Drought in Florida, December 1 to 11, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
615 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Extreme Drought for Inland Areas. Practice Fire Safety & Check for
Local Burn Bans

- Strong to Isolated Severe Thunderstorm Risk Tuesday. Tuesday
Morning Southeast GA & Suwannee River Valley. Tuesday Midday -
Afternoon: Remainder of NE Florida. Main Strong Storm Hazards: Gusty
40-60 mph & Isolated Tornadoes

- Small Craft Advisory Possible early Tuesday to Tuesday Night

- Patchy Frost over Inland Southeast GA, Wednesday and Thursday
 Mornings

&&

.UPDATE...

No major updates needed on the forecast for tonight. A light onshore
breeze and mostly cloudy skies will keep low temperatures in the low
60s near the northeast Florida Atlantic coast and St. Johns river
basin, with lows in the 50s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

A fairly dynamic time period from Monday through Tuesday night
as a cold front that sweeps through today will stall to the south on
Monday, only to be forced northward across our area Mon night. This
occurs as a surface low develops in a classic manner across the
northwest Gulf Monday, translates east to northeast, gradually
deepening as a mid level trough moves eastward through the Midwest
and the TN valley. The surface low moves across the deep south
Monday night into Tuesday morning, likely moving through GA early
Tuesday morning. The low will shift northeastward Tuesday and off
the Mid Atlantic/NC Outer Banks Tuesday afternoon. An attendant
cold front will move across the region Tuesday from northwest to
southeast, ending up just southeast of the area Tuesday evening, and
continuing to push south of the area Tuesday night.

Considerable cloudy on Monday with an overrunning situation with a
chance of showers and areas of rain and a northeast wind flow. The
more showery activity may be over the coastal areas initially where
a coastal trough is expected to form. As the low level winds veer
Monday night, a gradual increase in instability may be realized but
probably not until well after midnight, and even then the MUCAPE
looks to be only a few hundred J/kg at best.

Ahead of the front on Tuesday, some better instability is expected,
with a low level flow from the south and southwest. The better
instability with MUCAPE of about 300-600 J/kg is south of US Highway
84, but mainly across northeast FL. This overlap of small CAPE but
high shear (50-65 kt) may support a strong or even an isolated
severe storm with damaging wind or an isolated tornado. Given the
limited instability, the severe threat currently remains low.
Overall, the best chance of precipitation will be through about
Tuesday mid afternoon, with the dynamics lifting out to the
northeast by late Tuesday afternoon and the front sweeps through
most of the area.

For temps, mild conditions on Monday with highs in the 70s over
northeast FL, but in more cloud cover and the coolest airmass in
southeast GA where highs are limited to the 60s and lower 70s. Mild
overnight lows Mon night given the cloud cover and the veering winds.
Tuesday, highs again limited to the 60s over well inland southeast
GA, and 70s elsewhere. We could reach 80 deg briefly for the
southeast most zones Tuesday ahead of the front from Marion to
Flagler county. Much cooler Tuesday night as the front moves south
of the area on northwest flow, with lows ranging from the mid 30s
inland southeast GA, to 40s to near 50 over northeast FL.

Rainfall amounts are best over southeast GA at 0.5 to just over 1
inch, and 0.50 inches or less over northeast FL. It's possible some
areas in northeast FL east of Highway 301 may barely measure 0.10
inches, unfortunately, in this current drought situation.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Dry and seasonably cool Wednesday and Thursday with inland frost
potential across SE GA both Wednesday morning and Thursday morning
with weak high pressure dominating north of the region.  The next
system will be organizing over the southwest U.S. Thursday which may
spread mid or high clouds into the area Thursday through Thursday
night.

The current suite remains basically on track with another frontal
system, oriented southwest to northeast, coming across the deep
south on Friday and Saturday. Moisture and mid level forcing appears
more than sufficient for a good chance of showers on Friday and
likely into Saturday with this system. This system may also be
accompanied by a surface wave of low pressure along the front over
the Gulf Coast on Friday and Saturday. At this time, some small
potential for a few thunderstorms over the weekend but confidence
remains low, with similar amounts of instability to Tuesday's
forecast. Main takeaway is that fronts will be moving into the area
and accompanied by some much needed rainfall for some locations.
Latest climate site rainfall deficits since Sept 1st are 6-9 inches
at Alma, Jacksonville and Craig Airfield to 3-4 inches at
Gainesville.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...

VFR conditions with calm and variable winds expected overnight.
Northeast winds will pick up after day break Monday, with a low
(<20%) chance of showers at the TAF sites starting in the afternoon.
SSI has the highest chance of the sites to reach MVFR ceilings
Monday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

Weak high pressure will be located to the northeast this afternoon,
with an inverted trough over the coastal waters. A cold front will
move south southeast across area Tonight into Monday. The front will
lift back north across area as a warm front Monday night, as an area
of low pressure lifts northeast out of the Gulf. As this low tracks
northeast across the southeastern US, a cold front will move through
Tuesday. A round of showers and thunderstorms will accompany this
frontal passage. High pressure will build to the northwest Tuesday
night into Wednesday. The high will weaken overhead Thursday.
Another low pressure area is expected to lift northeast out of the
Gulf late in the week.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Monday
              NE FL High Monday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Moisture will gradually increase through tonight as a cold
front approaches from the north. This front will move through
the area later tonight, but stall to the south on Monday, only
to move back as a warm front Monday night. There is a chance of
showers for the area on Monday due to moisture overlapping the
front. A new cold front will then approach from the west early
Tuesday, bringing much needed rainfall Tuesday with a chance of
a strong thunderstorm capable of gusty winds and lightning.
Gusty southwest winds outside of thunderstorms are expected
Tuesday mainly in northeast FL. Rainfall will end Tuesday
evening as the front presses south of the area. Dry conditions
are expected by Wednesday with lower humidity under north winds.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...Gusty and erratic winds will
occur from thunderstorm activity Tuesday. Some rainfall is expected,
but lightning strikes may cause wildfires due to dry fuels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  50  67  53  69 /  10  30  80  90
SSI  58  67  60  73 /  10  20  60  70
JAX  58  72  60  76 /  10  30  50  80
SGJ  62  75  65  79 /  10  30  40  70
GNV  58  77  63  79 /  10  20  40  80
OCF  58  79  63  78 /  10  20  30  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&