Funnel Cloud in Florida, October 1, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
150 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 127 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025

 - Dangerous marine and beach conditions continue through the rest
   of the week and into the weekend. Life-threatening rip
   currents, high surf with the potential for 6-9 foot breaking
   waves, and beach erosion expected.

 - A more active weather pattern develops late this week and will
   last through the weekend.

 - Heavy downpours with enhanced rainfall rates will be possible
   on Thursday and Friday which could lead to the potential for
   localized flooding along the east coast.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 127 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025

Plenty of dry air remains in place across the mid to upper levels
this afternoon and this is shown nicely on 17Z ACARS data from
KMIA and KFLL as PWAT values came in around 1.4 to 1.5 inches.
Farther to the north at KPBI, moisture values at the lower levels
are a bit higher which is bringing PWAT values up to around 1.75
inches over the northeastern areas. This abundance of dry air
aloft will help to limit vertical growth in convective activity
this afternoon which should keep the chances of thunderstorms on
the lower side across the region. There still will be enough lower
level moisture in place to support scattered showers especially
along the east coast and the interior as the sea breezes develop
and push inland.

As a mid level shortwave trough over the Gulf starts to push
across South Florida tonight, the drier air across the mid to
upper levels will erode as moisture advection takes place with
the mid level wind flow becoming more southwesterly. This will
allow for showers overnight to increase in coverage especially
along the east coast and Atlantic waters. Rainfall rates may be
enhanced tonight as coastal convergence may provide an extra
source of lift along the east coast which could lead to the
potential for localized flooding during this time frame.

High temperatures this afternoon will generally rise into the
upper 80s and lower 90s across the region today. Low temperatures
tonight will generally range from the lower 70s across the Lake
Okeechobee region to the mid to upper 70s along the east coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 222 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025

There will be some level of moisture return today as near-surface
flow and low level flow turns back to a northeasterly direction by
the late morning and early afternoon. In return, some extra
scattered showers are expected today across the region with perhaps
a couple of thunderstorms. Plenty of dry air will remain present in
the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere, but with increasing
moisture today cannot completely rule out a couple rogue
thunderstorms unlike yesterday. Nevertheless, convective growth will
be minimized again today due to the dry air aloft. PoPs are
generally 30-40% today with east coast locations at 40-50%.

Heading into Thursday, a more active pattern begins to set up as
shortwave troughing over the Gulf will advect into the Florida
Peninsula. This will provide necessary forcing for ascent for
showers and thunderstorms on Thursday while also some deeper
moisture return occurs. As a result, shower and thunderstorm
coverage could become much more widespread. Main concern is likely
going to just be some heavier downpours and frequent lightning as
QPF totals are only expected around 0.5-1" and 90th percentile
values are 2-3" for the 24-hour period covering Thursday. This would
not be enough to pose widespread flooding concerns, but a couple
isolated areas experiencing localized flooding can never be
completely ruled.

High temperatures today will be in the upper 80s to low 90s across
South Florida. These will likely fall a few degrees on Thursday to
the mid 80s near the Lake O region and upper 80s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 222 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025

Ensembles continue to show the previously mentioned complex weather
pattern setting up for the end of the week and this weekend.
Currently, an Omega-Block ridge is set up over the Midwestern United
States. Troughs of low pressure will set up on both sides of the
blocking setup and an additional shortwave trough develops over
the deep south states and the Gulf just south of the ridge axis.
This shortwave trough will act to help break down the strong high
pressure while also advecting into the South Florida region, but
the high pressure ridge will still maintain most of its strength
and stretch across most of the eastern United States. As a result,
low pressure centers that form via the shortwave trough will
essentially become locked in place and not able to move much as
the flow is mostly blocked. Thus, this will create a setup with
continuous energy advecting across the region for showers and
thunderstorms to develop. Additionally, South Florida will be in
the easterly flow region around the northeast U.S. ridge at least
through Saturday, creating a steady stream of deeper moisture
advection. The ridge and surface high pressure in the northeast
U.S. is finally expected to break down heading into early next
week as deeper troughing forms over Canada and begins to weaken
the ridge plus push it offshore.

All things considered, this pattern is likely to lead to a wet end
to the week and the weekend as well. Potential QPF will depend on
several different factors and thus will change quite a bit in the
short term, so once details become better defined in the coming days
then total rainfall estimates will be outlined. The tail end of the
forecast period early next week is still highly uncertain at this
time, but guidance is hinting at a return to a more typical wet
season pattern with easterly flow around surface high pressure in
the western Atlantic and moderate rain chances.

Daily high temperatures each day are expected to be in the upper 80s
with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon hours. NE
winds will increase to around 10 kts this afternoon. Scattered
showers will develop near the east coast terminals as the
afternoon progresses. Chances of showers will increase overnight
across the east coast terminals and the winds will become light
and variable during this time frame. At KAPF, WNW winds will
continue between 5 and 10 kts this afternoon as a Gulf breeze
pushes inland.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025

A moderate northeasterly breeze is expected across the local waters
for the rest of the week. Hazardous seas are expected to continue
for the Atlantic waters over the next few days as ongoing swell
continues behind Hurricane Imelda. Seas will range from 6-9 feet
today and are expected to rise further for Friday and this weekend.
Additionally, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each
day. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic
waters through late Friday night.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025

A high risk for rip currents continues across all Atlantic beaches
through mid-week and into the late week period as breezy onshore
winds and swell occur as a result of Hurricane Imelda passing in the
western Atlantic waters. This elevated risk could persist through
the weekend.

In addition, surf heights rise to 7-10 feet for the Palm Beaches for
the same aforementioned reasons beginning late today and lasting
into the end of the week and potentially the weekend. These large
breaking waves can be extremely dangerous, thus caution is advised
if entering the water for the next few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            76  88  75  85 /  60  80  60  70
West Kendall     74  88  75  86 /  60  80  60  70
Opa-Locka        76  88  75  87 /  60  80  60  70
Homestead        75  87  75  85 /  50  70  60  70
Fort Lauderdale  76  86  75  85 /  60  80  70  70
N Ft Lauderdale  77  86  76  85 /  60  80  70  70
Pembroke Pines   77  89  75  87 /  50  80  60  70
West Palm Beach  76  85  75  85 /  50  80  60  70
Boca Raton       75  87  75  86 /  60  80  70  70
Naples           75  90  74  88 /  40  80  40  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ168-172-
     173.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-670.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ651-671.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION/UPDATE...CWC