With an approaching low and dynamically primed atmosphere, storms were able to develop and take advantage of ample moisture. The event began with fairly isolated supercells moving primarily eastward before a line of storms took over descending from the northwest.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DDC wrote it up.
With an approaching low and dynamically primed atmosphere, storms were able to develop and take advantage of ample moisture. The event began with fairly isolated supercells moving primarily eastward before a line of storms took over descending from the northwest. The storms produced numerous hail reports and a funnel cloud.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 28, 1:52 PM CST, 1 hour 16 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 252 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms capable of producing hail 2 inches or larger, wind gusts greater than 60 mph, and even a few isolated tornadoes will be possible late today and early tonight west of highway 283. - Heavy rainfall overnight may result in localized flash flooding (15-24% chance) east of highway 283. - Warmer, more seasonal temperatures will return late this week and over the upcoming weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025 Mesoscale discussion... Unseasonably cold mid level temperatures and abundant moisture were present across far southwest Kansas along and north of a warm frontal boundary. Elevated heating in southeastern Colorado has resulted in weak surface low pressure near Springfield, CO, with a warm frontal boundary extending from north of this low southeastward. These factors, along with large scale forcing for ascent ahead of an upper level trough, argue for early storm initiation. A stratocumulus field was obvious on visible satellite imagery and cumulus towers/incipient t-storms were noted across southeastern Colorado. Owing to strong veering, 0-6 km bulk shear values will be quite high on the order of 50 kts. Northeast of the surface low, 0-1 km SRH will be locally enhanced--around 150 m2/s2, especially given a deviant storm motion off of the hodograph to the southeast at 15 kts. Strong instability of 2000-3000 j/kg will be confined to locations along and west of a line from Meade to Syracuse. Farther east, widespread cloud cover will inhibit surface heating and CAPE values will drop off sharply. Therefore, there is a tornado risk along with very large hail through 7 pm. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025 An upper level trough was located on the western side of a 500mb low centered over Minnesota earlier this morning. Just ahead of this trough, 850-700mb moisture and confluent flow were observed based on 9am SPC Mesoscale Analysis. At the surface, a theta-e ridge axis extended from northwest Nebraska into eastern Colorado, along and just east of a surface boundary. This is also where our axis of higher instability and shear were located. This axis of higher MLCAPE and shear will be the primary area for ongoing afternoon convective initiation as the upper level trough approaches southwest Kansas. As of 2pm CDT we have already seen thunderstorm development in this area across eastern Colorado and after 4pm the short term models agree that this moist instability axis will shift eastward into far southwest Kansas, as minimal CIN over this area erodes and a surface boundary lifts north into portions of extreme southwest Kansas. This shift in the instability axis eastward and the forecast location of the surface boundary late day across portions of southwest Kansas will favor improving chances for severe thunderstorms across southwest Kansas early tonight. The primary threats initially early tonight include hail larger than two inches and wind gusts exceeding 60 mph. A few isolated tornadoes cannot be completely ruled out if storms remain discrete into the early evening, as 850mb winds strengthen from the south. After 7 pm the environment appears to support that these storms will become more linear and transition from very large hail to strong damaging winds and heavy rainfall. The heavy rainfall from these storms overnight may also result in some water issues, mainly east of highway 283. In this area WPC has upgraded the excessive rainfall outlook to a Slight Risk (15–24% chance of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance). This upgrade appears warranted, given the possibility of locally heavy rain based on the PWATS of 1" or greater. These periods of heavy rainfall may surpass the 3 hour flash flood guidance of 2 to 2.5 inches in a few locations if multiple storms are able to move over the same area overnight. At this time however will lean towards holding off on any type of flood watches despite the potential for minor water issues given the progressive nature of these storms as they cross south central Kansas during the overnight period and that the 90th percentile only has a limited area of rainfall totals of 3" or more (just over FFG). We will be monitoring these locations are Kiowa/Pratt and Comanche counties. These counties will be monitored closely for possible ponding of water, mainly in poor drainage and low lying areas given the potential for rainfall totals to be up to 3 inches overnight. These thunderstorms will taper off from northwest to southeast after midnight based on the timing of the upper level trough crossing western Kansas and 850mb frontogenesis from the SREF. However, scattered thunderstorms may continue through early Thursday. As precipitation ends early Thursday, a cool dome of high pressure will move across western Kansas. This cooldown will be brief, with a warming trend expected to return late in the week and over the weekend, as a shortwave ridge builds across the Rockies and into the Plains. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025 Main focus this afternoon will be the potential for severe thunderstorms across southwest Kansas late today and early Tonight. CAMS are in agreement with convection developing over eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas early this afternoon as an upper level trough approaches from the north. These storms will then spread into southwest Kansas and cross the Garden City area between 00z Thursday and 03z Thursday. These storms will then cross the Dodge City and Liberal areas between 02z and 05z Thursday. Wind gusts of 40 knots or greater along with possible hail may accompany these storms early tonight. Thunderstorms will also be possible in the Hays area between 01z and 06z Thursday but the probability for strong winds will be lower (30-50%). Along with thunderstorms early tonight the ceilings in the IFR category will be possible. Winds prior to these thunderstorms will be southeast at 10 to 15 knots. Following these thunderstorms the prevailing winds will be north northeast at 10 to 15 knots. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && UPDATE...Finch DISCUSSION...Burgert AVIATION...Burgert
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Dodge City KS 246 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025 KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-290800- Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman- Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa- Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber- 246 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025 /146 AM MDT Wed May 28 2025/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas, south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Severe thunderstorms with very large to perhaps giant hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible this afternoon and tonight. Heavy rainfall with water issues is also a threat. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Monday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and tonight.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
338 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025
KSZ074-282115-
Stanton KS-
338 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT STANTON COUNTY THROUGH 415 PM
CDT...
At 338 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
The Saunders Elevator, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Manter around 345 PM CDT.
Johnson City around 355 PM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for southwestern
Kansas.
&&
LAT...LON 3761 10204 3771 10169 3739 10159 3740 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 262DEG 30KT 3753 10198
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
AJOHNSONThe Dodge City radar (KDDC), 158 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:05 UTC.
9 hail, 1 funnel cloud. Local standard time, as filed.
A storm chaser reported 1.5 inch hail via social media in Johnson City. Another public report via social of 1 inch hail occurred a few minutes later also in Johnson City.
A storm chaser reported 1 inch hail.
Multiple public reports of 2 inch hail in and around Manter between 15:28-15:42.
Numerous storm chaser photos and videos showing a possible funnel cloud of non mesocyclone origin.
A storm chaser reported 2 inch hail.
A public report of 1.25 inch hail.
An emergency manager reported 2 inch hail. A storm chaser sent pictures of measured 2 inch hail 5 minutes later 2 miles to the northwest.
A trained spotter reported 1 inch hail.
Kearny county emergency manager reported 1 inch hail.
Report was from social media. Nickel to Quarter size hail in Offerle.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1256761, 1256760, 1256747, 1256744, 1256754, 1256755, 1256766, 1256767, 1256758, 1256748.