Wildfire and High Wind in Kansas, March 14 to 19, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1221 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

***POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT FIRE AND WIND EVENT EXPECTED TODAY***

- Very strong southwest winds are expected this afternoon. Localized
wind gusts up to 70 mph are possible across portions of the Flint
Hills and southeast Kansas.

- Fires will likely behave erratically, spread quickly, and be
  difficult or impossible to control!

- Cool down this weekend, then dry and breezy Monday and Tuesday.

- Potential for precipitation Wednesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

A potent, negatively-tilted deep layer trough currently located over
the Four Corners Region early this morning will be the primary
catalyst for a potentially significant fire and wind event across
much of the forecast area today. Pressure falls across the High
Plains have already been noted over the past several hours this
morning, and continued strengthening of the lee cyclone is
expected this morning into the early afternoon. This will cause
a tightening of the pressure gradient across the area, and winds
will steadily be on the increase as a result. As winds shift to
southwesterly behind the passage of the dryline/pacific front,
a quick increase in winds along with a rapidly drying airmass
will result in extremely critical fire weather conditions across
the area. This will be especially true along and east of the
Kansas Turnpike where relatively humidity values down to 15% and
wind gusts around 60 to 70 mph are expected. Just to reiterate,
this has the potential to be a catastrophic fire weather day
for portions of the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas. Any fire
that starts will behave erratically and may potentially be
impossible to control until winds somewhat decrease after
sunset. Additionally, moistening ahead of the dryline late this
morning/early this afternoon along with robust synoptic ascent
may be enough for isolated to widely scattered showers and
storms across portions of southeast Kansas (rain chances around
20%). However, any shower or storm that does develop will not
produce much rainfall and may potentially start wildfires with
lightning strikes just prior to the onset of the worst fire
weather conditions. Any rain chances will quickly come to an end
by mid-afternoon. Lastly, widespread dust is likely to be
lofted across much of the southern High Plains and quickly
transported northeastward across Oklahoma and into much of
southern and eastern Kansas. Some reductions to visibility and
air quality are likely. Significant wind gusts and fire weather
conditions should begin to wind down after 00Z this evening.
However, an incoming cold front will cause winds to shift from
southwest to northwest later tonight. This may complicate
efforts to contain any wildfire that could be ongoing. Sustained
winds will generally remain around 20 to 30 mph tonight as
winds shift from southwest to northwest.

A somewhat quieter day is in store for Saturday as a post-frontal
airmass takes hold across the region. Despite cooler temperatures,
breezy north winds and very dry air will cause very high grassland
fire danger across much of central Kansas during the afternoon
hours. Mid/upper ridging will gradually creep in from the west
beginning on Sunday, and a warming trend is expected from
Sunday through Tuesday as a result. With warm and dry air along
with breezy conditions for the beginning of the work week,
another couple of days of elevated fire weather concerns will
need to monitored, particularly on Tuesday.

After Tuesday, mid/long range model solutions start to diverge, and
a couple different scenarios are taking shape. In terms of the track
of the mid-week system, the GFS and it's ensembles favor a more
progressive and more northerly track while the Euro and it's
ensembles favor a slower and more southerly track. Should the GFS
solution pan out, the region would not see much precipitation if
anything at all, and temperatures behind the cold front will likely
be milder. Should the Euro solution pan out, the area has the
potential to see some much colder air along with some late season
snowfall Wednesday morning/early afternoon. It's a bit too early to
tell exactly which scenario will materialize, but it will be
something to monitor moving forward. Regardless, temperatures are
set to rebound across the area late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites over the next 24
hours.

Main concern this afternoon continues to be the arrival of very
strong southerly winds eventually shifting northwest later this
evening following the passage of a cold front. Sustained winds of 30-
35 kts continue to be expected along with gusts up to 50-60 kts
possible, especially in south central and southeast KS. Winds should
die down some following the frontal passage, though gusts in the 30-
40 kt range are expected through the end of the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

- Extreme to catastrophic fire danger will be in place late
  Friday morning through the early evening, especially along and
  east of the Kansas Turnpike.

- Very high fire danger in central Kansas on Saturday. Similar
  conditions are expected areawide on Monday and Tuesday, with
  extreme fire danger expected across the Flint Hills Tuesday
  afternoon.

.FRIDAY...

South and southwest winds will pick up late this morning into
the afternoon hours with gusts around 50 to 70 mph likely,
especially in areas along and south of the Kansas Turnpike.
Combined with RH values around 15-25%, widespread extreme fire
danger is anticipated with catastrophic potential across south-
central and southeast Kansas. Any fire that starts will be
difficult (if not impossible) to control. Additionally, winds
will shift to the west and then northwest as a cold front makes
its way through the area this evening. Winds will decrease to
around 20-30 mph with locally higher gusts at times behind the
cold front.

.SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY...

Gusty northwest winds combined with RH values in the 15-20% range
will result in very high fire danger late Saturday morning through
the afternoon for areas primarily along and west of Interstate 135.

Breezy southerly/southwesterly winds alongside unseasonably warm
temperatures will result in very high fire danger throughout the
area Monday afternoon. Similar conditions are expected to result in
very high fire danger areawide once again on Tuesday, with extreme
fire danger possible across the Flint Hills.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>052-067-068-082-091.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ047>052-067-
068-082-091.
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ053-
069>072-083-092>096-098>100.
High Wind Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ053-
069>072-083-092>096-098>100.

&&

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JWK
FIRE WEATHER...JC/JWK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
343 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-150845-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
343 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Very strong southwest winds are expected across the area this
afternoon with gusts around 55 to 70 mph along and southeast of the
Kansas Turnpike. See the latest High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory
for additional information.

Very strong winds and low humidity will bring volatile fire weather
conditions to much of the area today, with the Flint Hills into
southeast Kansas at greatest risk. See the latest Red Flag Warning
for additional information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Very high fire danger will be in place Saturday afternoon for areas
along and west of Interstate 135. Warm conditions and gusty winds
will elevate the grassland fire danger into the very high category
area wide for both Monday and Tuesday, with extreme fire danger
possible in the Flint Hills Tuesday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict