An environment consisting of modest instability (1000 J/kg SBCAPE) and weak shear supported a couple of strong storms as they moved northeast through Wayne county. One storm produced strong winds north of Fairfield.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
An environment consisting of modest instability (1000 J/kg SBCAPE) and weak shear supported a couple of strong storms as they moved northeast through Wayne county. One storm produced strong winds north of Fairfield.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 20, 1:33 PM CST, 1 hour 35 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 233 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above average temperatures continue through Monday then pleasantly cooler the remainder of the week. Highs will dip back down into the 70s. - Transitioning to a much welcomed wetter pattern this week with daily rain chances starting from tomorrow. By the weekend we could see a grand total of 2-3" of rain on the high end. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 Satellite this afternoon showing a cu field trying to develop along with some high level clouds streaming in from the southwest. On radar several storms have formed outside the CWA to the northwest associated with a lobe of vorticity that is swinging through this afternoon and could touch off more scattered showers and storms across northwest portions of the area. While we are not outlooked for anything but general thunder, a few storms could be on the stronger side and produce some gusty winds as they collapse. Chances for scattered showers and storms continue tonight and ramp up into tomorrow morning as the parent shortwave aloft lifts northward and a second one pulls up behind it. Above average temperatures are expected to continue through Monday then a pleasant cool down is expected. Rain chances pick up even more Sunday night through Monday as the aforementioned second shortwave aloft comes through. Temperatures begin to cool down by Tuesday as the pattern shifts to one that is wetter and more active for the remainder of the week. Highs come down into the 70s for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Chances for rain continue every day through Friday afternoon with PWATs around 1.5". This means that on the high end we could see a grand total around 2- 3" of rain by the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 Expecting sporadic, gusty thunderstorms to develop later this afternoon that will increase in coverage later overnight and into tomorrow. Sites that see thunderstorms could see a reduction in vsbys and gusty erratic winds. Cloud cover is expected to increase through the day today and overnight. Winds will generally be light and variable this afternoon and then nearly calm overnight, and then out of the southwest tomorrow around 7-10 kts. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && DISCUSSION...HICKFORD AVIATION...HICKFORD
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 241 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-211200- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 241 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 /341 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible, with best chances for a stronger storm during the peak heating hours of the afternoon. Heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds are the primary anticipated hazards, should a stronger storm occur. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast daily. Stronger storms will be capable of heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation not anticipated at this time.
The Evansville,IN radar (KVWX), 56 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:07 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds gusted to around 60 mph along Highway 161 a few miles west of Mount Erie.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, September 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1294421.