Thunderstorms occurred during the early morning hours across central Missouri, producing localized flash flooding. A larger complex of thunderstorms with severe winds moved through southwest Missouri during the afternoon and evening hours of June 29th, producing widespread damaging winds from Dade County, southeast into the Springfield metro area and then southeast into Taney County.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SGF wrote it up.
Thunderstorms occurred during the early morning hours across central Missouri, producing localized flash flooding. A larger complex of thunderstorms with severe winds moved through southwest Missouri during the afternoon and evening hours of June 29th, producing widespread damaging winds from Dade County, southeast into the Springfield metro area and then southeast into Taney County. Widespread power outages and damage to electrical infrastructure occurred across the Springfield metro area with over 50,000 customers without power across Springfield-Greene County. There was one fatality and five injuries due to the thunderstorms.
Additionally, flash flooding also occurred behind this area of thunderstorms across southern Missouri. Total rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches occurred across central Missouri from Morgan County southeast to Dent and Shannon Counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 29, 5:40 AM CST, 29 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
640 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Flood Watch in effect until 1 PM today for the eastern Ozarks.
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with localized heavier
amounts of 4 to 7 inches are expected east of a Warsaw to West
Plains line with an attendant risk for flash flooding.
- Additional rounds of showers and storms will move through the
region today, tonight, and Monday ahead of a cold front, but
there is still uncertainty in exact timing. Nevertheless,
there is a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for some of these storms to
become severe.
- Some mild heat relief during the middle of next week following
the frontal passage before long-range forecasts suggest heat
and humidity returning for the 4th of July weekend and
onwards.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
Current radar imagery depicts an arc of showers and
thunderstorms stretching from east Kansas, across to central
Missouri, and down into the eastern Ozarks/south-central
Missouri. The arc of showers is developing along the nose of a
20-25 kt low-level jet and associated speed convergence, warm
air advection, and isentropic upglide. The LLJ speed max is a
result of a weak and subtle mid-level shortwave vort max as
noted in water vapor imagery and RAP analysis over east KS/west
MO.
Flood Watch in effect until 1 PM today for the eastern Ozarks:
The arc of storms is the focus for the Flood Watch today.
Observed slow storm motions (and weak 5-10 kt Corfidi vectors if
any conglomerate cold pool MCS forms) will allow extended
periods of rain to fall along the arc of storms. Additionally,
a continued unseasonably moist air mass is in place. Both the
12Z and 00Z balloon launches today recorded 1.93" and 1.94"
PWATs, respectively. That is the record for June 28th according
to the SPC sounding climatology page, and above the 99th
percentile for this time of year. These profiles are
characterized by high relative humidity through the atmosphere,
deep warm cloud layers, and long skinny CAPE profiles. This will
allow rain rates to reach 1-2 in/hr with locally 2-3 in/hr
rates. Currently, 0.5-1.5 in/hr rates are being observed.
All these ingredients in place have led to the Flood Watch to be
put in place, as a flash flooding risk will be present under
any stronger slow-moving and/or training storms. Along the arc's
location in central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks, widespread
1 to 3 inches of rain are expected with HREF LPMM amounts
suggesting localized swaths up to 4 to 7 inches.
Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms today/tonight:
30-70% chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue this
afternoon and tonight with the highest chances across central
Missouri and the eastern Ozarks today, and west-central Missouri
tonight. While many places will see rain during these time
periods, there is quite a great deal of uncertainty in timing
and number of rounds. After the morning convection dissipates,
hi-res guidance suggests one or more MCSs moving through the
region, with varying solutions for timing and number of
systems.
For example, the 00Z HREF/MPAS suite of model members has some
evolving current storms across east KS as an MCS that moves
through this morning/early afternoon. Other members have an MCS
moving through during the afternoon/evening hours. And some
members have an MCS moving through late tonight. Some members
such as the NAM/HRRR/ARW display multiples of these solutions
(e.g., the NAM has an MCS this morning, this afternoon/evening,
AND late tonight, whereas the FV3 just has an MCS tonight).
Normally, with varying solutions in CAM simulated reflectivity,
relying on synoptics and mesoscale features becomes the
distinguisher in which solution has the greatest
chance/confidence. However, with the current pattern, there is
no big synoptic or mesoscale signal to latch onto, meaning each
round is equally likely will depend on storm-scale evolution and
environment modulation. Therefore, we can simply give a 30-70%
chance of showers and thunderstorms today and tonight, with the
potential for at at least one--but maybe more--thunderstorm
complexes moving through.
Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms today/tonight:
With any MCS that moves through the area, modeled MUCAPE varying
from 1000-2000 J/kg to 2000-3500 J/kg at any point during the
period--along with modest 15-25 kts of deep-layer shear--will
present the potential for some storms to become severe with 60
mph wind gusts as the main hazard. Heavy downpours and localized
flooding will also be possible with a Slight (2 of 4) Risk for
excessive rainfall expanded to include much of our forecast
area.
