On the evening of July 29, 2026, a surface front draped from central Nebraska to the state's northeast and southeastern South Dakota, serving as the focal point for thunderstorm development during the late afternoon. As the evening progressed, these storms coalesced into a mesoscale convective complex (MCS) that moved southeast across eastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OAX wrote it up.
On the evening of July 29, 2026, a surface front draped from central Nebraska to the state's northeast and southeastern South Dakota, serving as the focal point for thunderstorm development during the late afternoon. As the evening progressed, these storms coalesced into a mesoscale convective complex (MCS) that moved southeast across eastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa. While the atmosphere was primed with sufficient instability, a lack of shear remained a limiting factor for widespread storm organization. Regardless, several reports of damaging wind gusts ranging from 58 to 70 mph were received throughout the evening. A notable report came from a trained spotter 3 miles west of Westphalia, Iowa, who measured a 70 mph gust. Damage was also reported, including 6- to 8-inch diameter tree limbs downed in Murray, Nebraska.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Omaha, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 29, 11:13 PM CST, 7 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1213 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Very hot conditions continue through mid evening with heat
index values of 105 to 118. The hottest conditions extend from
southwest Iowa west toward Lincoln and Wahoo.
- Scattered thunderstorms will develop across the area early
this evening, and will become widespread overnight. Small
areas of very heavy rainfall will be possible, with many areas
receiving more than an inch of rain and some localized pockets
of 4 inches or more possible. The strongest storms may also
produce damaging winds to 60 mph.
- Much cooler conditions will build over the area with highs
mainly in the 70s through this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025
At 3 PM on Tuesday, a stationary front extended from near Grand
Island to Columbus to Tekamah to Denison. There was also a
remnant outflow boundary in the vicinity of Harlan, Atlantic,
and Sioux City, another weak convergence zone running from near
Atlantic south toward Clarinda, and other weak convergence zones
as well. South of the stationary front, conditions are very hot
with dewpoints once again in the upper 70s or low 80s while
temperatures are in the 90s. This is bringing the heat index
into the 105 to 120 range. This heat will persist into the
evening, and the high dewpoints will persist until storms sweep
through.
A shallow cumulus field has developed near and north of the
frontal zone, in an area featuring weak convergence and mixed
layer CAPE pushing 4000 J/Kg. Effective shear is near 30 kts
north of the front, but the overall wind profile is quite weak.
Closer to the surface low in the northwest corner of KS,
thunderstorms are initializing already, and will likely zipper
northeast up the front over the next couple of hours into
central NE. Other deeper convective updrafts are trying to take
off in northwest MO and in some deeper cumulus in north central
KS. Through 5 PM, will be watching areas near Concordia KS,
Clarinda, IA, Monona county IA, and that frontal zone for
potential first thunderstorms in the local forecast area. The
greatest potential for those probably extends along that front
from near Columbus up toward Denison. The WoFS ensemble favors
the Thurston/Burt/Monona county region where the outflow and
front intersect through around 6 PM. This is somewhat important
because these initial storms will be slow moving and could drop
some very heavy rainfall rates with the abundant CAPE and
moisture content. This front may also serve as a zone favored
for training of storms through the evening hours.
So this initial activity focused in the 5 PM to 11 PM timeframe
will feature potential for very heavy rainfall and flash
flooding, as well as damaging downburst winds. Don't believe
that the potential for widespread organized wind storm will
fully be present tonight, but could have some damaging
downbursts especially early on. Expect these to push out some
outflow south and southwestward which may push the effective
frontal zone (and zone of subsequent storm development) a bit
farther south over time as well. Then, as the night goes on, a
large thunderstorm complex will spread east northeast out of
western NE/KS across the entire forecast area. Do expect some
wind with this cluster of storms, but it doesn't appear that the
deep layer wind profiles will be supportive of a widespread
wind producer. Currently believe that the strongest portions of
the storm system will be capable of 40 to 65 mph gusts, and may
lean more on the lower side of that range but the potential
exists for severe wind.
The combination of a period of training and/or backbuilding
storms followed by a widespread storm complex and some lingering
showers and storms thereafter should provide a favorable
rainfall duration in some areas to support heavy rain amounts
when combined to the very moist atmosphere and a modest LLJ
moisture transport that develops overnight. Peak rainfall rates
of 2+" per hour are expected in the heavy slow moving storms,
and won't be surprised to see some small pockets of 4-5 inches
of rain. That said, the majority of the area will be closer to
the 1 to 1.5 inch range with those heaviest amounts being more
localized. It is worth mentioning that there are some potential
scenarios that could bring those heaviest amounts into some of
our urban areas overnight. A Flood Watch has been issued for
those areas most likely to see the heavier rain amounts.
Cool high pressure builds into the Great Lakes and extends west
into the Plains for several days, persisting through this
weekend. This will result in high temperatures mainly in the 70s
through this weekend (although there could be a few 80s
sprinkled in there). There will be a couple shots at
precipitation by late Saturday into early next week as short
wave troughs attempt to break into the stable upper pattern. It
would seem the most favorable setup for rain would be if one of
these troughs can enhance the LLJ flow up and over the back side
of the surface high for some extra lift and moisture transport.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025
Storms are moving across eastern Nebraska producing periods of
strong winds up to 50 kt along the leading edge of the line.
Winds relax as the line of storms passes southeast and these
areas shift into the post-line stratiform rain. Winds are
becoming northerly once the storms pass with cigs now forecast
to stay elevated until closer to 12-13Z when we see cigs drop to
around 1500-2500 ft. We likely will see MVFR cigs hold through
much of the morning, with improvement to VFR likely after
around 18Z (70% chance) as cigs lift to 3500-4000 ft.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for NEZ015-031>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068.
IA...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for IAZ043-055-056-
069-079-080-090-091.
&&
DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...McCoyHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1035 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034- 042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-301745- Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont- Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison- Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler- Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline- Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson- 1035 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast Nebraska and southeast Nebraska. .DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday A line of storms will move southeast across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa with potential for gusts 40 to 65 mph. Heavy rainfall will remain possible with localized areas of 4+ inches possible, though much of the area will receive 1 to 1.5 inches of rain. This may lead to flooding, and a flood watch is in effect through Wednesday morning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Tuesday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters may be needed this afternoon or tonight.
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
823 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0810 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 3 ENE Creighton 42.47N 97.86W
07/29/2025 M58 MPH Knox NE Public
&&
LMPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
853 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0848 PM Tstm Wnd Gst Pierce 42.20N 97.54W
07/29/2025 M59 MPH Pierce NE Public
&&
LMPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
927 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0903 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg Carroll 42.28N 97.19W
07/29/2025 Wayne NE Public
1.5 inch branches down in Carroll.
&&
LMPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1043 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1026 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 1 WNW West Point 41.85N 96.73W
07/29/2025 M59 MPH Cuming NE Public
Personal weather station.
&&
CAPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1138 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1123 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 4 E Kennard 41.47N 96.12W
07/29/2025 M58 MPH Washington NE Public
Personal weather station.
&&
CAPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1156 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 4 WNW Lincoln 40.85N 96.76W
07/29/2025 M59 MPH Lancaster NE ASOS
&&
CAThe Omaha radar (KOAX), 96 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 05:19 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Trained spotter measured wind gust using a handheld anemometer. Had consistent 45-55 mph gusts and one gust of 70 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Iowa in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Iowa, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1282694.