A morning frontal boundary on the northern edge of the Quad State lifted a little northward during the day on the 15th. A 40-50kt jet out of the WSW continued into the Quad State, bringing enough Gulf moisture to keep PWATs over 2 inches.
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The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A morning frontal boundary on the northern edge of the Quad State lifted a little northward during the day on the 15th. A 40-50kt jet out of the WSW continued into the Quad State, bringing enough Gulf moisture to keep PWATs over 2 inches. MLCAPE values reached 2000-2500J/kg, while effective bulk shear remained limited. In Southwest Indiana, scattered showers and thunderstorms occurred through the day. A funnel cloud was observed from Poseyville midday, while brief flooding occurred late afternoon in Boonville.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 15, 4:45 AM CST, 6 hours 41 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Paducah KY 545 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue each afternoon for the next week. The strongest storms may pose an isolated threat of damaging winds. Heavy rainfall will accompany all storms with at least an isolated threat for flash flooding. - Heat indices will climb into the triple digits and possibly exceed advisory threshold throughout the region Wednesday through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 115 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 The synoptic situation looks very little changed from 24 hours ago (or for that matter 3-4 days ago). Broad/weak troughing over the western plains feeds into a 40-50 kt west southwesterly jet "max" over MO/IL/IN/OH this morning. To the south of that feature (including the quad-state region) sits a humid Gulf driven soup with column PWAT values of 2.1 to 2.2 inches and surface dewpoints in the mid 70s. Observed and model soundings support another day of scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and diminishing this evening. Severe potential remains limited but local downbursts remain possible and exceptionally efficient rainfall rates with warm cloud layer depths over 13,000 ft in 2.2 inch PWAT will make flooding possible anywhere storms persist more than about 30 minutes given our ground conditions. Wednesday a shortwave trough begins to eject off the Rockies over the high plains but probably too far away to influence our weather much. Expect another day of scattered showers and storms with downburst/efficient rain potential. Thursday that trough gets a little closer as it begins to be absorbed in the broader polar jet over the Great Lakes region - so we could see a little bit better coverage. A surface front also looks to work close to, but probably staying north of, the area Thursday evening. Deterministic and ensemble guidance has dewpoints 74-78 during this period which pushes heat index values close to advisory criteria and it remains possible, particularly Thursday or Friday, we will hit that threshold if we end up with a little less cloud cover/rainfall coverage. Deterministic ECMWF keeps the jet max far enough north Friday to perhaps give us a little less thunder coverage, but the GFS keeps it close enough to keep thunder going through the weekend. Monday is the first glimpse of enough ridging building in aloft to suppress convection a little but we still have precip chances. I guess at least the good fortune is there aren't any organized synoptic scale systems interacting with this juicy air that give us a clear cut flash flood/severe risk, or not strong enough subsidence to give us a clean heat danger situation, but it won't take a lot of nudging either way to get into that territory for a day or two. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 545 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Ground fog should mix out fairly quickly this morning. Scattered showers and storms will form again in the late morning and afternoon diminishing after sunset. Winds should be fairly light most of the day. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && DISCUSSION...JGG AVIATION...JGG
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 719 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100- 107>112-114-161230- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-White- Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-Hardin- Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-Warrick- Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-Livingston- Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-Union KY-Webster- Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO- Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-Ripley-Butler-Stoddard- Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 719 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 /819 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected into early this evening. A storm or two may briefly become strong to severe with gusty to damaging winds the main threat. Torrential rainfall will accompany any storms and flash flooding may develop where any storms persist. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected each afternoon through Monday. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible and all storms will be capable of brief torrential rainfall. Afternoon heat indices will climb into the 100 to 105 degree range throughout the Quad State Wednesday through Saturday .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. JGG
The Evansville,IN radar (KVWX), 11 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:28 UTC.
1 funnel cloud, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Several pictures were taken, from Poseyville, of a funnel cloud associated with a storm cell tracking northeastward from Wadesville to Cynthiana.
Brief minor flooding of several roads occurred in Boonville as heavy rainfall produced approximately an inch of rain in 45 minutes. Lack of additional storms kept flooding issues from worsening.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Indiana in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Indiana, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1292082, 1292113.