A series of largely sub-severe thunderstorms moved across northeastern and east-central Illinois during the afternoon and evening of the 29th. A few storms were stronger than the rest producing damaging winds and heavy rainfall, namely in Ford and Lake Counties.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LOT wrote it up.
A series of largely sub-severe thunderstorms moved across northeastern and east-central Illinois during the afternoon and evening of the 29th. A few storms were stronger than the rest producing damaging winds and heavy rainfall, namely in Ford and Lake Counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Chicago, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 29, 11:31 AM CST, 2 hours 39 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1231 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid today with peak heat indices around 100 degrees away from the Illinois shore (modest lake cooling there). - Isolated gusty thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through tonight, with the lake breeze being a likely focus if storms develop this afternoon. - Scattered thunderstorms are probable on Monday ahead of a cold front, with the strongest capable of producing localized damaging winds. - Heat and humidity will return for the 4th of July holiday weekend, along with thunderstorm chances, particularly on Saturday-Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1021 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 No major updates to the forecast through today, with the broader picture remaining unchanged. However, there are some subtle features of note this morning that offer insights to convective trends this afternoon. Recent analysis depicts a slight surface moisture gradient draped across the forecast area from La Salle County eastward around the Kankakee River Valley, with mid 70s dew points common south of this line. This deeper reservoir of moisture will slowly advect NNE through the afternoon and partially offset diurnal mixing with drier air aloft. A developing cumulus field prior to 10am speaks to the moisture availability in this area. Next, water vapor imagery and a narrow axis of elevated cumulus from the Quad Cities to far northwest Indiana earlier this morning depicts a stalling mid-level front roughly within the 700-500 hPa layer. Finally, a lake-modified boundary is becoming more defined with time along the immediate Illinois shore. Rapid destabilization this morning will leave the entire area more or less uncapped by noon. Focus therefore turns to whether forcing from the noted features can generate sufficient cumulus depth to sustain deeper convection. Expectations are that widely isolated convection could develop as early as noon along the lake boundary in IL/IN, in the vicinity of the mid-level front as surface-based cumulus mix into that layer, and with unforeseen microscale convergent axes (i.e. local thermals) where moisture depth is higher across the southern forecast area. Any individual cells should be short-lived owning to modest mid-level drying and weak mid-level flow, but resultant gusty outflows will provide additional forcing for new cells. So, if convection does overperform, a very messy radar presentation would be expected mid to late afternoon across northeast Illinois and areas to the south and east. Kluber && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 331 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Through This Evening: The main story today will be the hot and humid conditions, though isolated thunderstorms are still possible. Early this morning, the anticipated MCS across the upper MS Valley and northern WI is pushing eastward across NW WI. The lack of appreciable southeastward propagation of outflow thus far suggests that this feature will likely be a non-factor in our weather this afternoon. Regional observations depict a pool of low-mid 70s dew points from downstate and central IL into eastern Iowa. These oppressive dew points will slosh back northward into our area today, setting the stage for another day of heat and humidity (after the brief break in the humidity on Saturday). The main question mark regarding the peak heat indices today is afternoon dew point (Td) trends. Given recent overly aggressive mixing out of dew points on humid days, continued to lean toward the less "mixy" guidance. Thus, kept forecast Td generally in the 70s, with the best chance for upper 60s across interior portions of Chicago and nearby. Climo of expected 925 mb temps (mid 20s Celsius) at peak heating today yields highs in the lower-mid 90s. Barring convective and/or lake breeze influence reaching interior Chicago and nearby suburbs, the localized mid 90s readings should be most prevalent in these areas. Peak heat indices should top out in the upper 90s to around 100, similar to our previous official forecasts. Modest south-southwest synoptic winds and the sharp land-lake thermal gradient should be conducive for a lake breeze to slip inland along the Illinois shore and the boundary likely held up just off the Indiana shore. For interests near the lake in Chicago today, temps should quickly near 90F by the late morning, but then the lake breeze will likely knock readings back into the 80s thereafter. Dew points staying in the 70s will keep it very warm and humid, however, with heat indices likely still in the lower to mid 90s within range of the lake cooling. Turning to convective potential today, any large scale forcing mechanisms are quite nebulous aside from weak 700 mb impulses amidst otherwise non-existent mid-upper flow (very weak wind shear). On the other hand, forecast soundings on the less mixed out guidance suggest we'll be uncapped and moderately to strongly unstable shortly after noon. The main persistent zone of convergence