Increasing upper level moisture across eastern Utah and western Colorado led to the development of daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain. However, dry surface levels meant that all precipitation falling out of this activity evaporated before reaching the ground, enhancing the convective outflow winds and allowing for stronger than expected gusts.
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The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
Increasing upper level moisture across eastern Utah and western Colorado led to the development of daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain. However, dry surface levels meant that all precipitation falling out of this activity evaporated before reaching the ground, enhancing the convective outflow winds and allowing for stronger than expected gusts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 28, 2:23 PM MST, 1 hour 42 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO Issued by National Weather Service Denver CO 323 PM MDT Wed May 28 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered afternoon showers/thunderstorms for the next few days, with decreasing day-to-day coverage. - Temperatures remaining warm, peaking this weekend with highs ~10 degrees above normal for the date. - Pattern expected to turn wetter Sunday night through Tuesday, with widespread precipitation favored. Still uncertainty in amounts and location of heaviest precipitation. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 152 PM MDT Wed May 28 2025 Plenty of simmering cumulus overspreading the region this afternoon, with scattered and weak thunderstorms drifting southeastward off of the mountain terrain. Satellite imagery will be looking much the same in this regard over the next couple of days, but let's pull it back into the short term before I get too sidetracked... As the ridge axis over the Great Basin narrows, it will also nudge slightly eastward Thursday, warming temperatures another 1-3 degrees. It certainly won't be sufficient to erode the mid- level moisture, which will remain trapped beneath the thermal ridge. Thus, with an added 100-200 J/Kg of MLCAPE versus today, we'll see convective initiation return near midday over the higher elevations and again drift southeastward. A few could be stronger than prior days given better instability, but should still remain sub-severe. With higher bases and warmer temperatures, gusty outflows will likely be more prevalent too, with localized gusts of 40 to 50 mph possible in the vicinity of any stronger convection. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 152 PM MDT Wed May 28 2025 We'll have a rather disorganized upper-level pattern to end the week. Friday, a separate amplifying ridge will emerge over the Great Basin, due north of a largely stagnant closed low. Eastern Utah and the Western Slope will remain under light northwesterly flow aloft, with lingering (albeit diminishing) mid-level moisture in place. All this said, the expanding ridge will lead to additional warming, with all of the Utah valleys and the Grand Valley pushing into the 90's without a sweat (pun intended...it's dry heat, after all!). Although afternoon convection won't be entirely gone, it should be more isolated in coverage, and favor mountainous terrain closer to the Continental Divide where moisture profiles will be a little deeper. Those precipitation chances will dwindle further on Saturday as the ridge axis spreads eastward, advecting a drier airmass southward. This should confine the best chances for isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorms over southeastern portions of the forecast area, namely the San Juans, Elks and Sawatch Range. Temperatures also look to peak over the weekend (high confidence for Saturday, moderate for Sunday contingent on timing of the approaching system), with highs climbing to around 10 degrees above average for the date. The hottest locations around the Four Corners area may scrape 100F. By Sunday, the aforementioned closed low off the coast of Baja California will finally begin to lift and migrate northeastward, pulling in more abundant Pacific moisture into the Intermountain West. We could see a little preemptive cooling if it approaching quickly enough, but for now, most ensemble guidance keeps warm temperatures in place for Sunday, which seems reasonable considering advection of warmer air under southwesterly flow. Precipitation potential will ramp during the latter half of the day, decreasing from south to north. Despite some question marks for Sunday regarding the onset of this system, Monday still carries notably higher confidence in more widespread precipitation across the region as PWAT anomalies rise to between 200-300% of normal through the overnight period. It remains too early to confidently pinpoint amounts or locations for the heaviest precipitation, but wetting rain seems like an increasingly reasonable bet for a majority of our forecast area, and a few ensemble members depict potential for heavier amounts exceeding 1-2" over higher terrain of Colorado. The pattern change will usher in cooler and breezier conditions, with the coolest temperatures arriving Tuesday following the bulk of the moisture. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 150 PM MDT Wed May 28 2025 Afternoon thunderstorms develop over the higher terrain between 18-03z with the mountain terminals seeing the highest probability (40-60% chance) of being impacted. Primary threats with these storms include gusty outflow winds, lightning and brief periods below ILS breakpoints. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are anticipated with periodic afternoon wind gusts up to 20-25 knots. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...Bruno Rodriguez LONG TERM...Bruno Rodriguez AVIATION...BW
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO Issued by National Weather Service Denver CO 349 PM MDT Wed May 28 2025 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-292200- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops-Upper Gunnison River Valley- Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide-Northwest San Juan Mountains- Southwest San Juan Mountains-Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 349 PM MDT Wed May 28 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Colorado, southwest Colorado, west central Colorado, east central Utah, northeast Utah and southeast Utah. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather conditions are expected through tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop each afternoon through at least Friday over much of the higher terrain, but should remain sub-severe, with decreasing coverage each day. Breezy outflow winds will be possible near any stronger storms each afternoon, particularly Thursday, with localized gusts of 40 to 50 mph possible. Otherwise, temperatures will remain above normal, peaking this weekend with highs around 10 degrees above average. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Grand Junction radar (KGJX), 73 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:03 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The Colorado Department of Transportation mesonet station 070w001 Utah State Line recorded a wind gust to 62 mph at 5:06 PM MDT, associated with a thunderstorm moving off the higher terrain to the south over the Uncompahgre Plateau. No reports of damages, injuries, or fatalities were received.
The Colorado Department of Transportation mesonet site 082w023 Basalt-Holland Hills recorded a wind gust to 75 mph at 1:58 PM MDT. This gust was associated with ongoing afternoon thunderstorms over the adjacent higher terrain. No reports of injuries, damages, or fatalities were received.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1267368, 1267379.