Increasing astronomical tides during the approaching new moon (8/23) combined with increasing NNE winds, and building swells from Hurricane Erin increased local tidal levels through the day, with peak inundation in the evening along the Atlantic coast around high tide, which was around 8 pm EDT. A coastal flood advisory was in effect for minor tidal flooding impacts, including flooding of…
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The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
Increasing astronomical tides during the approaching new moon (8/23) combined with increasing NNE winds, and building swells from Hurricane Erin increased local tidal levels through the day, with peak inundation in the evening along the Atlantic coast around high tide, which was around 8 pm EDT. A coastal flood advisory was in effect for minor tidal flooding impacts, including flooding of normally flood prone tidal locations.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 20, 6:28 PM EST, 37 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
728 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 644 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Forecast on track as Hurricane Erin passes well to the East and
expect Minor Coastal Flooding and Beach Erosion for Atlantic
beachfront locations during the evening high tide cycle and
Coastal Flood Advisory and High Surf Advisory products remain in
effect through tonight. Isolated showers and storms will remain
possible through the late evening hours over inland areas of SE GA
and NE FL, but significant impacts are not expected. Flow becomes
light offshore during the overnight hours and under mostly clear
skies expect lows in the lower/middle 70s inland and upper 70s
along the Atlantic Coastal areas. The westerly steering flow will
interact with a low level trough in the local area on Thursday
and with increasing PWATs closer to 2 inches, expect a return to
scattered to numerous afternoon/evening showers and storms with
local heavy rainfall potential due to slow storm movement along
with a few strong to isolated severe storms with gusty winds to
40-60 mph. Prior to storm activity, expect Max Temps to reach into
the lower to middle 90s, with peak heat indices in the 103-107F
range, likely remaining just below Heat Advisory criteria.
&&
.NEAR TERM...through Tonight...
The highest concerns today remain the high surf, rip currents, and
elevated high tide. As such, the headlines have been left as is. The
most marginal of these hazards is the coastal flood threat, which by
tidal standards may not materialize, but the total-water-level (tide
+ wave action) impact may lead to minor coastal flood impacts this
evening around sunset along the Atlantic coast.
Hurricane Erin is now moving northward and it's closest point of
approach, centered about 450 miles off of the coast of Jacksonville
Beach early this afternoon. The compressed gradient between high
pressure wedged in along the southeastern US coast and Erin has lead
to breezy northerly winds, particularly at the coast again this
afternoon, along with a battering and growing surf. These winds will
continue through most of the day and begin to ease off this evening
as Erin pulls away and gradients loosen.
As far as rainfall today, coverage will be limited, widely scattered
at most, by drier mid level air. Updrafts will be suffocated by
the drier air and be shallow natured and ultimately reduce any
threat of strong or severe thunderstorms today. Given the mostly
sunny skies and fair mixing temperatures will once again push
into the low 90s this afternoon followed by cooling into the
low/mid 70s tonight under mostly clear skies.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday night)
Thursday, drier air will initially be over the area in the wake
of Erin departing to the northeast, but moisture levels will
increase as flow aloft will become more west southwesterly ahead
of an elongated shortwave trough moving from the OH valley south
into the TN valley. Lift along a trough extending over the area
from the departing tropical system, strong heating, and
west/northwest winds interacting with a pinned Atlantic seabreeze
will create scattered to numerous showers and T'storms in the
afternoon. A few isolated stronger T'storms may pulse along the NE
FL coast near the pinned Atlantic seabreeze with a threat for
gusty winds 40-55 mph from wet downburst winds along with frequent
lighting. The drier airmass and westerly winds will allow highs
to rise to the mid/upper 90s inland and low 90s along the coast
with max heat index values limited a bit to 102-106 as dewpoints
remain in the lower 70s over SE GA and the low/mid 70s over NE FL.
Thursday night, showers and T'storms will linger to near midnight
as due to the trough over the area and increasing moisture and
instability aloft ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. Skies
will remain mostly cloudy before partial clearing after midnight.
Light south to southwest winds expected with lows in the low/mid
70s inland and the mid/upper 80s at the coast.
Friday, the elongated mid/upper level shortwave troughing will
shift into the deep south. The southwest flow ahead of the trough
will continue to pump in above normal moisture levels (PWATs 2.00
to 2.30 inches) into the area as a surface front moves south into
our area from central GA and SC. Shortwave energy aloft, lift
along the surface front and along converging seabreezes will
increase coverage of showers and T'storms from numerous to more
widespread. In addition, WPC has a Marginal risk of excessive
rainfall Friday for locally heavy rainfall potential that could
produce localized minor flooding in urban and low lying areas.