being the lake breeze makes the near lake zone one to watch for a few storms to pop, as soon as by 1pm or so. CAM guidance has been alternating in terms of convecting or not convecting on the lake breeze, likely tied to the importance of exact dew point trends. If storms develop right on the lake breeze, eastward motion of only 10-15 mph may force the lake breeze farther inland and conceivably expand the inland extent of isolated storms in NE IL and far NW IN. Farther inland, a weak impulse across central IL may be another subtle zone of interest for isolated convection to bubble northward, potentially aided by slow outflow propagation. Also can't completely rule out isolated "airmass" convection elsewhere. All in all, most spots have only slight chance (~20%) PoPs, indicating primarily dry conditions. Maintained a ring of low chance (~30%) PoPs near the lake. Satellite trends will need to be monitored closely. While deep layer shear will be sub-marginal today, forecast soundings look supportive of localized strong downburst winds in any storms that do develop, with upwards of 1000 J/kg of DCAPE progged. Tonight through Monday Evening: Following diurnal decay of any lingering isolated thunderstorms around sunset, we'll have to keep an eye on loosely organized multicells upstream moving in, albeit likely on a weakening trend given the overnight timing and weak shear environment. Kept PoPs in the slight to low chance (~20-30%) range, highest far northwest, given the uncertainty and plausible scenario for much of the night to be quiet and muggy. If thunderstorm coverage remains minimal tonight into or through Monday morning, the setup looks favorable for higher/scattered thunderstorm coverage Monday afternoon. A digging mid-upper trough in tandem with an approaching cold front will provide stronger forcing for ascent. Cloud cover, marginal mid-level lapse rates, and the stronger flow aloft not arriving until late afternoon appear to be some of the key limiting factors regarding organized convection. With that said, deep layer bulk shear up near 30 kt by the afternoon could yield multicell clusters with high PWATs conducive for wet downbursts (and localized instances of flooding). Capped PoPs at the high chance to likely range (50-70%) for Monday since convective coverage may still only end up scattered in nature. Monday will be another seasonably warm and very humid day, with dew points in the 70s. A three-day break in the humidity looks to follow with drier northwest flow, so highs in the mid-upper 80s away from any lake cooling will be more tolerable. The nighttime periods should be pleasant as well. Turning ahead to the 4th of July holiday weekend, medium range guidance remains in good agreement in the heat and humidity returning (highs near to a bit above 90F with dew points back in the 70s). Convective chances may end up somewhat minimal (better focus north) on the day and evening of the 4th, with signs then pointing toward a potentially more stormy Saturday-Sunday period (chance PoPs for now). Castro && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Concerns: - Widely scattered thunderstorm development possible along a lake breeze this afternoon and also SW of the terminals. - Additional chances for showers/storms late this evening into the early overnight, and another slightly higher chance Monday afternoon. - East wind shifts a potential in/around any storms at the near-lake terminals. - Potential shift to east winds ahead of a cold front on Monday Cumulus development is ongoing area wide. The lake breeze boundary has sharpened up a bit in the vicinity of ORD/MDW, mainly just to the east. Therefore the currently favored area for TS would be for MDW, GYY, and then along the east gates at ORD. With very little flow in place, wherever storms form they will not move much and would produce locally heavy rain and some brief erratic/gusty winds. As storms move off the lake breeze they would like tend to collapse fairly quickly. Another area of isolated thunderstorms would also be favored to the SSW of the C90 area. If storms form in this area, they could also slowly drift NW toward the terminals as well. Additional isolated-scattered showers and storms may develop late this evening and overnight. While the signal for TS continues to remain nebulous during this period, enough of a signal exists to continue the PROB30 groups at all the terminals, though admittedly confidence is medium-low. Another round of storms appears plausible as a cold front shifts through the airspace on Monday. This is the most likely period for thunderstorms during the TAF cycle. There could be some showers prior to the afternoon, but we tried to hit the most likely time windows in the TAF for now, which will also likely need refinement based on the frontal timing. One complicating factor tomorrow is if the4 frontal timing is a bit slower, a lake breeze may make it to ORD and MDW and shift winds to east for a few hours Monday afternoon. This is not depicted in the ORD TAF, but is in the MDW TAF, and therefore will be an aspect of the forecast to monitor. KMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && Visit us at weather.gov/chicago
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
1215 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
ILZ003>006-008-010>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-INZ001-002-
010-011-019-301715-
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-
La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-
Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-Northern Will-
Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
1215 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 /115 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025/
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana.
