Slow-moving thunderstorms dropped very heavy rainfall across southern Clay County from mid-morning through mid-afternoon of July 19th. Rainfall amounts of 6-8 inches were common along and south of US-50, resulting in significant flash flooding from Xenia to Flora.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILX wrote it up.
Slow-moving thunderstorms dropped very heavy rainfall across southern Clay County from mid-morning through mid-afternoon of July 19th. Rainfall amounts of 6-8 inches were common along and south of US-50, resulting in significant flash flooding from Xenia to Flora. Further north, rainfall of 3-4 inches caused minor street flooding in parts of Decatur in Macon County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 19, 8:14 AM CST, 2 hours 46 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Lincoln IL 914 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of storms are forecast through Monday, with the highest chances (60-70%) today, tonight into tomorrow morning, and tomorrow night into Monday morning. Any of these storms may generate severe weather and heavy rain leading to localized flooding. - Heat and humidity will build into the area beginning Tuesday. There is a 60-70% chance heat indices surpass 105 by Wednesday and Thursday, when heat risk is slated to reach level 3 of 4 (or the "major" category). && .UPDATE... Issued at 914 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 MCS that formed across Iowa earlier has been holding together fairly well, though severe warnings have eased off over the last couple hours. The line from that is now along the IA/IL border and extends westward along the MO border, but ahead of it, a northwest/southeast axis of storms has been increasing quite a bit across a large part of the forecast area. Surface obs are showing a cold pool behind the line in southeast Iowa, suggesting this will continue to progress along and pose a periodic damaging wind threat. Also have concerns for areas of flash flooding, as precipitable water on our morning sounding was at 2 inches and orientation of the storms is suggesting some training potential. Since it's appearing this may be the main show, in terms of storms, significant updates to the rain chances have been made through the evening. Northwest CWA may recover soon enough to get high temperatures to the original projections, but highs in the east may be tricky. Geelhart && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 ***** SCATTERED STRONG STORMS TODAY ***** Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery reveals percolating stratus across the Midwest ahead of thunderstorm clusters in southern MN, northwest IA, and eastern NE. South-southwesterly flow in advance of the attendant shortwave trough continues to advect into the region a rich supply of deep moisture from the Gulf, with PWATs over 2 inches in southern IL according to RAP mesoanalysis at 3am. With exception to the FV3, the 00z CAMs and successive hourly iterations of the HRRR suggest isolated showers and storms will develop across our southwest counties within the next couple hours, and spread northeast mid to late morning. Given 0-6km bulk shear less than 25 kt and 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE, these morning storms will be sub- severe, but should generate some beneficial rain. The question is then: how will this mess of morning convection affect an incoming storm cluster/MCS early this afternoon? We still don't have an answer to that, because the CAMs remain in disarray on specifics (location, timing, storm morphology). For what it's worth, the 04z and 05z HRRR runs seem to be best capturing what's happening upstream, and it suggests a messy line of storms will bring gusty to locally severe wind gusts to areas mainly near and north of the I-74 corridor early afternoon, with convective coverage decreasing across our area in its wake (after 4pm) as synoptic subsidence suppresses updraft initiation behind the shortwave. Given HREF mean brings 0- 6km shear to 25-35 kt (highest north) ahead of these storms where MLCAPE (SBCAPE) values climb to 2000-3000 (2500-4000) J/kg, sufficient storm organization for severe weather seems plausible. Damaging wind gusts to 60+mph would be the main risk, though can't completely rule out a brief tornado given low LCLs...nor hail up to 1 inch with any discrete cells given plentiful instability. The past couple HRRR iterations also advertise a backbuilding cluster or nearly stationary cell south of the I-70 corridor this afternoon, suggesting some risk for heavy rainfall totals leading to localized flooding there. ***** ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ***** This evening into tonight, another piece of shortwave energy cresting the ridge is expected to fire additional storms upstream across Iowa, and these will be favored to ride the instability gradient southeast into our neck of the woods. These will bear close watching for severe weather (evening) and heavy rain potential (evening into overnight). The 06z HRRR is especially aggressive in depicting localized significant severe wind gusts (75+mph) and high VILs/reflectivities suggesting severe hail with this wave, but this is just one iteration of one model; at this point, we'll label this a low probability/high impact scenario and watch how it evolves in successive iterations (and eventually mesoanalysis and observations) closely. Training storms tonight may result in some localized totals over 4 inches - exceeding 6h FFG and potentially resulting in flooding - per HREF LPMM, though most locations will only see beneficial totals (today and tonight, combined) between 0.75 and 2.5 inches. The next round, to arrive tomorrow night into Monday morning, seems to stand the highest chance of being problematic for 2 reasons: First, the pattern may be slightly more conducive here given (1) stronger moisture transport feeding into storms with a LLJ and (2) the ridge and instability axis shifting east, which would put the favored MCS track across our eastern CWA with the westward portion of any clusters (where backbuilding would be most favored) across our area. Second, soils across parts of the area will be saturated from whatever rain falls today and tonight. ***** HUMID, INCREASINGLY HOT NEXT WORK WEEK ***** Guidance continues to trend ever so slightly slower with the arrival of the ridge, with LREF maintaining 40% or higher chances for rain right through the day on Monday and even some low (15-20%) chances into early Tuesday as the ridge takes its sweet old time building in. However, Tuesday into Wednesday, conditions will turn increasingly hot and humid as the ridge axis shifts overhead and agricultural evapotranspiration, bolstered by weekend-Monday precip, becomes efficient at adding moisture to the low levels. Wednesday into Thursday, high temperatures are forecast to climb into the low- mid 90s with dewpoints in the upper 70s to low 80s, bringing heat indices into the 105-112 degF range. Consequently, we're likely to need heat headlines, though we'll once again hold off due to uncertainty which is highest on Tuesday. Bumgardner && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning) Issued at 554 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 