Hail in Kansas, June 17, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
Issued by National Weather Service Dodge City KS
502 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are forecast to impact the area this afternoon
  and evening.  These severe storms have the potential to produce
  damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph, large hail over 2 inches
  in diameter, and maybe a tornado or two. The threat of intense
  winds of 70 to 100 mph has decreased.

- Localized dust storms could accompany the severe storms, but the
  threat of a wall of dust has decreased.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

The severe thunderstorm threat has diminished across most of the
forecast area due to a lingering cold pool and more stable airmass
from the rainfall this morning.  This is very evident over the past
few hours on radar as severe storms over the high plains of eastern
Colorado move into Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties and immediately
begin to weaken.  There will be some further warming of the airmass
through the afternoon hours, but a mid to high level cloud deck of
dense cirrus from the thunderstorms forming east of the Front Range
will limit overall warming.  The end result will be far less
instability than previously expected for the thunderstorms to tap
into.  The top end threat will be some scattered severe storms
capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts that form
in the late afternoon and early evening hours, generally between
4 pm and 8 pm mountain for the western third of the forecast area.
Further to the east, the cold pool should effectively kill off the
severe threat for today.  All of the latest CAMS indicate that the
threat will quickly diminish after 8 pm as the greatest dynamic
forcing shifts to the east and ignites a stronger line storms
across southern and central Kansas.

Increasing negative vorticity advection and deep layer subsidence
will take hold of the area late tonight and tomorrow as a strong
longwave ridge axis moves in from the west.  Some weak cold air
advection will also occur, and this will keep temperatures fairly
mild with highs only warming into the mid 80s beneath clear skies.
This cool and dry airmass will allow overnight lows to dip into
the 50s and lower 60s tomorrow night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

A very strong deep layer ridge axis will dominate the forecast area
through the weekend.  Hot and dry conditions will be the rule as this
ridge slides through the region.  The heat should peak over the
weekend when the ridge and overall subsidence will be greatest.
Model temperature spread is fairly low, and there is a high degree
of confidence that temperatures will warm into the low to mid 100s
this weekend.

The ridge will begin to pull to the east on Monday, and a transition
back to a more humid regime will take place as the low level wind
field shifts back to the east and southeast.  In the upper levels,
lower heights associated with an approaching longwave trough parked
over the Pacific Northwest and a more favorable jet structure aloft
will combine with the increasingly favorable thermodynamics to
induce additional convective activity on Monday and Tuesday.  The
convection will once again form along a dry line boundary, but the
exact location of the boundary is tough to determine this far out.
Given this uncertainty in the dry line location, the forecast
calls for isolated convective activity across the entire forecast
area each day as reflected by PoP values of 20 to 30 percent.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 502 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

At GLD, the primary concern will be the potential for redeveloping
thunderstorm activity capable of producing periods of IFR visibilities
and lower ceilings to around 2000 feet.  Gusty winds over 30 knots
could also be a concern as the storms move through.  The primary
threat for thunderstorm activity at GLD will be between 00z and 02z.
By 03z, the convective threat should be over and a much drier and
more stable airmass will begin to move into the area.  This will
result in prevailing VFR conditions from 03z through the end of the
TAF period.

At MCK, the convective threat is substantially lower this evening
due to the very stable rain-cooled airmass in place.  At most,
some passing light rain showers could push visibility down to MVFR
range for a few hours between 01z and 06z. Light boundary layer
flow around daybreak tomorrow will combine with higher soil moisture
content to support some patchy fog development between 10z and 14z.
The boundary layer will fully mix out after 14z resulting in
prevailing VFR conditions.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...GLD
LONG TERM...GLD
AVIATION...GLD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
Issued by National Weather Service Dodge City KS
253 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-182100-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
253 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025 /353 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms will be
exists this evening over the eastern Colorado counties. The primary
risk will be large hail. Tornado risk is low. Farther east into the
Kansas counties, the atmosphere is not as unstable and the risk is in
the Marginal category (level 1 of 5).

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

During the last half of the work week the fire weather risk will
be on the increase. Elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions will be possible on Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
Issued by National Weather Service Dodge City KS
636 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

KSZ042-180000-
Wichita KS-
636 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN WICHITA COUNTY THROUGH
700 PM CDT...

At 636 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles north of Leoti, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Leoti around 640 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3845 10155 3870 10144 3870 10113 3837 10113
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 286DEG 27KT 3857 10138

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SPRINGER

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
539 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 W Benkelman           40.05N 101.55W
06/17/2025  M63 MPH          Dundy              NE   Mesonet

            Recorded at mesonet station near Benkelman.
            ID: Home_(AWN648deaadf07e12c3e9f48bd1).

&&

CLL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
557 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 SSE Saint Francis     39.76N 101.80W
06/17/2025  M51 MPH          Cheyenne           KS   Mesonet

            Recorded at a personal weather station near
            Saint Francis. ID: PWS-KKSSAINT20.

&&

CLL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
Issued by National Weather Service Dodge City KS
659 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

KSZ042-180030-
Wichita KS-
659 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN WICHITA COUNTY
THROUGH 730 PM CDT...

At 659 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles east of Leoti, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Wichita County, including the following locations... Marienthal.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3842 10139 3870 10129 3870 10113 3837 10113
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 285DEG 24KT 3851 10125

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SPRINGER

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
600 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 NNE Goodland          39.37N 101.70W
06/17/2025  M51 MPH          Sherman            KS   AWOS

&&

Trigg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
Issued by National Weather Service Dodge City KS
702 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

KSZ002-003-014-NEZ080-081-180045-
Rawlins KS-Decatur KS-Thomas KS-Red Willow NE-Hitchcock NE-
702 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN THOMAS...RAWLINS...
WESTERN DECATUR...WESTERN RED WILLOW AND HITCHCOCK COUNTIES THROUGH
745 PM CDT...

At 701 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles east of Palisade to 12 miles southeast
of McDonald. Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Atwood and Trenton around 705 PM CDT.
  Culbertson and Ludell around 715 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3941 10077 3957 10132 4035 10128 4035 10054
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 293DEG 17KT 4034 10098 3965 10121

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SPRINGER