In the early morning hours of June 29th, 2025, a potent complex of thunderstorms developed from north-central Nebraska into southeast South Dakota. These storms quickly tracked southeastward across eastern Nebraska and southwest, Iowa, fueled by a 30-40 knot low-level jet feeding into southern Nebraska.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OAX wrote it up.
In the early morning hours of June 29th, 2025, a potent complex of thunderstorms developed from north-central Nebraska into southeast South Dakota. These storms quickly tracked southeastward across eastern Nebraska and southwest, Iowa, fueled by a 30-40 knot low-level jet feeding into southern Nebraska. An upper trough over eastern Montana and a surface trough extending from northeast Colorado into southeast South Dakota further supported their development. The atmosphere was highly unstable, with impressive mid-level lapse rates contributing to Most Unstable Convective Available Potential Energy (MUCAPE) exceeding 3000 J/kg.
Initially, as the complex pushed into northeast Nebraska, the storms struggled to maintain their severity. However, upon approaching the Omaha and Council Bluffs metropolitan area, an outflow boundary surged ahead of the main storm complex. This boundary triggered a round of severe wind gusts, with measurements between 58 and 68 mph. Significant tree damage was also reported in the Council Bluffs area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Omaha, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 29, 2:22 AM CST, 2 hours 19 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 322 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Morning thunderstorms will move across much of the area with periods of gusty winds and heavy rain, but the overall severe weather threat is low this morning. - By this afternoon, scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is likely along a weak front left over from the morning storms. It's hard to know exactly where this favored area for storms will be, but there is a 40-50% chance for thunderstorms across much of the area this afternoon and evening. - Much of Monday and Tuesday will be dry, with temperatures heating back up by late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 At 3 AM Sunday morning, much of the landscape across northern Nebraska, South Dakota, and northwest Iowa featured clusters of convective storms. A 30-40 kt low level jet was feeding into southern Nebraska while an upper trough axis was centered over eastern Montana and a surface trough extended from northeast Colorado into southeast SD. Objective analysis indicates an axis of higher quality sub-850-hPa moisture extending from north central into southeast Nebraska...and into northeast KS. Mid level lapse rates across the region are pretty impressive, lending to rather substantial MUCAPE 3000 J/kg or greater. In analyzing model forecast soundings as well as the radar representation of the cold pool persistently ahead of the deep convection, it is clear that the most unstable parcels are at least somewhat capped, but still able to freely convective given a deep enough cold pool. Despite having a seemingly good grasp of the pre-convective environment, models are having a challenging time in nailing down this forecast, as is often the case in borderline events driven by a shallow, difficult-to- resolve cold pool. The current thought is that the most likely scenario is for the ongoing , largely non-severe bow echo will continue to propagate southeast, and will probably travel across much of the forecast area as the soundings indicate it should actually be easier to lift MU parcels to the LFC with southward extent into greater moisture quality. The limiting factor is that the LLJ is likely to decrease in magnitude and veer a bit over the next few hours so there is yet a chance the the cold pool becomes to shallow to lift parcels to the LFC without the added LLJ convergence. Additional scattered storms may develop along the LLJ convergence region in the better moisture over southeast NE into southwest IA in the next few hours, similar to what is ongoing in northeast KS. Throughout all of this convection this morning, the overall severe threat appears pretty limited. Instability is sufficient but wind profiles just struggle to support severe storms in this environment...and any that become severe would probably be isolated severe events amidst broader sub-severe conditions. Morning storms will greatly influence the late day forecast. Wherever the outflow boundary sets up and stalls, it will cook quite a bit with significant instability developing in the pooling moisture. If the morning storms push that outflow well south, then the local area sets up for a quieter afternoon. But if the outflow holds up, or mixes out before initiation, then expect some rather intense updrafts to develop this afternoon. Effective shear will again be limited, but could be sufficient for storm organization on the north side of the outflow boundary, which would make for a severe weather threat in this zone if it plays out this way. Could also see some heavy rain rates and flash flood potential wherever storms struggle to move off the boundary. This afternoon's storms will influence overnight storm potential as the upper trough moves through. If the atmosphere has stabilized, it'll be a quiet night. But otherwise could see a fair amount of storm activity with a low end severe and flash flood potential. After that, look to have a couple of dry days through Tuesday followed by a building ridge and hotter temperatures by late in the week, and additional storm chances for next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 A line of storms is approaching northeast Nebraska tonight, likely to primarily track eastward. This will likely clip KOFK around 09Z with a burst of wind on the leading edge, and causing a wind shift to northwesterly. Latest guidance keeps storm activity north of KOMA and KLNK through Sunday morning with the outflow boundary gradually dropping south leading to a wind shift to northerly Sunday afternoon. We'll watch this boundary as it sinks south this afternoon for potential storm development, but right now confidence is only around 20% that we'll see storms Sunday afternoon and evening along this boundary. If weather stays quiet as guidance suggests right now, expect VFR conditions through the remainder of the TAF period. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch AVIATION...McCoy
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 326 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034- 042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-292230- Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont- Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison- Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler- Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline- Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson- 326 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast Nebraska and southeast Nebraska. .DAY ONE...Sunday Through Sunday Night Scattered thunderstorms will move across much of the area this morning. Strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall is possible, but severe weather is unlikely this morning. Another round of strong to severe storms may develop this afternoon, with gusty winds to 65 mph and hail up to the size of quarters the primary hazards along with locally heavy rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Heat index values may exceed 100 degrees once again by Thursday and Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed at times this afternoon and evening.
The Omaha radar (KOAX), 44 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 10:40 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Picture relayed by media of large cottonwood tree and pear tree blown down. Time based on radar, location at Lake Manawa.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1264209.