central MO, decreasing gradually eastward across the Mississippi River with instability generally decreasing with time and with north/east extent. The longevity of the severe thunderstorm threat will also depend on how quickly thunderstorms overturn instability and propagate across the CWA but the general consensus is for the threat to wane around 04 to 05z. With favorable ingredients for high rainfall rates (i.e., deep- warm cloud depths 10 to 12 kft and anomalous PWAT over 1.6") as well, isolated flash flooding is possible where any thunderstorm training or backbuilding can take place. The heavy rainfall/flash flood threat is largely conditional on a favorable interaction between a southerly LLJ and the southern flank of any MCS in the absence of pre-existing boundary aligned with the southwesterly deep- layer flow. With a more potent upper-level trough pivoting across the Mid- Mississippi River Vally Tuesday morning, at least scattered showers and thunderstorms could be ongoing, depending on how much instability is available. However, by midday/afternoon, the axis of the trough will already be lifting to the northeast, limiting confidence in coverage of redeveloping thunderstorms in the presence of a weak capping inversion beneath a subtle dry conveyor belt and veering surface winds ahead of a weak cold front. Therefore, the highest HREF probabilities of measurable rainfall (40 to 60 percent) are along/east of the Mississippi River within relatively stronger ascent. Conversely, most short-term model guidance indicate that the dry conveyor belt combined with residual moisture and heating will support around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE during the afternoon with around 40 kt of effective wind shear. Therefore, thunderstorms may organize into a few transient supercells and/or small thunderstorm clusters, some of which could be severe and capable damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a brief tornado during the afternoon/early evening. Pfahler && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Next Monday) Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Quieter, drier, and more tranquil conditions will prevail Wednesday into Friday as upper-level cyclone flow becomes established across the Mid-Mississippi River Valley in response to longwave troughing over the Great Lakes and Northeast. This pattern will also usher a cool airmass (850-hPa temperatures below 10th percentile) into the region upon steady low-level CAA, resulting in below average temperatures. Global model guidance are in agreement that a relatively more active pattern will return to the central CONUS over the weekend as upper- level flow transitions to broadly anticyclonic/quasi-zonal with multiple mid-level perturbations/shortwave troughs exciting rounds of showers and thunderstorms, possibly organized into MCSs that track near a wavering front. Although there is uncertainty on the track and frontal location, the highest probabilities of MUCAPE of 750+ J/kg and 24-hour rainfall are to the southwest of the CWA, decreasing confidence that our CWA will see the most significant impacts from this pattern. Similarly, with the CWA on the cool side of the front in the majority of solutions, temperatures will remain below average through the weekend. Pfahler && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening) Issued at 604 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Showers and thunderstorms have developed over western Missouri this afternoon and are slowly approaching KCOU/KJEF at the start of the TAF period. Some of the thunderstorms will be intense, including hail, gusty winds, frequent lightning and the potential for tornadoes. The most intense thunderstorms are covered by 3-hour tempo groups with +TSRA and bookended by SHRA to convey the high chances (80-90%) for rainfall to continue after the initial line passes. Thunderstorms clusters will generally be oriented north to south and track eastward with individual cells moving northeast. The progression of the activity will bring it into KUIN around 01-02z and the metro TAF around and after 02z. Thunderstorms are likely to gradually weaken with the loss of diurnal instability overnight. However, a few strong to severe thunderstorms will remain embedded within the broader field of convection. Any of the thunderstorms could result in MVFR/IFR conditions with isolated pockets of LIFR in the strongest thunderstorms. Any LIFR should remain brief as thunderstorms move over and away from airfields. Ceilings may bounce between MVFR/VFR Tuesday in the early morning period with a few showers wrapping in behind the system. Additional thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon, but it remains isolated/widely scattered and largely along and east of the Mississippi River. Metro terminals are on the western fringes of anticipated development and monitored in the event prevailing groups are to carry TSRA for a short duration late in the period. Maples && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && WFO LSX
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service St Louis MO 258 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-202000- Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL- Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL- Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO- Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO- Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO- Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO- Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO- Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO- Madison MO-Reynolds MO- 258 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Thunderstorms are expected tonight. Some thunderstorms could be strong to severe with hazards including damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. There is also a conditional risk of locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. There is a chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday. A few thunderstorms could be strong to severe during the afternoon and early evening. There is a chance of thunderstorms late Friday through Sunday across portions of the region. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. Pfahler
The St Louis radar (KLSX), 63 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:02 UTC.
