The Spencer Fire started in late June due to a human caused incident in which a vehicle fire quickly spread about 2 miles west-southwest of Blue Mountain, Colorado.
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The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
The Spencer Fire started in late June due to a human caused incident in which a vehicle fire quickly spread about 2 miles west-southwest of Blue Mountain, Colorado.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 29, 10:18 AM MST, 2 hours 16 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1118 AM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mountain storms develop each afternoon with coverage increasing throughout the week ahead. - Unseasonably warm conditions remain in place through mid week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 333 AM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Isolated to scattered storms return to the high terrain this afternoon, especially along and north of I-70. While the atmosphere is still rather dry with high pressure building in, enough moisture is progged to be present to produce convection. With the dry near-surface layer remaining in place, gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph and fire starts are the primary thunderstorm threats today. Wetting rains are not anticipated (<20% chance). Temperatures remain unseasonably warm area wide with afternoon highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal for late June. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 157 PM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025 High pressure will still be overhead Monday as a deep area of low pressure spins off the California Coast. Models have been fairly consistent in this regard. During the day Monday, PWATs slowly increase across the area and with this increased moisture, chances (30 to 40%) also increase for a few showers or storms to form, mainly along the Continental Divide. The low pressure will drift eastward some on Tuesday, just enough to start advecting some deeper moisture into the region under broad southwesterly flow. PWATs by Tuesday afternoon/evening will reach anywhere from 150 to 170% of normal early July values. As of now, the best chances (still 30 to 40%) exist over the San Juans for showers and storms. By Wednesday, the low opens up and becomes an upper level trough. Minor pieces of energy will also be rotating up from the south. PWATs Wednesday afternoon will reach 200% of normal and as these 2 features interact with the moisture, an increase in showers and storms is anticipated. The deterministic GFS and EC are on board with this scenario while the NBM is still not as aggressive. Not surprised as there is still plenty of time to nail down the specifics. That being said, the trough pushes through on Thursday bringing another round of precipitation to the eastern UT and the Western Slope. PWATs remain well above normal at 200% but it appears the deepest moisture may shift to the central and northern portions of the CWA. A rather weak, transitory ridge then builds in for Friday and Saturday. Some lingering moisture will allow some convection to fire in the afternoon and evening and we'll be back to the Divide for favored locations. As mentioned, some discrepancies remain with this forecast but confidence does continue to increase for a period of unsettled weather for midweek. Temperatures through Tuesday will remain above normal and then drop to near normal Wednesday onwards thanks to increased cloud cover and precipitation. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1116 AM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Isolated to scattered showers are expected this afternoon at and around some of the sites. Wind gusts of 30-50 mph are possible with these showers. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...KAA LONG TERM...TGR AVIATION...TGJT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 216 AM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-301200- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops-Upper Gunnison River Valley- Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide-Northwest San Juan Mountains- Southwest San Juan Mountains-Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 216 AM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Colorado, southwest Colorado, west central Colorado, east central Utah, northeast Utah and southeast Utah. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely over the high terrain this afternoon. Storms may produce gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph and small hail. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Thunderstorms are likely each afternoon through the seven-day forecast, especially over the high terrain. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Spencer Fire started in late June due to a human caused incident in which a vehicle fire quickly spread about 2 miles west-southwest of Blue Mountain, Colorado. The fire grew to 237 acres before it was contained 6 hours later on the same day.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, June 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1274975.