Temperatures are expected to be cooler in the lower to middle
80s where much of the rain occurs. This is most likely along and
east of a Osceola to West Plains line. West of there, where rain
chances are lower, highs could reach near 90 F with Heat Index
values in the upper 90s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms Monday:
A somewhat more straightforward forecast exists Monday as a
surface cold front associated with a more energetic shortwave
moves through the region. The forcing of the cold front moving
through the very warm and moist air mass will do its job and
create showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon (50-70%). With
HREF mean suggesting 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE and 15-25 kts of
deep-layer shear associated with increased flow ahead of the
shortwave trough will present a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for
any storm to become severe Monday afternoon. The main hazard
will be wind gusts up to 60 mph within stronger multicell
clusters along the cold front.
Some mild heat relief middle of next week behind cold front:
A very relative "cooler" and "drier" air mass will filter into
our region behind the exit of the cold front to the south.
Models are coming into better agreement that the front will stay
well south of the area Tuesday and Wednesday, keeping rain
chances below 15% and allowing cooler temperatures in the middle
80s. That's not much different from what we have been
experiencing, but the main kicker is dewpoints in the lower 60s
(finally below 70!). ECMWF ESATs take us from >99th percentile
moisture to 5th-10th percentile moisture for this time of year.
This should keep Heat Index values below 90 F Tuesday and
Wednesday. Lows this time period will also feel kinda refreshing
with temperatures in the lower to middle 60s.
Heat and humidity returning for 4th of July Weekend and beyond:
The relief will not last long, unfortunately. Ridging is well-
forecast to return late next week with long-range models
signaling its persistence through the 4th of July Weekend and
beyond. ESATs suggest >97.5th percentile moisture returning as
well, which means dewpoints returning to around 70 F or greater.
Current forecast highs are right around 90 F, but NBM 75th
percentile has temperatures up to the middle 90s. Paired with
returning dewpoints above 70 F, Heat Index values could reach
back to Heat Advisory levels.
So big message from this is that for the July 4th to July 12th
period, the CPC gives a 50-60% chance for much of our area to
exceed our above normal Heat Index threshold. For early July,
that threshold is 100-105 (Heat Advisory levels). Therefore,
there is currently a 50-60% chance for Heat Index values to
exceed 100-105, and for a Heat Advisory to be issued, at any
point in time during the 4th of July weekend through July 12th.
That does not mean a 50-60% chance to exceed those values every
day during the time period, though. It is the cumulative chance
of seeing 100+ Heat Index values and a Heat Advisory sometime
between July 4th and July 12th. Partners and the public should
plan accordingly as many events will be held outdoors for
Independence Day.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue north and east of
the TAF sites. For the most part, these are expected to stay out
of the TAF sites, however, guidance does suggest a 30-40% chance
for scattered thunderstorms near SGF between 15-19Z, and again
between 21-02Z. There is higher confidence that rain stays out
of BBG and JLN for the period, though there still is a low-end
chance of some showers and thunderstorms (10-20% chance),
especially between 21-04Z.
Otherwise, winds will be 8-12 kts out of the southwest with
chaotic skies due to convective influences. MVFR conditions are
only expected during times of precipitation.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ057-058-
069>071-081>083-097-098-106.
&&
SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...PriceHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Springfield MO 522 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-301030- Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon- St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas- Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton- Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone- Taney-Ozark-Oregon- 522 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Weather hazards expected... Marginal thunderstorm wind damage risk. Elevated lightning risk. Limited excessive heat risk. Elevated excessive rainfall risk DISCUSSION... Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms east of the Highway 65 corridor will continue today. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with localized heavier amounts of 4 to 7 inches are expected east of a Warsaw to West Plains line. This will result in an elevated risk for flash flooding. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are then possible today and tonight with 30 to 80 percent chances. A few of the stronger storms could produce hail up to the size of pennies and wind gusts up to 50 to 60 mph. Heat Index values across southeast Kansas and extreme southwest Missouri are forecast to reach the 95 to 100 range today. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. There is a 60 to 80 percent chance for thunderstorms Monday, with the highest chances Monday afternoon. There is a marginal risk for localized flash flooding in addition to wind gusts up to 50 to 60 mph with the storms on Monday. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances of 10 to 30 percent will then occur Wednesday through Friday. Heat Index values between 95 and 100 then return into the Independence Day Weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. && More detailed information can be accessed at: http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket This product in graphical format...along with other weather... hydrological and climate information...at http://www.weather.gov/sgf Price
The St Louis radar (KLSX), 126 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 12:08 UTC.
77 thunderstorm wind, 8 flash flood, 4 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flash flooding occurred near Winchester Drive and Newcastle Drive. Water was over the road and impassable.
Water was over K Highway at Little Tavern Creek near Iberia.
State Highway 68, just south of State Highway JJ had water over the roadway.
Multiple trees down and roads blocked in Nevada, Missouri.
Trees were down near Highway E and Highway D in Dade County.
Trees and powerlines were downed in Lockwood.
A large tree was downed near Neola in Dade County.
Powerlines were downed between Lockwood and Greenfield.
Numerous trees were uprooted in Greenfield. A metal roof was partially torn off a building.
A power pole was snapped in Greenfield on Broad street.
