Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, June 2, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
350 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong damaging winds will be possible tonight (45 to near
  60%), especially west of highway 183. Wind gusts greater than
  70 mph can be expected.

- Much cooler temperatures can be expected on Tuesday. There is
  currently a greater than 70% chance that high temperatures
  will remain below 70 degrees west and north of Dodge City.

- Unseasonably cool with thunderstorms possible almost each day
  for the last half of the work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Mesoscale Discussion...

Thunderstorms were firing early this afternoon along a dryline in
advance of an upper level trough. CAPE was high but 0-6 km bulk
shear values were only 15 to 25 kts. Thunderstorms were already
developing across far western Kansas and these will eventually grow
upscale into a line later in the afternoon and evening. Potentially
damaging wind gusts will be the main concern given high DCAPE
and CAPE values, along with small hail. 60-70+ mph wind gusts
will likely be widespread all along the eastward propagating
line. Given the weak shear and non supercellular storm mode,
significant tornadoes are not anticipated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

An area of low pressure at the surface was centered over
southeast Colorado earlier today, with a surface boundary
extending south into the Texas Panhandle. A 500mb trough was
situated over Arizona, and as of 10am Monday scattered
thunderstorms were ongoing ahead of this upper level trough over
New Mexico. Short term weather models are in good agreement
that this upper level trough moving into southwest Kansas early
tonight as enhanced lift (indicated by ongoing convection) ahead
of this upper wave spreads into southwest Kansas after 4pm. 
Model soundings indicate an inverted V profile and steep 0-3km
lapse rates exceeding 9C/km across extreme southwest Kansas
ahead of this system with little to no CIN. This plus the
enhanced upper level lift developing supports the SPCs latest
assessment and the decision to increase the wind gust potential
from these storms. Based on the deeply mixed environment and
very unstable environment...damaging winds exceeding 70 mph will
be possible (45 to near 60%) early tonight. A few storms may
also produce some isolated hail before sunset.

Currently based on the latest CAMS the greatest risk for
these strong damaging winds will be south of I-70 and west of
Highway 183 between 6pm and 11 pm. Brief periods of heavy
rainfall are also expected given the high PWATS, potentially
reducing visibility and producing ponding of water in poor
drainage areas.

After these storms move out of the area after midnight...a
brief lull in precipitation is anticipated before a strong cold
front pushes across western Kansas early Tuesday morning.
Another round of thunderstorms will accompanying this front on
Tuesday with some of these storm being capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall and wind gusts over 40 mph. Severe
weather is not expected during this period.

Behind the cold front, gusty north winds will usher in
significantly cooler air. With continued cloud cover and
lingering rain, daytime temperatures on Tuesday will not warm
much. Expect a drop from highs near 90 today (Monday) to highs
in the 60s and 70s on Tuesday. There is currently a greater
than 70% chance that high temperatures will remain below 70
degrees west and north of Dodge City.

For the remainder of the workweek, unseasonably cool
temperatures will persist with several additional chances for
thunderstorms. Ensemble models are in agreement that multiple
upper level disturbances will cross western Kansas late week and
early this weekend. One more significant upper level trough is
expected to cross the Central Plains on Thursday or Friday.
While ensemble clusters vary slightly on timing, they all agree
that MUCAPE values over 500 J/kg and 0-6 km shear will increase
to 70% or higher and a 50-70% chance of surface dewpoints
exceeding 60 ahead of this upper level system. This setup
presents the potential for our next chance for severe
thunderstorms across southwest Kansas late in the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Strong Damaging Winds Possible Early This Evening.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will accompany an upper level
trough as it crosses western Kansas early tonight. A few of the
stronger storms early tonight will be capable of producing wind
gusts in excess of 70 mph along with hail and locally heavy
rainfall. Short term models are in decent agreement with the
timing of these storms and move these storms across the Liberal
and Garden City area between 00z and 03z Tuesday and then across
the Dodge City and Hays areas between 02z and 05Z Tuesday. Between
09z and 15z Tuesday a strong cold front will then cross
southwest Kansas. As this cold front passes a gusty north wind
at 20 to 25 knots will develop and ceilings will fall to or
below 1500ft AGL.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

UPDATE...Finch
DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
457 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-031000-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
457 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 /357 AM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There are chances for severe thunderstorms this evening between 5
pm and 10 pm. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary
concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There are chances for thunderstorms Wednesday night through the
weekend. It is too early to tell if these storms will be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Reports of severe weather and heavy rainfall are always greatly
appreciated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
352 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

KSZ084-022115-
Morton KS-
352 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MORTON COUNTY
THROUGH 415 PM CDT...

At 351 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Elkhart, moving north at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Elkhart around 355 PM CDT.
  Wilburton around 400 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 10197 3727 10185 3720 10162 3699 10172
      3699 10191
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 201DEG 31KT 3696 10186

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

BENNETT