14 hail, 10 thunderstorm wind, 8 tornado, 1 heavy rain, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
An NWS Storm Survey revealed an EF-U tornado northwest of Olympian Village.
Thunderstorm winds downed numerous trees near Mapaville.
A spotter reported 2.6 inches of rain falling between 20:30 CST and 00:15 CST. Heavy rain resulted in flash flooding in the city of St. Louis.
A picture of a 2 inch hailstone was submitted via Twitter with a measurement.
Cole County Dispatch reported several trees with limbs down in rural Cole County.
A few quarter sized hailstones fell east of Maryland Heights.
Missouri State Highway Patrol reported golf ball sized hail in Florissant.
A brief tornado touched down in far northern Iron County where it downed and damaged numerous trees along Highway DD. The tornado then continued into Washington County.
The tornado crossed the Iron/Washington County line where it continued to uproot and damage trees. It dissipated at 20:01 along Highway DD just north of its junction with Martin Road.
The spotter also observed winds estimated around 40 mph.
Thunderstorm winds downed two trees near the split of US 61 and US 24 at the intersection of Route F south of Palmyra. These trees blocked traffic at this intersection. Northeast of Palmyra, thunderstorm winds downed trees along Missouri 168 near Route JJ.
A tornado touched down near Eight Wheeler Road outside of Richwoods and caused tree damage as it moved north-northeast before dissipating just north of Highway H. The peak wind speed was 80 mph and the path was 2.21 miles long and 140 yards wide.
A brief tornado touched down on County Road 920 south of its junction with County Road 926. The tornado produced tree damage before heading northeast and dissipating just north of County Road 906.
Thunderstorm winds downed a powerline on the south side of Cuba. To the southwest, thunderstorm winds damaged and uprooted numerous large trees in Davisville.
A tornado touched down along Hobo Road near Cherryville and moved north-northeast, quickly producing tree damage and destroying a farm outbuilding before dissipating. The peak wind speed was 107 mph and the track was 1.03 miles long and 270 yards wide.
Thunderstorm winds downed numerous tree limbs, including snapping and uprooting a few larger trees.
In De Soto, thunderstorm winds damaged trees near Highway 100 and Fountain City Road. In Mapaville, thunderstorm winds snapped two 12 inch diameter tree branches. These branches landed on and damaged a soft metal fence in the reporter's backyard.
Thunderstorm winds downed numerous trees across Ironton and Pilot Knob.
A tornado touched down in Iron Mountain causing tree damage and minor roof damage before moving northeast. From there, the tornado moved northeast causing similar damage on Highway N and severely damaging a home's roof on Lake Avalon Road. The tornado dissipated shortly after.
Thunderstorm winds downed powerlines in Park Hills and trees in Farmington.
Thunderstorm winds uprooted, snapped, and topped numerous large trees west and northwest of Bloomsdale. This wind damage is separate from a confirmed tornado that occurred nearby.
A brief tornado touched down near Dry Fork, uprooting trees. From there the tornado tracked northeast, causing more tree damage before dissipating near Cindy Lane.
Thunderstorm winds downed tree limbs across Fredericktown.
Two of three lanes of I-64 westbound at Forest Park and Hampton became flooded and impassable. Several cars became stuck in flood water. This is a low spot and typically has high water when heavy rain falls.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Missouri, 2025Warnings in Missouri, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1264463, 1264464, 1264692, 1264465, 1264466, 1264467, 1264468, 1264469, 1264470, 1264471, 1264472, 1264473, 1264474, 1264476, 1264475, 1264477, 1264478, 1264479, 1264481, 1264482, 1264483, 1264677, 1264678, 1264679, 1264682, 1264690, 1264684, 1264685, 1264686, 1264687, 1264688, 1264689, 1264717, 1264691.