Rip Current in Florida, October 18, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
149 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

- HIGH risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through
  the weekend; entering the ocean is strongly discouraged.

- Poor boating conditions linger across the Atlantic waters this
  morning, including the Gulf Stream and near inlets.

- Weak cool front forecast to approach Sunday night and stall
  across south central Florida Monday bringing a small chance for
  showers. Reinforcing cool front forecast to push through mid
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Today-Sun...High pressure along the SC coast this morning will
move east over the western Atlantic through Sunday. Meanwhile, a
potent upper level trough will push steadily eastward across the
central US today and the Great Lakes/OH Valley Sunday, pushing an
assocd cool front into the deep South. As a result, our local
winds will become easterly today and southerly Sunday. Rain
chances are quite low today despite scattered marine
stratocumulus pushing onshore. These clouds are pancaking beneath
a subsidence inversion around 5k ft with considerable dry air
above. While a few sprinkles cannot be ruled out esp near the
coast, have drawn a silent 5-10% PoP for measurable rain today.

Isolated coastal showers are possible along the Treasure coast
tonight/early Sun as flow veers SE and have drawn a silent 10%
PoP there. Elsewhere on Sunday, moisture will be increasing across
the north assocd with the approaching front. A small chance for
showers may reach northern sections (Lake/Volusia) late in the
afternoon but have focused the small 20% PoP for the evening.

Max temperatures will again be in the low 80s coast and mid 80s
interior today then warm into the mid to upper 80s Sun as winds
become southerly.

The surf may look more inviting this weekend as winds decrease and
air temperatures warm, but long-period swell will maintain a HIGH
risk of rip currents through at least Sunday. Residents and
visitors are strongly discouraged from entering the ocean!

Next Week...The cool front is forecast to stall across central or
south FL Monday. Temperatures will remain at or above normal with
upper 80s lifting northward into metro Orlando Tue. Rain chances
are low but should be focused across southern sections where
moisture pooling along frontal remnants exists. So it is here
where a small 20% PoP is drawn and have added thunder. A
reinforcing cool front is forecast to push more cleanly through
the area Wed bringing temps back down to normal Thu-Fri. It will
not be a significant cool down as wind flow quickly turns NE
around building high pressure to the north. While it looks mainly
dry late week, the onshore (E/NE) pressure gradient looks to
tighten which would produce breezy/windy conditions along the
coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

High pressure along the South Carolina coast this morning will
push seaward over the western Atlantic this weekend. A weak cool
front will approach the local Atlantic waters late Sunday into
Monday. The front is forecast to stall over south central Florida
Monday, before a reinforcing dry cool front pushes through mid-
week.

Winds decrease this weekend, veering from the east today around 10
knots to the southeast Sunday. Seas will be slower to subside
primarily due to swell, remaining between 4 to 6 feet. Have
maintained a Caution headline for the offshore waters/Gulf Stream
today and Caution near inlets. Onshore flow less than 15 knots
will continue through early next week with gradually subsiding
swell. Winds become northerly 12-15 knots behind the next front
Wed which will produce choppy conditions especially in the Gulf
Stream.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 133 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

VFR conditions prevail at the ECFL terminals through the TAF
period. SCT-BKN CIGs INVOF the coastal terminals have remained at
045 KFT or higher. Winds E-ESE around 10 kts this afternoon
become light SE-ESE overnight, veering to the S-SSE early Sunday
morning. Sea breezes and an approaching front shift winds Sunday
afternoon SW-S inland and SSE-SE along the coast at 5-10 kts. Low
to medium (20-30%) SHRA chances return Sunday after 21Z as
moisture increases ahead of the front. Very low (10% or less)
chances for TS at this time. SH/TS evolution could become very
complicated due to interactions between the sea breezes and a pre-
frontal trough. Main frontal boundary expected to push into ECFL
late Sunday-Early Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  66  86  69  80 /   0  20  20  10
MCO  65  88  70  86 /   0  20  20  10
MLB  69  86  71  84 /   0  10  10  10
VRB  69  86  70  85 /   0  10  10  10
LEE  64  87  67  84 /   0  20  20  10
SFB  65  88  69  83 /   0  20  20  10
ORL  66  87  70  84 /   0  20  20  10
FPR  68  86  70  85 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Haley