A powerline was down due to thunderstorm winds south of Greenfield.
Trees were down off State Highway Z south of Greenfield.
Trees and powerlines were blown down over roadway northeast of Greenfield.
A tree was blown on to powerlines just south of Greenfield.
Powerlines were blown down on a house just southeast of Greenfield.
Trees down just southeast of Greenfield.
Trees fell on powerlines and caused fire near house just west of Everton.
Powerlines were down in Everton.
Large tree branches were down in the Halltown area.
State Highway MM was closed due to trees and powerlines across roadway.
A tree fell on a powerline in southeast Dade County.
Over 52 broken power poles occurred across the Ozark Electric service territory from Dade county into Greene and Lawrence counties.
A tree was down due to thunderstorm winds in southeast Dade County.
Trees and power lines were down across roads in Ash Grove. A tree was down on a house and a car as well.
A tree was hanging over a roadway in Nixa.
A large number of trees uprooted and neighbors old barn leveled south of Ash Grove.
A tree fell and blocked the road in Ozark.
A 63 mph wind gust was measured at NWS Springfield.
Several large trees were down near mile marker 68 of Interstate 44.
A large tree fell on a power line in Ozark.
A power pole was broken in northwestern Dade County.
A tree fell down and blocked Oak Street in Ozark.
A tree down on a powerline in Monett.
Two to three large trees down near Rogersville.
Two power poles snapped, and partially leaning into the road near Brookline.
Numerous large tree branches and powerlines were down in western Springfield.
A powerline was down in the road in Monett.
Extensive tree damage on the north side of Republic. Estimated 40 percent of the city without power.
The weather station at Republic Emergency Management measured a 68mph wind gust.
A fireworks tent was blown over in Battlefield. One person was treated for minor injuries.
A large tree was down blocking both lanes of West Battlefield.
A tree fell on powerlines in Lawrence County.
A 24 inch tree down near Battlefield.
A 75 mph wind gust was measured at the Missouri agg net weather station in southwest Springfield.
Large tree limbs down and two uprooted trees on pickup and garage.
First Baptist Church Brookline saw significant damage when the roof and siding tore off in winds.
A large tree was blown over due to high winds and landed on top of a vehicle in Battlefield. There was one fatality in the vehicle.
A large tree broke near the base. Shingles blown off of pawn shop off Battlefield and Kansas.
A tree fell and was blocking the roadway.
Large limbs down in south Springfield.
A large tree down on road blocking traffic.
A tree was blocking part of Sunrise street in a couple of locations, traffic lights out in several locations along Kansas Expressway. Power lines down on Scenic, across road.
Numerous trees down in southwest Springfield.
Trees were down on power lines across a large portion of Springfield. Numerous poles were broken and lines down across the city.
A tree was down on a powerline.
A large tree was down blocking the roadway.
Large trees uprooted and large branches fell on a house.
A tree fell on a mobile home.
A fireworks tent was blown over in Nixa.
Trees down and partial road blockage in the area.
Trees down at golf course in southeast Springfield.
Tree down on Tennis St in Christian County.
A tree fell down blocking the roadway.
An intersection on State Highway D was underwater and impassable.
A tree was blown down, blocking Bain St in Ozark.
A tree was down on Warren St blocking the road.
Trees were down on the road.
Tree down on Parch Corn Road in Christian County.
Lots of tree limbs down a few trees toppled, and power outages. Anemometer and outdoor weather station measured a 79 mph wind gust.
Tree was down in the eastbound lane.
A tree was down on Selmore Road blocking the road.
A tree was uprooted and another tree split on Henderson Road.
A tree was split on Bailwick drive.
A tree split on Jennifer lane in Rogersville.
Sixty to seventy mph winds downed trees and power lines. Four boats were capsized on Table Rock Lake.
A large tree limb fell down.
A 62 mph wind gust was measured southwest of Walnut Shade.
Large tree branches broke off.
Tree tops were broken off in the Lampe area.
A large tree limb fell off and fell near a camper.
Four individuals were injured by flying debris at the Thunder Ridge Nature Arena. Stage displays and sound systems were damaged, as well as facility tents and other structures.
Street flooding was occurring in Willow Springs.
State Highway T was closed due to flooding.
State Highway 142 was closed due to flooding.
State Highway EE was closed due to flooding.
State Highway A was closed due to flooding.
State Highway BB was closed due to flooding.
State Highway H was closed due to flooding.
State Highway CC was closed due to flooding.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind, Greene | 2025-06-29 | 20 | Female | Vehicle/Towed Trailer | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, June 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1261386, 1261387, 1261388, 1261389, 1261390, 1261391, 1261392, 1261393, 1261394, 1261395, 1261396, 1261397, 1261398, 1261399, 1261400, 1261401, 1261402, 1261403, 1261407, 1261408, 1261409, 1261410, 1261411, 1261412, 1261413, 1261415, 1261416, 1261417, 1261418, 1261419, 1261420, 1261421, 1261422, 1261423, 1261424, 1261426, 1261428, 1261429, 1261499, 1261705, and more.