Stronger T'storms again possible where seabreezes interact with
gusty winds and frequent lightning. Partly cloudy skies will
become mostly cloudy in the afternoon with west to southwesterly
winds turning southeasterly from I-95 to the coast behind the
Atlantic seabreeze. Highs will be in the low 90s for most of the
area to around 90 at the beaches.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through next Wednesday)
A frontal boundary will move through the area this weekend,
generally across SE GA on Saturday and across NE FL on Sunday,
before weakening on Monday near or over north central FL. Above
normal moisture and lift from the front and the Gulf/Atlantic
seabreeze interactions will keep numerous to widespread showers
and T'storms in the forecast each day. Isolated stronger T'storms
may produce gusty winds 40-55 mph and frequent lighting. Very
heavy rainfall rates with overall slow storm motions will keep
a threat for localized flood potential this weekend.
Monday, a more potent upstream mid/upper level trough will push
southeast from the upper Midwest southeastward into the Great Lakes
and OH valley and support a fast moving drier cold front into the
deep south near our area by late in the day. As drier air begins
to filter back into northwest portions of the area, highest chances
for showers and T'storms will be over NE FL area south of I-10 with
decreasing chances northwest of Waycross.
Tuesday into Wednesday, the drier cold front will move through
SE GA and NE FL by midweek and settle into central FL with limited
chances for showers and T'storms to NE FL with mostly sunny skies
and lower dewpoints in the 60s for most locations that will make
outdoor conditions less hot with heat indices closer to the
ambient temperature.
Highs will begin the period near normal and trend slightly above
normal early next week. Lows will begin near to slightly above
normal, then trend a little below normal by next week across
inland SE GA.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 720 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025
Shower activity has faded along the coastal areas, but will linger
at inland locations and will keep VCSH at GNV thru 02Z and monitor
for possible VCTS if activity pulses up before sunset, otherwise
expect VFR conds through the night except for the potential for
some patchy MVFR fog at VQQ from 07-11Z. Return to Westerly flow
on Thursday will increase rainfall chances across NE FL and have
added PROB30 for MVFR TSRA conds at GNV from 17-23Z, at VQQ from
18-24Z, and JAX/CRG/SGJ from 19-24Z. Rainfall chances slightly
less across SE GA and have just left in VCTS at SSI during the
afternoon hours.
&&
.MARINE...
Surf continues to build with observed waves near southern Flagler
Count (41070) now reaching just over 6 feet. Breakers will
continue to rise and peak this evening before gradually subsiding
Thursday and Friday.
Northerly winds will peak this afternoon while seas continue to
build through the evening as Hurricane Erin tracks north, remaining
hundreds of miles offshore. Though winds will lighten up, lingering
swells will continue small craft advisory conditions through Friday.
A trailing trough will linger north of the waters in the wake of
Erin on Thursday and shift south into the local waters Friday where
it will remain over the weekend, elevating chances for afternoon and
evening thunderstorms.
.RIP CURRENTS...AND SURF ZONE CONDITIONS
Strong, large swells emanating from Erin will continue through
Friday. High surf and deadly rip currents will continue through
Thursday, with breakers reaching 7-10 feet tonight falling to 5-8
feet Thursday afternoon. Beach goers should continue to heed the
double-red flags being flown at area beaches and stay out of the
surf.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A Coastal Flood Advisory will be in effect this evening from 5 PM
to 11 PM EDT due to the risk of minor coastal flooding.
An elevated high tide is expected through Friday as swells from
hurricane Erin push into the coast. The highest tide is expected
this evening around 8 PM EDT for the Atlantic coast. Marginal
minor coastal flooding remains possible with potential for tidal
marks reaching up 1.4-1.8 feet above normally dry ground.
Subsequent higher high tides through the rest of the week are
expected to lower by one-quater foot (0.25 ft). Considering wave
run up and the elevated tide, minor beach erosion remains on the
table this evening for the local beaches.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 73 94 73 90 / 10 60 30 80
SSI 77 92 76 90 / 10 50 40 80
JAX 75 96 75 93 / 10 60 30 90
SGJ 76 94 75 92 / 10 60 30 80
GNV 75 94 75 93 / 20 70 20 90
OCF 75 93 75 91 / 20 70 20 90
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for FLZ124-125-138-233-
333.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124-
125-138-233-333.
GA...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for GAZ154-166.
High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for GAZ154-166.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154-
166.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ450-452-454.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ470-472-474.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 coastal flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A trained spotter reported minor tidal flooding along 2nd Ave North leading toward | the intracoastal waterway. The road was | completely flooded but passable around 805 | PM. This is a known tidal flooding spot.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, August 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1285308.