.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
Weather hazards expected...
Limited Thunderstorm Risk...with an associated:
Level 1 of 5 Damaging Wind Risk...up to 50 to 60 mph.
Limited Excessive Heat Risk.
DISCUSSION...
Isolated thunderstorms will continue to develop through early
evening, particularly near Lake Michigan and south of the Kankakee
River Valley. Isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms
are then possible in the late evening and overnight. The strongest
thunderstorms through tonight may be capable of producing
localized strong to damaging downburst winds.
Heat indices this afternoon away from the Illinois shore will top
out around 100 degrees.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
Monday...
Limited Thunderstorm Risk...with an associated:
Level 1 of 5 Severe Thunderstorm Risk.
Saturday...
Limited Thunderstorm Risk.
Limited Excessive Heat Risk.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is unlikely through tonight, but any reports
are appreciated.
GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:
Moving toward the northeast at 10 mph.
LMZ740>745-301715-
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island IL-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor IL-
Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN-Gary to Burns Harbor IN-
Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN-
1215 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Illinois
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and the Indiana nearshore
waters of Lake Michigan.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
Weather hazards expected...
Limited Thunderstorm Risk...with an associated:
Level 1 of 5 Thunderstorm Wind Gust Risk...up to 40 to 50 knots.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
Monday...
Limited Thunderstorm Risk...with an associated:
Level 1 of 5 Severe Thunderstorm Risk. Saturday... Limited
Thunderstorm Risk.
Kluber
Visit us at www.weather.gov/chicagoSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville
1246 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
ILZ104-291815-
Central Cook IL-
1246 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL COOK COUNTY THROUGH
115 PM CDT...
At 1246 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hyde Park, or over Englewood, moving northeast at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Englewood, West Englewood, Greater Grand Crossing, Oakland, Burnside,
Chatham, Calumet Heights, Avalon Park, Grand Boulevard, Hyde Park,
South Chicago, South Shore, Woodlawn, Near South Side, Armour Square,
Fuller Park, Douglas, Kenwood, Washington Park, Northerly Island, New
City, Bridgeport, Auburn Gresham, Chicago Loop, and Pullman.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 4171 8758 4177 8768 4187 8762 4187 8761
4185 8761 4182 8760 4180 8758 4178 8757
4178 8756 4176 8756 4176 8754 4175 8754
TIME...MOT...LOC 1746Z 205DEG 11KT 4180 8760
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
KluberSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville
119 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
ILZ103-104-291900-
Northern Cook IL-Central Cook IL-
119 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN COOK COUNTY THROUGH
200 PM CDT...
At 118 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Lincolnwood to Bridgeport. Movement was
northeast at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Belmont Cragin, West Town, Forest Glen, West Garfield Park, Rogers
Park, Oakland, Winnetka, Bridgeport, Near North Side, Logan Square,
Chicago Loop, Lower West Side, Edison Park, McKinley Park, Uptown,
Golf, Niles, Evanston, Grand Boulevard, South Lawndale, Humboldt
Park, Near West Side, Near South Side, Armour Square, and Lincoln
Square.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 4206 8767 4203 8767 4198 8765 4196 8763
4196 8764 4190 8762 4189 8761 4188 8762
4187 8761 4185 8761 4182 8759 4179 8769
4203 8784 4212 8773
TIME...MOT...LOC 1818Z 245DEG 9KT 4200 8776 4184 8765
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
KluberThe Lincoln radar (KILX), 95 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:11 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Photos shared from emergency management showed numerous large tree limbs down, corn blown down, and soffit damage to a house in Sibley.
Photos shared from emergency management showed numerous areas of standing water in and around Sibley, including full ditches and standing water on county roads.
A private weather station recorded a 64 mph gust in Highland Park.
A microburst impacted portions of Libertyville. A large tree fell onto a townhouse on Country Club Dr, rendering it uninhabitable, and power poles were downed near Liberty Lake. Tree damage was also noted in the same general area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, June 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1275621, 1275627, 1275635, 1275658.