A supercell developed north of a warm front during the early morning hours on Saturday (7/19). ) producing damaging winds and hail up to golf ball size.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GRB wrote it up.
A supercell developed north of a warm front during the early morning hours on Saturday (7/19). The storm tracked from the Merrill area (Lincoln Co.) southeast towards Aniwa (Shawano Co.) producing damaging winds and hail up to golf ball size. 4 injuries were reported as a result of these storms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Green Bay, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 19, 3:08 AM CST, 1 hour 18 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 408 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and scattered thunderstorms expected at times today, then pleasant conditions return tonight through Monday. Some storms could be strong to severe this afternoon across central and east-central Wisconsin. - Smoke from the Canadian wildfires could reach the surface at times Sunday and Sunday night. - An active pattern is expected during the middle of next week, with periodic chances of showers and thunderstorms. Strong storms and heavy rain will be possible at times. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 408 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Short Term...Today...Tonight...and Sunday An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms, associated with weak mid level frontogenesis, will continue tracking through the area this morning. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible across central and east-central Wisconsin this morning as a warm front lifts north over these areas with isentropic lift providing the main forcing mechanism. A cold front pushing south this afternoon could bring yet another round of showers and thunderstorms as it sinks south. While these first few rounds of convection should not be severe given the marginal instability in place of a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE, the activity this afternoon could be strong to severe as SBCAPEs rise to 1000 to 1500 J/kg along with 30 knots of bulk shear. The main concern is the abundant cloud cover across the area with all these areas of convection ongoing, which could limit the severe threat as the expected amount of instability may not be fully realized. The SBCAPE profiles are fairly long and skinny with a unidirectional hodograph, which could also limit severe potential. Any strong to severe storms this afternoon could produce gusty winds and hail. High pressure brings dry and pleasant conditions tonight and Sunday. Smoke from Canadian wildfires will push into the forecast area Saturday night into Sunday. While the initial surge should be aloft, there is some potential for surface-based smoke on Sunday. Therefore, kept the increased sky cover a bit Saturday night into Sunday per the previous forecast and added areas of smoke to the forecast on Sunday. Long Term...Sunday Night Through Friday Models continue to trend towards no precip on Monday with surface high pressure slowly drifting to the northeast and keeping conditions dry. However, there could be some lingering smoke making for hazy skies. Temps to remain near or a couple degrees below normal on Monday. The active pattern kicks in Tuesday with a zonal progressive flow aloft and stagnant frontal boundaries at the surface. This will create opportunities for rain and thunderstorms as various shortwaves and upper jet streaks create broad lift, and boundaries at the surface will also be a source for initiation. It remains difficult to pin down details, as several complexes may develop and move through or near the area next week, which may also lay down and alter boundaries which will influence how storms will track the next day. Strong to severe thunderstorm and heavy rain leading to localized flooding are also on the table at times, with daytime instability as high as 2000-3000 J/kg and pwats around 2 inches. The greatest potential is in the Wed/Thu time frame as these parameters peak and a cold front finally pushes through. Some agreement that drier weather would return Friday, with greater uncertainty next weekend. Models are split on various shortwaves and other features. Temperatures trend above normal from Tuesday through the rest of the forecast period. Wednesday is currently forecast to be the warmest day, especially south of Hwy 29, where readings will approach 90 and dew points will be in the 70s. Some heat index values around 100 degrees are possible. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1048 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 The biggest change in the 06z TAFS was to delay the clearing trend on Saturday afternoon as cyclonic flow and lingering low level moisture should keep MVFR stratus across the area longer than the previous forecast indicated. Otherwise, the forecast is generally on track. Low pressure remains expected to bring IFR/MVFR ceilings/visibilities and scattered showers and thunderstorms late tonight through Sat morning. Confidence is relatively low regarding the coverage of thunderstorms and focused on central and east-central WI where the greatest instability will be. Think the rain threat will end early in the afternoon. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && DISCUSSION.....Kurimski/KLJ AVIATION.......MPC
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Green Bay WI 411 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-200915- Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln- Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano- Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago- Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County- Southern Oconto County- 411 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight There is a chance for thunderstorms at times today across the area. While the storms this morning are not expected to be severe, there is a marginal risk for strong to severe storms this afternoon, mainly across central and east-central Wisconsin. The main hazards would be damaging winds and large hail. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Smoke from the Canadian wildfires could reach the surface Sunday and Sunday night, which may lead to poor air quality across the region. There are chances for thunderstorms throughout next week. It is too early to determine specific timing and location details, but strong storms and heavy rainfall look most likely during the middle of the week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are requested to report any wind damage or hail to the National Weather Service in Green Bay. LMZ521-522-541>543-200915- The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan- 411 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake Michigan and the waters of Green Bay. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Thunderstorms are possible today. Any thunderstorms could pose a hazard to mariners. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Periodic thunderstorms are possible throughout next week, especially Tuesday through Thursday. Kurimski/KLJ
The Green Bay radar (KGRB), 150 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 10:25 UTC.
8 thunderstorm wind, 4 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds downed trees at Council Grounds State Park near Merrill. The time of this report is an estimate based on radar data.
Thunderstorm winds downed several trees in Pine River. The time of this report is an estimate based on radar data.
Golf ball size hail fell near Pine River. The time of this report is an estimate based on radar data.
Quarter size hail fell near Nutterville.
Thunderstorm winds downed a newly finished barn and damaged multiple trees near Hogarty. The time of this report is an estimate based on radar data.
Half dollar size hail fell near Hogarty. The time of this report is an estimate based on radar data.
Thunderstorm winds downed trees down in Hewitt. The time of this report is an estimate based on radar data.
Thunderstorm winds downed numerous trees near Hogarty. The time of this report is an estimate based on radar data.
Thunderstorm winds blew over an RV in the town of Harrison. The time of this report is an estimate based on radar data.
Thunderstorm winds downed trees near Aniwa. The time of this report is an estimate based on radar data.
Thunderstorm winds downed several trees in Aniwa. The time of this report is an estimate based on radar data.
Golf ball size hail fell near Birnamwood. The time of this report is an estimate based on radar data.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Wisconsin in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Wisconsin, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-30. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1267674, 1267676, 1267669, 1267670, 1267677, 1267672, 1267678, 1267679, 1267680, 1267681, 1267682, 1267673.