Heavy Rain in California, June 3, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Diego CA
300 PM PDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms for this afternoon into tonight across Southern
California and the coastal waters, decreasing late tonight. There
is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday
afternoon, mainly for the mountains. Drier with a warming trend
for Thursday into the weekend with high temperatures for Sunday
and Monday around 4 to 8 degrees above average for inland areas.
Dry and warm conditions continue into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

This afternoon...Organized bands of showers and tstms have
developed over the San Bernardino Mountains and over the coastal
waters about 10 miles east of San Clemente Island. These bands are
likely to shift south and east as the closed upper low continues
to move in that direction. The convective cells will continue to
move northwest with the flow around the upper low. This will
bring ISOLD-SCT showers and tstms to the mountains and slight
chances for showers/tstms elsewhere. Thunderstorms could produce
locally gusty winds, small hail, lightning and periods of locally
heavy rain. Minor flooding will be possible in those areas that
experience heavy rain. The marine layer low clouds are clearing
but could return late tonight.

From previous discussion...
The closed upper low will continue to move south and east through
tonight, becoming an open wave over AZ by late Wednesday morning.
It will produce chances for SCT/ISOLD showers/tstms across all
parts of SoCal into early Wed morning. Residual moisture and
daytime heating could maintain chances for showers/tstms over the
mtns again Wed afternoon.

Some high-resolution WRF models show rainfall totals of as much
as 2-3 inches in the mountains while others show around 1 to 1.5
inches. NBM probabilities for one-half inch of rainfall is as
much as 30 percent for portions of the San Bernardino County
mountains and adjacent desert areas with isolated locations with
around a 10 percent chance for one-inch or more of rainfall.
Shower and thunderstorms are expected to decrease late tonight
with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday
afternoon, mainly in the mountains.

High temperatures for today and Wednesday will be mostly a few to
around 5 degrees below average with Thursday a few degrees warmer
with drying. Warm and dry weather with seasonal marine layer low
clouds and fog during the nights and mornings will continue into
early next week under broad low pressure troughing.

&&

.AVIATION...
032100Z....Coasts/Valleys...Low clouds look to surge back inland
after 00Z initially across San Diego County, eventually spreading
northward into Orange County and the Inland Empire overnight into
Wednesday, with similar coverage/timing and cloud bases as this
morning, at roughly around 1000 ft MSL for the coastal areas, to
around 1500 ft MSL inland. There will be a 30% chance of
thunderstorms until 09Z late this evening. Any thunderstorm could
produce gusty, erratic winds to 25 knots or locally greater,
dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning, and small hail.

.Mountains/Deserts...VFR conditions with SCT to BKN clouds AOA
10000 feet MSL with -SHRA and TSRA is expected. A chance of
thunderstorms will continue to be possible through 09Z, with the
highest chance of 30-60% from 00-06Z. Any thunderstorm could
produce gusty, erratic winds to 40 knots, lightning, and hail up
to half an inch in diameter.

&&

.MARINE...
An unstable weather system will bring a chance of thunderstorms to
the coastal waters through tonight, most likely this evening. Any
thunderstorm could produce gusty, erratic winds of 34 knots or
greater, lightning, small hail, and/or a waterspout. A Marine
Weather Statement contains more details.

No additional hazardous marine conditions are expected Wednesday
through Saturday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Elevated surf of 3 to 5 feet with sets to 6 feet are expected for
the rest of today, primarily for south to southwest facing beaches.
Also, there is a chance of thunderstorms that could produce
lightning through early tonight. A Beach Hazards Statement has the
details.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for Orange County
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.

&&

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Westerink