NWS Reno, NV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 15, 2:29 AM PST, 7 hours 31 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area forecast discussion, Mar 15, 2:29 AM PST, 7 hours 31 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
329 AM PDT Sat Mar 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* A brief lull in the active weather pattern for today, with below
average temperatures and lighter winds.
* Another winter storm will move in with strong winds starting
Sunday afternoon, then heavy Sierra snowfall arrives Sunday
night through Monday.
* After the early week storm, chilly temperatures Tuesday will be
followed by slight warming and periods of additional unsettled
weather mid-late next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
* After Friday's round of gusty winds and higher elevation
snowfall, most of the area will get a break in the active
weather today. High resolution models have some light snow
showers across western Lassen toward Lassen Volcanic National
Park/Fredonyer Pass. Any accumulations will be light, with a
trace to at best 2". Temperatures for today will be around 10
degrees below average for mid-March. Winds will be much calmer
today areawide, but along the ridges from northern Mono County
into the Tahoe area could see wind gusts of 55-65 mph.
* The next system to impact the region is still on track to move
into the area Sunday and continue into Monday evening. There is
increasing confidence that this system will produce strong,
possibly damaging winds Sunday morning into the evening along
with heavy impactful snowfall in the Sierra.
* From the initial high-resolution model simulations, light snow
begins in Lassen County (west of US-395) by around 10am to noon,
with heavier snow by around 4-6pm. Light snow makes it into the
Tahoe area by around 4-6pm, with heavier snowfall by around
9-11pm. Most of the snowfall waits until 12-2am to reach the
crests in Mono County, with the heavier rates by around 4-6am.
As this heavier band of snowfall associated with the cold front
progresses south, there is around a 6-12 hour period where snow
rates are upwards 1-2"/hr. Snow levels through most of Sunday
will range from 5,500-6,000' in Lassen, 6,500' in Tahoe, to
around 7,000' in Mono County. These snow levels then drop
through Sunday night into Monday as cold air filters into the
region. Given that it's mid-March, snow liquid ratios will be
steady around 8-10:1 for a majority of Sunday, increasing to
around 10-12:1 by Monday morning.
* From northern Mono County northward, blended guidance has a
likely 80% chance for at least a foot of snow or more along the
Sierra crest above 7,000'. Farther south into Mono County toward
Mammoth Mountain, there is just a 20% chance for a foot of
snow. As such, we have issued new Winter Storm Warnings have
been issued for Lassen County above 5,000' and the Tahoe Basin.
A Winter Weather Advisory has been hoisted for Mono County. For
more details in timing and amounts, please visit
www.weather.gov/rev/winter.
* As for winds, models and blended guidance shows very strong
winds developing across the region prior to the arrival of the
cold front late Sunday. The strongest winds are still forecasted
to be along the Sierra front in the greater Reno metro area, the
inner basin and range primarily north of Mineral County, eastern
Lassen and the Surprise Valley in northeast CA, and northern
Washoe. Southwest winds will develop Sunday morning with
potential for widespread gusts of 45-55 mph and even higher
gusts upwards of 65 mph in wind prone areas. As such, both High
Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories have been hoisted across the
area. Please visit www.weather.gov/rev for more details
* After this system exits the region, we dry out Tuesday into
Wednesday morning. Additional systems are possible Wednesday and
also on Friday, with the best chances for more precipitation
north of US-50 in western NV and in the eastern Sierra.
-McKellar
&&
.AVIATION...
* For today, FL100 winds remain near 40-45 kts, with westerly
sustained winds of 10-15 kts and gusts of 20-25 kts at all W.NV
and Sierra terminals. This will produce areas of mountain wave
turbulence.
* Remnant light snow showers will continue through daybreak at
KTRK and KTVL. Western Nevada terminals (KRNO, KCXP, KMEV) will
see mainly VFR conditions.
* A stronger storm system Sunday afternoon into Monday will bring
gusty southwest winds (35-50 kts), significant mountain wave
turbulence and LLWS. Also, heavy Sierra snowfall with IFR/LIFR
conditions likely at Sierra terminals and potential impacts
extending into western NV. -McKellar
&&
.AVALANCHE...
Sunday-Monday Storm:
* For the Sierra Avalanche Center: Total SWE between 1.5-2.5",
SLRs of initially 8-10:1 Sunday increasing to 10-12:1 by Sunday
night. Snow levels start around 6,500' on Sunday, then drop to
5,000' Monday morning. Overall rates of 0.5-1"/hr at the start
of the storm, which will increase to 1-2"/hr when the heavier
band of snow moves through the area Sunday night into Monday
morning. Ridge top winds gusts upwards of 80-100 mph from the
W/SW.
* For the Bridgeport and Eastern Sierra avalanche Centers: Total
SWE between 0.5-1.25", SLRs of initially 8-10:1 Sunday
increasing to 10-12:1 by Sunday night. Snow levels start around
7,000' on Sunday, then drop to 6,000' Monday morning. Overall
rates of 0.5-1"/hr at the start of the storm, which will
increase to 1-2"/hr when the heavier band of snow moves through
the area Monday morning. Ridge top winds gusts upwards of 80-100
mph from the W/SW. -McKellar
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Sunday NVZ003>005.
Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Monday NVZ002.
CA...High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Sunday CAZ070.
Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Monday
CAZ071.
Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Monday CAZ072.
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM PDT Monday CAZ073.
&&