VFR flight conditions should be predominant throughout the forecast period, though there is a 30-50% chance of a brief MVFR ceiling this morning from 12-16z (7-11am) according to HREF. A band of showers and thunderstorms in west-central IL will drift east-northeast, impacting SPI and PIA (and if it holds together, the remaining terminals) early to mid morning. An MCS across north-central IA will arrive late morning into early afternoon, losing organization and resulting in scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the 17-21z (noon-4pm) timeframe. Behind it, subsidence should limit storms for the late afternoon-early evening timeframe, but then additional storms may develop in IA and spread southeast into the airfields after 04z/11pm; confidence in timing and placement of those overnight storms was too low to add another PROB30 group at this time. Bumgardner && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lincoln IL 529 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061-201100- Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler- Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott- Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby- 529 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east central Illinois and west central Illinois. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Scattered thunderstorms will spread through central IL today. Some of the storms may be severe, mainly this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rain will be possible at times, and may lead to flooding, especially in urban and poor drainage areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Periods of thunderstorms will continue through Tuesday. Some of the storms could be severe Sunday afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rain will be possible at times, especially on Sunday. Oppressive heat will build across the region starting Tuesday afternoon, and will persist through Thursday, and possibly into next Friday. Heat indices are expected to peak in the 105 to 115 degree range. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening. Expected storm motion is toward the east around 20 mph. ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-201100- Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence- 529 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Illinois and southeast Illinois. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Scattered thunderstorms will spread into southeast IL today. Some of the storms may be severe, mainly this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rain will be possible at times, and may lead to flooding, especially in urban and poor drainage areas. Minor flooding on the Little Wabash River is expected to subside tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Periods of thunderstorms will continue through Tuesday. Some of the storms could be severe Sunday afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rain will be possible at times, especially on Sunday. Oppressive heat will build across the region starting Wednesday afternoon, and will persist through next Friday. Heat indices are expected to peak in the 105 to 115 degree range. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening. Expected storm motion is toward the east around 20 mph. 37
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1031 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1030 AM Rain Williamsville 39.95N 89.55W
07/19/2025 M2.50 Inch Sangamon IL Public
&&
BarnesPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1052 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1052 AM Rain Mount Pulaski 40.01N 89.28W
07/19/2025 M1.76 Inch Logan IL CO-OP Observer
&&
BarnesSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1054 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025
ILZ037-038-041>043-047-048-050>053-191645-
Logan-Tazewell-Sangamon-Macon-Mason-Morgan-Menard-Christian-De
Witt-McLean-Cass-
1054 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MENARD...LOGAN...NORTHWESTERN
CHRISTIAN...SANGAMON...DE WITT...SOUTHEASTERN TAZEWELL...EASTERN
CASS...SOUTHWESTERN MCLEAN...SOUTHEASTERN MASON...NORTHWESTERN MACON
AND NORTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTIES THROUGH 1145 AM CDT...
At 1054 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Delavan to near Mason City to near
Ashland. Movement was southeast at 50 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Springfield, Decatur, Lincoln, Clinton, Mason City, Petersburg,
Athens, Virginia, Chatham, Sherman, Rochester, Forsyth, Riverton,
Heyworth, Maroa, Atlanta, Delavan, Mount Pulaski, Williamsville, and
Harristown.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 155 between mile markers 0 and 20.
Interstate 55 between mile markers 86 and 149.
Interstate 72 between mile markers 89 and 141.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4026 8870 3986 8899 3957 8951 3999 9026
4021 8985 4050 8961
TIME...MOT...LOC 1554Z 295DEG 43KT 4039 8951 4014 8970 3994 9004
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
KnutsvigPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1120 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1120 AM Rain Xenia 38.64N 88.64W
07/19/2025 M3.66 Inch Clay IL Emergency Mngr
&&
BarnesSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1122 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025
ILZ044-045-054>057-061>063-191645-
Douglas-Coles-Piatt-Clark-Moultrie-Champaign-Shelby-Cumberland-Edgar-
1122 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT COLES...WESTERN EDGAR...
MOULTRIE...NORTHWESTERN CLARK...NORTHEASTERN SHELBY...SOUTHEASTERN
PIATT...NORTHERN CUMBERLAND...SOUTHWESTERN CHAMPAIGN AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES THROUGH 1145 AM CDT...
At 1122 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Tuscola to near Cooks Mill to near
Windsor. Movement was southeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Charleston, Mattoon, Tuscola, Sullivan, Arcola, Greenup, Toledo,
Villa Grove, Arthur, Atwood, Oakland, Newman, Kansas, Ashmore,
Windsor, Findlay, Westfield, Pesotum, Camargo, and Humboldt.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 57 between mile markers 179 and 221.
Interstate 70 between mile markers 117 and 119, and between mile
markers 121 and 127.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3980 8774 3921 8806 3948 8878 3996 8845
TIME...MOT...LOC 1622Z 295DEG 30KT 3985 8831 3965 8840 3949 8859
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
KnutsvigPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1140 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1139 AM Rain 3 W Decatur 39.84N 89.01W
07/19/2025 M4.10 Inch Macon IL Public
&&
BarnesThe Evansville,IN radar (KVWX), 91 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:59 UTC.
4 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Water was flowing across both US-50 and old US-50 in numerous spots between Xenia and Flora.
Numerous streets in Flora were flooded and impassable.
Water was flowing across US-50 near Flora.
Street flooding was occurring along South Shores Drive in Decatur.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1276231, 1276235, 1276237, 1276242.